Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) AI Stock Analysis
RITM AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchRithm Capital Corp. is a mortgage real estate investment trust managing real estate and financial services assets across the United States. In FY2025, revenue rose 20.0% to $5.69B, but quarterly earnings fell 93.2% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The stock offers an 11.55% dividend yield while carrying $40.23B in total debt.
- Market cap
- $4.84B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $4.32B
- P/E
- 14.4x fwd 4.1x
- 1Y return
- -10.1% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $13.00 50.1% vs last close
Bull case
- Analysts maintain a positive outlook with 7 Strong Buy and 4 Buy ratings alongside a mean price target of $13.00.
- The stock delivers an 11.55% forward dividend yield supported by 14 consecutive years of dividend payments.
- RITM trades at a forward P/E of 4.1x, representing a discount to the US-listed Real Estate peer median of 23.5x.
Bear case
- In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly earnings fell 93.2% year-over-year.
- The balance sheet carries $40.23B in total debt against $8.52B in shareholders' equity, yielding a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.72.
- Free cash flow remained negative in FY2025 at -$762.6M after finishing at -$2.32B in FY2024.
What Rithm Capital does
Rithm Capital Corp. is a provider of capital and specialized services within the real estate and financial services sectors across the United States. Its investment portfolio encompasses mortgage servicing related assets, residential securities and loans, and consumer loans. Structured as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for federal income tax purposes, the company distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders. Originally founded in 2011 as New Residential Investment Corp. before rebranding in August 2022, the New York-based company focuses on strategic asset allocation, cash flow generation, and active portfolio management.
Growth and profitability
Rithm Capital Corp. saw revenue drop from $2.90B in FY2021 to $1.67B in FY2022 and $1.29B in FY2023, before rebounding 266.0% to $4.74B in FY2024 and growing 20.0% to $5.69B in FY2025. Net income was $772.2M in FY2021, $954.5M in FY2022, $532.7M in FY2023, $931.5M in FY2024, and $681.4M in FY2025, reflecting a net margin of 12.0% in FY2025. Diluted EPS reached $2.34 in FY2025. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue was $4.32B with an operating margin of 7.9%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue grew 9.7% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings fell 93.2%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Rithm Capital Corp. held $6.55B in cash and short-term investments alongside total debt of $40.23B, resulting in net debt of $33.67B. Shareholders' equity stood at $8.52B, supporting a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.72 and a current ratio of 1.12. Operating cash flow was -$762.6M in FY2025, matching free cash flow of -$762.6M. Capital allocation in FY2025 included $643.2M in dividends paid and $50.0M in share buybacks.
Valuation and performance
With a market cap of $4.84B and an enterprise value of $42.30B, Rithm Capital Corp. trades at a trailing P/E of 14.4x and a forward P/E of 4.1x. These multiples sit below the median of its US-listed Real Estate peers, which trade at a trailing P/E of 21.6x and a forward P/E of 23.5x. Its price-to-sales ratio of 1.1x is also below the peer median of 3.7x. Over the past year, the stock fell 10.1%, underperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over five years, RITM gained 27.1% compared to 83.0% for the S&P 500.
RITM dividend
RITM pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward payout of $1.00 per share, delivering an 11.55% dividend yield and a payout ratio of 41.8%. The company has distributed dividends for 14 consecutive years and generated a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 14.9%. Its last ex-dividend date was October 1, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analysts cover RITM with 7 Strong Buy ratings, 4 Buy ratings, and zero Hold, Sell, or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target of $13.00 implies 50.1% upside from the last close of $8.66. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $5.84B and EPS of $2.29. The company has beaten EPS expectations in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is October 23, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Net debt of $33.67B exposes the company to financing risks relative to its $4.84B market cap.
- Free cash flow has been negative for two consecutive years, totaling -$762.6M in FY2025 and -$2.32B in FY2024.
- The trailing twelve-month operating margin of 7.9% trails the US-listed Real Estate peer median of 25.9%.
- Shareholder returns have lagged the broader market, posting a 1-year return of -10.1% compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this RITM AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: RITM income statement, RITM balance sheet, RITM key metrics, RITM analyst forecast, RITM chart. See the RITM stock overview for the latest quote and news.
RITM AI stock analysis FAQ
What is RITM's dividend yield and payment frequency?
Rithm Capital Corp. pays a quarterly dividend with an annual forward rate of $1.00 per share, which equates to an 11.55% dividend yield as of October 16, 2026. The company has maintained dividend payments for 14 consecutive years.
How much debt does Rithm Capital Corp. carry?
As of June 30, 2026, Rithm Capital Corp. had $40.23B in total debt and $6.55B in cash and short-term investments, leaving net debt at $33.67B. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 4.72.
What are analysts forecasting for RITM's financial results?
For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $5.84B and EPS of $2.29. For the next fiscal year, 11 analysts project revenue will increase 7.8% to $6.29B with EPS reaching $2.33.
How does RITM's valuation compare to real estate sector peers?
RITM trades at a trailing P/E of 14.4x and a forward P/E of 4.1x, both lower than the median of its US-listed Real Estate peers at 21.6x and 23.5x. It also trades at a price-to-book ratio of 0.8x.