Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) AI Stock Analysis

Established in 1948 and headquartered in Bogota, Ecopetrol S.A. is an integrated energy company structured into four core segments. The Exploration and Production unit explores and extracts oil and gas domestically and internationally. Transport and Logistics moves crude oil, refined fuels, and biofuels across a network of roughly 9,127 kilometers of pipelines, alongside natural gas and LPG distribution. The Refining, Petrochemical and Biofuels segment produces refined products, polypropylene resins, compounds, and masterbatches. The company also manages Electric Power Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions, designing, constructing, and maintaining energy and road infrastructure while offering IT and telecommunications services.

Ecopetrol recorded a 5-year revenue CAGR of 17.3% from FY2020 to FY2025. After peaking at $159.61T in FY2022, annual revenue dropped to $143.19T in FY2023, $133.33T in FY2024, and $111.48T in FY2025, when revenue fell 16.4%. Operating margin contracted from 37.7% in FY2022 to 22.3% in FY2025, and net income declined from $31.60T to $8.40T over the same span, with EPS falling to $1.11. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, performance rebounded with quarterly revenue growth of 35.5% year-over-year and quarterly earnings growth of 234.5%.

As of June 30, 2026, Ecopetrol held $10.83T in cash and short-term investments against $101.48T in total debt, resulting in net debt of $90.66T. Total assets were $274.79T against shareholders' equity of $82.16T, producing a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.24 and a current ratio of 1.51. In FY2025, operating cash flow was $25.30T and free cash flow reached $16.19T. Capital expenditures absorbed $9.10T, dividends paid totaled $10.91T, and share buybacks equaled $16.76B.

At $17.90 per share, Ecopetrol trades at a trailing P/E of 9.7x and a forward P/E of 5.7x, both beneath the median of its US-listed Energy peers at 15.0x and 12.7x, respectively. Its enterprise value stands at $62.14B with an EV/EBITDA of 4.0x, half of the peer group median of 8.0x, and its price-to-sales multiple is 0.9x versus the peer median of 1.8x. Over the past year, the stock appreciated 109.0%, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%, and its 5-year return of 136.0% compares to 83.0% for SPY.

Ecopetrol distributes an annual forward dividend of $0.65 per share, representing a dividend yield of 3.63% and a payout ratio of 60.1%. Dividends are distributed annually, with payments maintained for 10 consecutive years and an annualized 5-year dividend growth rate of 11.1%. The stock's last ex-dividend date occurred on April 29, 2026.

Wall Street coverage includes 7 Hold ratings, 1 Sell rating, and 3 Strong Sell ratings, with zero Buy ratings. The mean price target is $14.48, representing 19.1% downside from the last close of $17.90. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $2.37 on revenue of $129.30T, followed by projected FY2027 EPS of $1.88 on revenue of $118.49T. Over the last four quarters, the company logged 0 EPS beats. The next earnings date is November 10, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of Ecopetrol S.A. (EC). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

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