Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) AI Stock Analysis

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate investment trust specializing in originating, acquiring, and managing a diversified portfolio of commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other debt investments within the United States. Founded in 2009 and headquartered in New York, New York, the company functions as a qualified REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. Under these tax rules, it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders to minimize federal income taxes. The trust focuses on prudent underwriting, active asset management, and risk diversification across commercial properties.

Revenue expanded from $421.2M in FY2021 to $641.3M in FY2022 and peaked at $777.0M in FY2023, before falling 9.7% to $701.5M in FY2024. In FY2025, revenue recovered slightly by 1.3% to $710.5M, establishing a 5-year revenue CAGR of 27.5% from FY2020. Net income shifted from $223.5M in FY2021 to -$119.6M in FY2024, rebounding to $126.7M in FY2025 with a net margin of 17.8%. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $624.3M with an operating margin of 91.2%. For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 524.9% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings fell 10.0%.

As of June 30, 2026, ARI held $1.24B in cash and short-term investments compared to $371.4M in total debt, providing a net cash balance of $868.1M. Shareholders' equity was $1.25B against $2.14B in total assets. The trust maintained a current ratio of 2.43 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30. During FY2025, operating cash flow stood at $142.5M, which supported $100.2M in capital expenditures, $5.0M in share buybacks, and $153.5M in dividend distributions.

Trading at $6.38, ARI has a market capitalization of $820.1M and an enterprise value of -$50.0M. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 8.0x, below the 21.6x median of its US-listed Real Estate peers. Its forward P/E of 15.5x also trades below the peer median of 23.5x, alongside a price-to-book ratio of 0.6x. ARI delivered a 1-year return of 63.7%, outperforming the 16.8% gain for the S&P 500 (SPY), though its 5-year return of 71.6% trailed the index return of 83.0%.

ARI pays an annual forward dividend of $1.00 per share, delivering a dividend yield of 15.67% and a payout ratio of 13.2%. The company has sustained regular distributions for 17 consecutive years, although its 5-year annualized dividend growth stands at -7.2%. The trust listed October 30, 2026 as its last ex-dividend date.

Wall Street coverage consists of 1 Strong Buy, 2 Buys, and 1 Hold rating, with no Sell recommendations. Analysts set a mean price target of $8.00, implying a 25.4% premium over the last close of $6.38. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus expectations project revenue of $42.0M and an EPS of -$2.76. ARI exceeded EPS forecasts in 2 of the trailing 4 quarters, with its next earnings release scheduled for October 29, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: ARI income statement, ARI balance sheet, ARI key metrics, ARI analyst forecast, ARI chart. See the ARI stock overview for the latest quote and news.