Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) AI Stock Analysis
NLY AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchAnnaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a mortgage real estate investment trust specializing in mortgage finance and corporate middle market lending. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, the company generated $3.25B in revenue with a profit margin of 90.7%. Annaly offers a forward dividend yield of 16.46% while carrying $124.94B in total debt against $16.93B in shareholders' equity.
- Market cap
- $13.74B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $3.25B
- P/E
- 4.5x fwd 6.5x
- 1Y return
- 1.7% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $22.64 24.2% vs last close
Bull case
- Annaly offers a high forward dividend yield of 16.46% backed by 30 consecutive years of dividend payments.
- The stock trades at a forward P/E of 6.5x, well below the US-listed Real Estate peer median of 23.5x.
- Analysts project a mean price target of $22.64, indicating a 24.2% premium over the closing price of $18.23.
Bear case
- The company carries $124.94B in total debt with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 7.38 and a current ratio of 0.04.
- Free cash flow turned negative at -$222.2M in FY2025, down from positive $2.45B in FY2024.
- Annaly has lagged the broader market, returning 1.7% over the past year compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500.
What Annaly Capital Management does
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. operates as a diversified capital manager specializing in mortgage finance and corporate middle market lending. The company's investment strategy encompasses a wide range of assets including agency mortgage-backed securities, mortgage servicing rights, commercial mortgage-backed securities issued by agencies, non-agency residential mortgage assets, residential mortgage loans, credit risk transfer securities, corporate debts, and other commercial real estate investments. Annaly has elected to operate as a real estate investment trust (REIT), which exempts it from federal income tax provided that it distributes its taxable income to shareholders. Headquartered in New York, the company was established in 1996 and had 212 employees.
Growth and profitability
Annaly recorded a 5-year revenue CAGR of 35.2% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual revenue shifted from $751.4M in FY2021 to $4.15B in FY2022, dropped to -$1.65B in FY2023, and recovered to $6.36B in FY2024 and $6.70B in FY2025. Net income was $2.39B in FY2021, $1.73B in FY2022, -$1.64B in FY2023, $1.00B in FY2024, and $2.03B in FY2025. For FY2025, operating margin reached 102.6% and net margin stood at 30.3%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 479.4% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings increased 3426.0% year-over-year. TTM revenue reached $3.25B with diluted EPS of $4.08.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Annaly held $2.91B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $124.94B, resulting in net debt of $122.03B. Shareholders' equity was $16.93B, translating to a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.38 and a current ratio of 0.04. In FY2025, operating cash flow was $692.9M, while free cash flow stood at -$222.2M following capital expenditures of $915.1M. During FY2025, the company deployed $14.2M toward share buybacks and paid $1.88B in dividends, alongside a 101.3% increase in share count over 5 years.
Valuation and performance
At a last close of $18.23, Annaly has a market cap of $13.74B and an enterprise value of $140.34B. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 4.5x and a forward P/E of 6.5x, compared to medians of 21.6x and 23.5x for its US-listed Real Estate peers. Its price-to-sales ratio is 4.2x versus the peer median of 3.7x, while price-to-book is 1.0x. Over the past year, the stock returned 1.7% compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500 (SPY). Over five years, Annaly returned 5.7% against 83.0% for the index.
NLY dividend
Annaly pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward rate of $3.00, yielding 16.46% against a payout ratio of 96.0%. The company has paid dividends for 30 consecutive years, though its 5-year annualized dividend growth declined 5.1%. The last ex-dividend date was September 30, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analysts maintain 5 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, and 4 Hold ratings on Annaly, with zero Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $22.64, representing 24.2% upside from the last close of $18.23. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $3.08 on revenue of $2.09B. The company beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is October 20, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- The dividend payout ratio stands at 96.0%, leaving limited cushion if earnings soften relative to the FY2026 consensus estimate of $3.08 per share.
- High balance sheet leverage is indicated by total debt of $124.94B against $16.93B in shareholders' equity.
- Historical results show notable earnings instability, including net income of -$1.64B and revenue of -$1.65B in FY2023.
- Shareholder dilution has been substantial, with total share count expanding 101.3% over the past 5 years.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this NLY AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: NLY income statement, NLY balance sheet, NLY key metrics, NLY analyst forecast, NLY chart. See the NLY stock overview for the latest quote and news.
NLY AI stock analysis FAQ
What does Annaly Capital Management do?
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is a mortgage REIT that manages an investment portfolio of agency mortgage-backed securities, mortgage servicing rights, residential mortgage loans, commercial real estate assets, and corporate debt.
What is Annaly's dividend yield and payout schedule?
Annaly pays a quarterly dividend with an annual forward amount of $3.00 per share, representing a dividend yield of 16.46% and a payout ratio of 96.0%.
How much debt does Annaly carry on its balance sheet?
As of June 30, 2026, Annaly had total debt of $124.94B and cash and short-term investments of $2.91B, resulting in net debt of $122.03B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.38.
What are Wall Street analysts forecasting for NLY stock?
Analysts maintain a mean price target of $22.64, representing 24.2% upside from the $18.23 close, alongside consensus FY2026 EPS expectations of $3.08.