The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) AI Stock Analysis
SJM AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchThe J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) is a packaged foods manufacturer with $9.16B in trailing twelve-month revenue. Despite GAAP net income volatility including a -$138.7M net loss in FY2026, the company generated $1.16B in free cash flow. SJM stock has returned 27.7% over the past year and pays a 3.52% forward dividend yield.
- Market cap
- $13.61B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $9.16B
- P/E
- 59.5x fwd 12.0x
- 1Y return
- 27.7% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $141.81 11.3% vs last close
Bull case
- Free cash flow expanded to $1.16B in FY2026, comfortably funding $464.7M in dividend payments.
- The stock trades at a forward P/E of 12.0x, below the 15.3x median of its S&P 500 Consumer Defensive peers.
- Analyst consensus projects current fiscal year EPS growth of 17.7% to $10.77.
Bear case
- Net income remained negative at -$138.7M in FY2026 following a -$1.23B loss in FY2025.
- Balance sheet leverage is elevated with $6.85B in net debt against only $43.2M in cash and short-term investments.
- Long-term revenue growth has been modest, reflecting a 5-year CAGR of 2.5% from FY2021 to FY2026.
What Smucker does
The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products across three main segments: U.S. Retail Pet Foods, U.S. Retail Coffee, and U.S. Retail Consumer Foods. Its portfolio spans coffee, pet foods and snacks, peanut butter, fruit spreads, frozen sandwiches, and other consumer foods. The company markets well-known brands including Folgers, Dunkin', Jif, Smucker's, Meow Mix, Kibbles 'n Bits, Milk-Bone, and Rachael Ray Nutrish. It sells to food retailers, club stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, and mass merchandisers, as well as through direct sales and brokers.
Growth and profitability
Revenue reached $9.05B in FY2026, up 3.7% after growing 6.7% to $8.73B in FY2025. Over the five years from FY2021 to FY2026, revenue increased at a compound annual growth rate of 2.5%. Profitability has fluctuated, with gross margin at 33.5% and operating margin at 4.0% in FY2026, improving from an operating margin of -7.7% in FY2025. Net income was -$138.7M in FY2026, compared to -$1.23B in FY2025 and $744.0M in FY2024. For the latest quarter ended July 31, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 5.0% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings declined 2.6%. Trailing twelve-month operating margin stands at 17.9%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of July 31, 2026, SJM held $43.2M in cash and short-term investments against $6.90B in total debt, leaving net debt at $6.85B. The debt-to-equity ratio was 1.20, and the current ratio stood at 0.87 against total assets of $16.20B and shareholders' equity of $5.75B. Operating cash flow reached $1.47B in FY2026. Capital allocation in FY2026 included $317.4M in capital expenditures, $464.7M in dividends paid, and $5.6M in share buybacks.
Valuation and performance
At $127.43, SJM trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 59.5x and a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0x, compared to medians of 23.3x and 15.3x for its S&P 500 Consumer Defensive peers. Its enterprise value to EBITDA ratio is 14.8x versus the peer median of 13.3x, and price-to-sales is 1.5x compared to the peer median of 1.8x. Over the past year, SJM gained 27.7%, outperforming the S&P 500 return of 16.8%, though its 5-year return of 24.2% trails the index return of 83.0%.
SJM dividend
SJM pays an annualized forward dividend of $4.48 per share, representing a 3.52% dividend yield at a payout ratio of 42.1%. The dividend is distributed quarterly and has been paid for 33 consecutive years. Over the past five years, the dividend has grown at an annualized rate of 4.1%. Its last ex-dividend date was August 14, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage consists of 7 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, and 9 Hold ratings, with no Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $141.81, which sits 11.3% above the October 16, 2026 closing price of $127.43. For the fiscal year ending April 30, 2027, consensus estimates project EPS of $10.77 on revenue of $8.93B. SJM has beaten EPS expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 24, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- A current ratio of 0.87 and debt-to-equity of 1.20 highlight tight liquidity relative to short-term obligations.
- The trailing twelve-month profit margin is thin at 2.5%, leaving little buffer against margin compression.
- The trailing P/E multiple of 59.5x is significantly elevated relative to the peer group median of 23.3x.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this SJM AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: SJM income statement, SJM balance sheet, SJM key metrics, SJM analyst forecast, SJM chart. See the SJM stock overview for the latest quote and news.
SJM AI stock analysis FAQ
What is SJM's dividend yield and track record?
SJM offers an annual forward dividend of $4.48 per share, which translates to a 3.52% yield. The company has paid dividends for 33 consecutive years, with an annualized 5-year dividend growth rate of 4.1%.
How much debt does The J. M. Smucker Company carry?
As of July 31, 2026, SJM had $6.90B in total debt and $43.2M in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $6.85B. Its debt-to-equity ratio was 1.20.
What are analysts forecasting for SJM's current fiscal year?
For the fiscal year ending April 30, 2027, analysts estimate EPS of $10.77, representing 17.7% growth, alongside revenue of $8.93B.
How has SJM stock performed relative to the broader market?
Over the past year, SJM returned 27.7%, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year period, however, SJM's 24.2% return lagged the S&P 500's 83.0% gain.