YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: YPFAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

YPF AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

YPF Sociedad Anónima is an integrated Argentine energy company active in upstream and downstream oil and gas operations as well as power generation. The company generated trailing twelve month revenue of $29.23T and delivered a 97.5% one-year return as of October 16, 2026. However, annual results show earnings volatility, including net income of -$1.20T in FY2025 and total debt of $16.19T as of June 30, 2026.

Market cap
$20.43B
Revenue (TTM)
$29.23T
P/E
27.4x
fwd 5.0x
1Y return
97.5%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$61.80
18.6% vs last close

Bull case

  • In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 72.2% year-over-year while quarterly earnings expanded by 2550.7%.
  • YPF shares gained 97.5% over the past year, substantially outperforming the S&P 500 return of 16.8%.
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of 5.0x and an EV/EBITDA of 4.0x, both well below the US-listed Energy peer medians of 12.7x and 8.0x.

Bear case

  • Annual earnings display high volatility, evidenced by net income of -$1.20T in FY2025 after a profit of $2.08T in FY2024.
  • Heavy capital expenditures of $7.37T in FY2025 resulted in free cash flow of -$171.22B.
  • The company carries total debt of $16.19T and net debt of $12.50T as of June 30, 2026, alongside a current ratio of 0.93.

What YPF Sociedad Anónima does

YPF Sociedad Anónima is an integrated energy company based in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Its upstream segment explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids across 119 oil and gas fields, with reserves of approximately 643 million barrels of oil and 2,447 billion cubic feet of gas as of December 31, 2021. Downstream activities cover refining, marketing, and distributing petroleum products, petrochemicals, LPG, and biofuels via three refineries with an annual capacity of about 120 million barrels. YPF operates roughly 2,800 kilometers of crude pipelines, port terminals, and participates in 21 power generation plants totaling 3,091 megawatts.

Growth and profitability

YPF expanded revenue from $1.27T in FY2021 to $2.53T in FY2022, $5.48T in FY2023, $17.90T in FY2024, and $26.53T in FY2025, representing a 5-year revenue CAGR of 406.8%. Operating margins fluctuated from 4.6% in FY2021 to 11.8% in FY2022, -26.8% in FY2023, 10.4% in FY2024, and 8.9% in FY2025. Annual net income swung from $2.08T in FY2024 to -$1.20T in FY2025, yielding EPS of -$1.58. Over the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $29.23T with a 4.0% profit margin and EPS of $1.90. In the latest quarter, revenue grew 72.2% year-over-year while earnings grew 2550.7%.

YPF income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, YPF held $3.70T in cash and short-term investments against $16.19T in total debt, resulting in net debt of $12.50T. Shareholders' equity was $18.65T, producing a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.87 and a current ratio of 0.93. Operating cash flow reached $7.20T in FY2025, but capital expenditures of $7.37T led to free cash flow of -$171.22B. Cash use in FY2025 also included $14.51B in share buybacks, and share count fell 1.3% over five years.

YPF balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At a share price of $52.10, YPF holds a market capitalization of $20.43B and an enterprise value of $29.51B. Its forward P/E of 5.0x sits below the 12.7x median of its US-listed Energy peers, though its trailing P/E of 27.4x exceeds the peer median of 15.0x. The company trades at an EV/EBITDA of 4.0x compared to the peer median of 8.0x, and a price-to-sales of 0.0x versus 1.8x for peers. Over the past year, YPF gained 97.5% compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500, and its 5-year gain of 1037.6% surpassed the index return of 83.0%.

YPF key metrics →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 6 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, and 3 Hold ratings, with zero Sell or Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target is $61.80, indicating 18.6% upside from the last close of $52.10. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $32.76T and EPS of $6.68, reflecting 431.2% EPS growth. For the next fiscal year, 5 analysts expect revenue of $30.65T and EPS of $5.49. The company beat EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 6, 2026.

YPF forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • The company faces debt refinancing risk with total debt of $16.19T exceeding cash and short-term investments of $3.70T as of June 30, 2026.
  • Analyst projections point to near-term headwinds, with next fiscal year revenue forecast to decline 6.5% and EPS forecast to decline 17.8%.
  • Short interest is elevated, with short percent of float recorded at 7236.3%.
  • Cash generation remains constrained by capital outlays, as capital expenditures of $7.37T exceeded FY2025 operating cash flow of $7.20T.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this YPF AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: YPF income statement, YPF balance sheet, YPF key metrics, YPF analyst forecast, YPF chart. See the YPF stock overview for the latest quote and news.

YPF AI stock analysis FAQ

What does YPF Sociedad Anónima do?

YPF Sociedad Anónima is an integrated oil and gas enterprise operating in Argentina. It explores and produces hydrocarbons across 119 fields, operates three refineries, and runs power generation plants totaling 3,091 megawatts.

What are analysts forecasting for YPF's stock price and earnings?

Analysts set a mean price target of $61.80, which is 18.6% above the last close of $52.10. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus expectations call for EPS of $6.68 and revenue of $32.76T.

How much debt does YPF have?

As of June 30, 2026, YPF reported total debt of $16.19T and cash and short-term investments of $3.70T, resulting in net debt of $12.50T. Its current ratio stood at 0.93 with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.87.

How has YPF stock performed compared to the broader market?

YPF stock returned 97.5% over the trailing one-year period and 1037.6% over five years as of October 16, 2026. Over the same periods, the S&P 500 returned 16.8% and 83.0%, respectively.

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