Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) AI Stock Analysis
FLO AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchFlowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) is a producer and distributor of packaged bakery goods operating 46 bakeries nationwide. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $5.22B in revenue with a net profit margin of 1.1% and diluted EPS of $0.27. Shares closed at $6.11 on October 16, 2026, offering an 8.18% dividend yield alongside a total debt burden of $2.01B.
- Market cap
- $1.30B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $5.22B
- P/E
- 22.6x fwd 22.9x
- 1Y return
- -47.1% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $7.40 21.1% vs last close
Bull case
- Free cash flow increased from $198.4M in FY2021 to $319.1M in FY2025, comfortably exceeding FY2025 dividend payments of $209.3M.
- Flowers Foods offers an 8.18% forward dividend yield backed by 25 consecutive years of dividend payments.
- Wall Street analysts set a mean price target of $7.40, representing 21.1% potential upside from the October 16, 2026 close of $6.11.
Bear case
- Net income declined significantly from $248.1M in FY2024 to $83.8M in FY2025, compressing net margin to 1.6%.
- Analysts project current fiscal year EPS to fall 29.1% to $0.77, followed by a further 11.4% decline to $0.68 in the next fiscal year.
- The balance sheet carries $1.96B in net debt with a current ratio of 0.77 and only $52.8M in cash and short-term investments.
What Flowers Foods does
Flowers Foods, Inc. produces and distributes packaged bakery products across the United States. Its brand portfolio includes Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, Mrs. Freshley's, and Tastykake. Product categories feature fresh breads, buns, rolls, snack cakes, tortillas, and frozen breads and rolls. The company distributes through direct-store-delivery and warehouse delivery networks to supermarkets, mass merchandisers, convenience stores, restaurants, institutions, and dollar stores. Operating 46 bakeries—44 owned and two leased—Flowers Foods was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia.
Growth and profitability
Between FY2021 and FY2025, Flowers Foods increased annual revenue from $4.33B to $5.26B, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 3.7%. Operating margin was 6.8% in FY2021, fell to 3.4% in FY2023, recovered to 6.8% in FY2024, and dropped to 3.3% in FY2025. Annual net income declined from $206.2M in FY2021 to $83.8M in FY2025, bringing net margin to 1.6%. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $5.22B with an operating margin of 6.2% and EPS of $0.27. In the latest quarter, quarterly revenue grew 6.8% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings expanded 20.0%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Flowers Foods held $52.8M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $2.01B, resulting in net debt of $1.96B. The company recorded a current ratio of 0.77 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.52 on shareholders' equity of $1.32B. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $446.2M and free cash flow was $319.1M. Cash deployment during FY2025 included capital expenditures of $127.1M, share buybacks of $5.5M, and dividends paid of $209.3M.
Valuation and performance
At a closing price of $6.11, Flowers Foods trades at a trailing P/E of 22.6x and a forward P/E of 22.9x, above the median of its US-listed Consumer Defensive peers of 18.6x and 14.3x, respectively. Its enterprise value to EBITDA ratio is 9.7x, compared to the peer median of 11.7x, while its price-to-sales ratio is 0.2x versus the peer median of 0.7x. Over the past year, FLO returned -47.1% compared to a 16.8% return for the S&P 500 (SPY). Over five years, the stock fell 68.5% while SPY gained 83.0%.
FLO dividend
Flowers Foods pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward rate of $0.50, yielding 8.18%. The company has paid dividends for 25 consecutive years and recorded a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 4.5%. Its payout ratio stands at 78.4%, with the last ex-dividend date on September 11, 2026. In FY2025, total dividend payments totaled $209.3M.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage comprises 1 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 3 Hold, and 1 Sell rating. The mean price target of $7.40 implies an upside of 21.1% over the last close of $6.11. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $0.77 (a decline of 29.1%) on revenue of $5.08B. Across the last 4 quarters, the company delivered 2 EPS beats. The next earnings release is scheduled for November 5, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- A high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.52 and total debt of $2.01B limit financial flexibility.
- Short interest represents 22.8% of the float, indicating elevated market skepticism.
- The dividend payout ratio stands at 78.4%, which could face pressure if earnings continue contracting toward the estimated $0.68 per share.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this FLO AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: FLO income statement, FLO balance sheet, FLO key metrics, FLO analyst forecast, FLO chart. See the FLO stock overview for the latest quote and news.
FLO AI stock analysis FAQ
What is Flowers Foods' dividend yield and payout schedule?
Flowers Foods pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward payout of $0.50 per share, which equals a dividend yield of 8.18%. The payout ratio is 78.4%, and the company has paid dividends for 25 consecutive years.
What is the analyst price target for FLO stock?
The mean price target across analysts is $7.40, which is 21.1% above the last closing price of $6.11 on October 16, 2026. Among five tracked ratings, there is 1 Strong Buy, 3 Holds, and 1 Sell.
How much debt does Flowers Foods hold?
As of June 30, 2026, Flowers Foods had $2.01B in total debt and $52.8M in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $1.96B. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 1.52 and its current ratio is 0.77.
When does Flowers Foods report its next quarterly earnings?
Flowers Foods is scheduled to report its next financial results on November 5, 2026. Over the prior 4 quarters, the company beat EPS estimates twice.