Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) AI Stock Analysis
POST AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchPost Holdings, Inc. (POST) is a diversified packaged foods holding company operating across cereal, foodservice, and refrigerated retail segments. The company generated $8.16B in FY2025 revenue and $488.1M in free cash flow, but carries substantial leverage with $7.37B in net debt. Its stock has fallen 24.1% over the past year against a 16.8% gain for the broader market.
- Market cap
- $3.45B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $8.41B
- P/E
- 14.3x fwd 28.2x
- 1Y return
- -24.1% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $98.67 25.6% vs last close
Bull case
- Post generated $488.1M in free cash flow in FY2025, funding $709.0M in share repurchases that lowered its 5-year share count by 17.9%.
- The stock trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.8x, representing a discount to the US-listed Consumer Defensive median of 11.7x.
- Analysts maintain a mean price target of $98.67, representing a 25.6% upside over the recent closing price of $78.53.
Bear case
- Post holds $7.37B in net debt against $3.08B in shareholders' equity, resulting in a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.48.
- In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly earnings fell 27.9% year-over-year as revenue slipped 1.8%.
- Consensus estimates for the next fiscal year forecast revenue to decline 2.6% to $7.95B and EPS to decrease 6.0% to $7.19.
What Post does
Established in 1895 and headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri, Post Holdings operates across four primary segments: Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, and Refrigerated Retail. Post Consumer Brands manufactures and markets branded and private-label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereals, hot cereals, and nut butters for retail, club, ecommerce, and foodservice channels. The Weetabix segment distributes RTE cereals, hot cereals, breakfast drinks, and muesli across Europe and international channels. The Foodservice segment produces egg and potato products for national restaurant chains and distributors, while Refrigerated Retail focuses on side dishes, eggs, and sausages.
Growth and profitability
Between FY2021 and FY2025, Post Holdings expanded annual revenue from $4.98B to $8.16B, achieving a 5-year revenue CAGR of 7.4%. Gross margin reached 26.4% in FY2025, while operating margin came in at 10.4%, up from 8.5% in FY2021. Annual net income was $335.7M in FY2025, generating diluted EPS of $7.26. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $8.41B with a net margin of 3.5% and EPS of $5.50. However, in the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue fell 1.8% year-over-year and quarterly earnings dropped 27.9%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Post Holdings held $265.6M in cash and short-term investments against $7.63B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $7.37B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.48. Current assets provided coverage with a current ratio of 1.85. The company delivered $998.3M in operating cash flow and $488.1M in free cash flow during FY2025. Capital allocation in FY2025 included $510.2M in capital expenditures and $709.0M allocated to share buybacks, which contributed to a 17.9% reduction in share count over 5 years.
Valuation and performance
Post Holdings trades at a trailing P/E of 14.3x, below the 18.6x median of its US-listed Consumer Defensive peers. Its forward P/E of 28.2x sits above the peer median of 14.3x, while its EV/EBITDA of 7.8x and price-to-sales of 0.4x compare to peer medians of 11.7x and 0.7x, respectively. The company has an enterprise value of $10.80B compared to a market cap of $3.45B. Over the trailing 12 months, Post shares fell 24.1%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%.
What analysts expect
Wall Street sentiment shows 3 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, and 2 Hold recommendations. The mean price target of $98.67 implies 25.6% upside from the last closing price of $78.53. Post Holdings has beaten consensus EPS expectations in each of the last 4 quarters. For the current fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $8.17B and EPS of $7.65. For the next fiscal year, 7 analysts project revenue will decline 2.6% to $7.95B with EPS of $7.19. The company is scheduled to report earnings on November 19, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- A total debt burden of $7.63B creates high leverage sensitivity relative to its $3.45B market capitalization.
- Short interest represents 15.0% of the float, reflecting meaningful negative market positioning.
- Trailing 12-month net profit margin is thin at 3.5%, leaving little buffer against input cost inflation.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this POST AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Post Holdings, Inc. (POST). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: POST income statement, POST balance sheet, POST key metrics, POST analyst forecast, POST chart. See the POST stock overview for the latest quote and news.
POST AI stock analysis FAQ
Does Post Holdings pay a dividend?
Post Holdings does not pay a dividend. The company directs excess cash flow toward capital expenditures, which totaled $510.2M in FY2025, and share repurchases of $709.0M.
What is Post Holdings' debt load?
As of June 30, 2026, Post Holdings carried $7.63B in total debt and $265.6M in cash, leaving net debt at $7.37B. Its debt-to-equity ratio stood at 2.48.
When does Post Holdings report earnings?
Post Holdings is next scheduled to report quarterly financial results on November 19, 2026. The company has beaten EPS estimates in each of the prior 4 quarters.
How has POST stock performed compared to the broader market?
Post shares have declined 24.1% over the past year and are down 20.7% year-to-date through October 16, 2026. By comparison, the S&P 500 gained 16.8% over the trailing 12-month period.