Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: XOMAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

XOM AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Exxon Mobil Corporation is a global integrated energy company operating Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments alongside low-carbon initiatives. The company generated $361.06B in trailing twelve-month revenue, with latest quarterly earnings jumping 112.8% year-over-year. Shares have returned 66.5% over the past year, supported by a 57-year dividend payment streak.

Market cap
$735.95B
Revenue (TTM)
$361.06B
P/E
23.0x
fwd 14.8x
1Y return
66.5%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$175.64
-1.9% vs last close

Bull case

  • Quarterly earnings jumped 112.8% and quarterly revenue rose 44.1% year-over-year in the period ended June 30, 2026.
  • FY2025 free cash flow remained substantial at $23.61B, funding $20.27B in share buybacks and $17.23B in dividends.
  • Balance sheet leverage remains conservative with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16 against $259.38B in shareholders' equity.

Bear case

  • Trailing P/E of 23.0x trades at a premium to the median of 17.8x among S&P 500 Energy peers.
  • Analysts project next fiscal year EPS to fall 8.1% to $11.86 as revenue growth flattens to -0.0%.
  • Annual revenue contracted 4.5% in FY2025 to $323.90B, down from $339.25B in FY2024.

What ExxonMobil does

Exxon Mobil Corporation is an integrated energy enterprise engaged in the exploration, production, and refining of crude oil and natural gas globally. Its Upstream segment focuses on extracting oil and gas reserves, while the Downstream segment handles petroleum refining and worldwide distribution of refined products. The Chemical segment manufactures petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics, for consumer and industrial applications. In addition to traditional operations, the company pursues low-carbon initiatives involving carbon capture and storage, hydrogen solutions, and biofuel development.

Growth and profitability

Exxon Mobil delivered a 5-year revenue CAGR of 12.6% from FY2020 to FY2025. After revenue reached $398.68B in FY2022 with a net income of $55.74B, revenue declined 16.0% in FY2023 to $334.70B. In FY2024, revenue grew 1.4% to $339.25B with a 9.9% net margin, before falling 4.5% to $323.90B in FY2025, when net income was $28.84B and EPS was $6.99. TTM revenue stands at $361.06B with an operating margin of 15.9%. For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 44.1% year-over-year, and earnings climbed 112.8%.

XOM income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Exxon Mobil held $10.59B in cash and short-term investments against $42.37B in total debt, leaving net debt at $31.78B. Shareholders' equity was $259.38B, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16 and a current ratio of 1.13. In FY2025, operating cash flow was $51.97B and free cash flow reached $23.61B. Capital allocation during FY2025 included $28.36B in capital expenditures, $20.27B in share buybacks, and $17.23B in dividends paid.

XOM balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Exxon Mobil carries a market capitalization of $735.95B and an enterprise value of $694.74B. Its trailing P/E of 23.0x and forward P/E of 14.8x compare to medians of 17.8x and 13.4x, respectively, for the median of its S&P 500 Energy peers. Its EV/EBITDA of 9.3x sits above the peer median of 7.9x, while its price-to-sales of 2.0x is lower than the peer median of 2.4x. Over the past year, the stock gained 66.5% compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500.

XOM key metrics →

XOM dividend

Exxon Mobil pays an annualized dividend of $4.12 per share, representing a 2.30% dividend yield with a payout ratio of 49.8%. The company has paid dividends for 57 consecutive years and achieved a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 2.8%. Distributions are made quarterly, with the most recent ex-dividend date on August 17, 2026.

XOM dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 6 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, and 16 Hold recommendations, with no Sell ratings. The mean price target of $175.64 represents a 1.9% discount to the last close of $178.98. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $12.91 on revenue of $421.33B. Exxon Mobil has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for October 30, 2026.

XOM forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Operating margin TTM of 15.9% is below the S&P 500 Energy peer median operating margin of 27.1%.
  • Capital expenditures required $28.36B in FY2025, which can reduce free cash flow if operating cash flow declines from $51.97B.
  • The mean analyst price target of $175.64 is 1.9% below the last close of $178.98.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this XOM AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: XOM income statement, XOM balance sheet, XOM key metrics, XOM analyst forecast, XOM chart. See the XOM stock overview for the latest quote and news.

XOM AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Exxon Mobil's dividend yield and payment history?

Exxon Mobil offers a 2.30% forward dividend yield, paying $4.12 per share annually with a payout ratio of 49.8%. The company has paid dividends for 57 consecutive years and has grown its dividend at an annualized rate of 2.8% over the past 5 years.

How did Exxon Mobil perform in its most recent quarter?

In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Exxon Mobil reported a 44.1% year-over-year increase in revenue and a 112.8% increase in earnings.

How does Exxon Mobil's valuation compare to its peers?

Exxon Mobil trades at a trailing P/E of 23.0x and EV/EBITDA of 9.3x, compared to the S&P 500 Energy peer medians of 17.8x and 7.9x. However, its price-to-sales ratio of 2.0x is lower than the peer median of 2.4x.

What is the consensus analyst target for XOM?

The mean price target across analysts is $175.64, which is 1.9% below the October 16, 2026 closing price of $178.98. The stock has 9 Buy or Strong Buy ratings and 16 Hold ratings.

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