Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: TMAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

TM AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Toyota Motor Corporation is a global vehicle manufacturer offering passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and financial services. In FY2026, the company generated $50.68T in revenue with net income of $3.99T, while quarterly revenue grew 10.4% year-over-year in the period ended June 30, 2026. The stock closed at $194.61 with a trailing P/E ratio of 8.6x.

Market cap
$229.21B
Revenue (TTM)
$51.96T
P/E
8.6x
fwd 10.9x
1Y return
2.9%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$234.08
20.3% vs last close

Bull case

  • Toyota posted 86.9% year-over-year earnings growth in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • Free cash flow turned positive to $179.57B in FY2026, supported by $5.47T in operating cash flow.
  • Analysts maintain a mean price target of $234.08, indicating 20.3% upside above the closing price of $194.61.

Bear case

  • Operating margin declined from 11.9% in FY2024 to 7.4% in FY2026.
  • The balance sheet carries $33.39T in net debt and total debt of $43.66T as of June 30, 2026.
  • Toyota's 1-year return of 2.9% significantly underperformed the S&P 500 return of 16.8%.

What Toyota Motor does

Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans, commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories. The company operates through three segments: Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other. Its portfolio includes hybrid vehicles under the Prius brand, fuel cell models under MIRAI, conventional vehicles like the Corolla and Raize, luxury and sports cars such as the GR Yaris, Corolla Cross, and Supra, and trucks like the Tacoma. Toyota also delivers retail and wholesale financing, leasing, insurance, and credit cards, alongside prefabricated housing design and its GAZOO.com auto information portal.

Growth and profitability

Toyota increased annual revenue from $31.38T in FY2022 to $50.68T in FY2026, delivering a 5-year revenue CAGR of 13.2% from FY2021 to FY2026. Net income reached $3.99T in FY2026, compared to $4.77T in FY2025 and $4.94T in FY2024. Operating margin contracted to 7.4% in FY2026 from 10.0% in FY2025 and 11.9% in FY2024. Gross margin stood at 16.7% in FY2026. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 10.4% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings expanded 86.9% year-over-year.

TM income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Toyota held $10.27T in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $43.66T, resulting in net debt of $33.39T. Total assets were $101.96T and shareholders' equity was $37.06T, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.18 and a current ratio of 1.17. In FY2026, operating cash flow reached $5.47T and free cash flow turned positive at $179.57B after capital expenditures of $5.29T. The company directed cash toward $1.24T in dividends and $39.98B in share buybacks.

TM balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Toyota trades at a trailing P/E of 8.6x and a forward P/E of 10.9x, both below the median of its US-listed Consumer Cyclical peers at 18.0x and 14.1x, respectively. Its enterprise value stands at $421.83B, with an EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 7.6x compared to the peer median of 11.1x. Over the past year, the stock returned 2.9%, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year period, Toyota gained 27.9% compared to 83.0% for the S&P 500.

TM key metrics →

TM dividend

Toyota pays an annual forward dividend of $6.27 per share, representing a 3.22% dividend yield and a payout ratio of 27.9%. The company has paid dividends for 43 consecutive years and posted a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 8.8%. Its last ex-dividend date was September 30, 2026.

TM dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street analysts hold 2 Strong Buy and 2 Buy ratings on Toyota, with zero Hold, Sell, or Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target is $234.08, representing 20.3% upside relative to the last close of $194.61. For the current fiscal year ending March 31, 2027, consensus estimates project EPS of $18.33 and revenue of $53.97T. The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 4, 2026.

TM forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Earnings per share for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027, are projected to decline 2.8% to $18.33.
  • Gross margin compressed from 20.8% in FY2024 to 16.7% in FY2026.
  • Capital expenditures of $5.29T in FY2026 represent a substantial ongoing cash commitment against $5.47T in operating cash flow.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this TM AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Toyota Motor Corporation (TM). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: TM income statement, TM balance sheet, TM key metrics, TM analyst forecast, TM chart. See the TM stock overview for the latest quote and news.

TM AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Toyota's dividend yield and payment track record?

Toyota offers a dividend yield of 3.22% with an annual forward dividend of $6.27. It has maintained dividend payments for 43 consecutive years with a 27.9% payout ratio.

How did Toyota perform in its most recent quarter?

For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Toyota recorded 10.4% year-over-year revenue growth and an 86.9% year-over-year increase in earnings.

What are analysts forecasting for Toyota's stock price and earnings?

Analysts have a mean price target of $234.08, which is 20.3% above the close of $194.61. For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027, EPS is estimated at $18.33 on $53.97T in revenue.

How does Toyota's valuation compare to sector peers?

Toyota trades at a trailing P/E of 8.6x and EV/EBITDA of 7.6x, compared to the US-listed Consumer Cyclical peer medians of 18.0x and 11.1x, respectively.

More Consumer Cyclical AI stock analysis