Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: SUAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

SU AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) is a Canadian integrated energy company focused on oil sands production, offshore exploration, refining, and marketing. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $56.57B in revenue with a 15.8% profit margin, supported by an operating margin of 29.9%. Shares have gained 108.6% over the past year, closing at $78.05 as quarterly earnings surged 241.9% year-over-year.

Market cap
$92.16B
Revenue (TTM)
$56.57B
P/E
14.4x
fwd 10.3x
1Y return
108.6%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$70.34
-9.9% vs last close

Bull case

  • Quarterly earnings jumped 241.9% year-over-year for the period ending June 30, 2026, accompanied by 45.9% revenue growth.
  • The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3x and an EV-to-EBITDA of 6.0x, both discounted relative to US-listed Energy peer medians of 12.7x and 8.0x.
  • Shareholder returns are underpinned by 35 consecutive years of dividend payments and an 18.9% decrease in shares outstanding over the past five years.

Bear case

  • The consensus analyst price target of $70.34 represents a 9.9% discount to the stock's last close of $78.05.
  • Consensus estimates for next fiscal year forecast revenue to decline 8.5% to $60.31B and earnings per share to drop 17.6% to $9.56.
  • Historical top-line results have fluctuated, including annual revenue contractions of 15.8% in FY2023 and 3.5% in FY2025.

What Suncor Energy does

Suncor Energy Inc. operates as an integrated energy company primarily focused on developing petroleum resource basins in Canada's Athabasca oil sands. Its operations span exploration, acquisition, development, production, transportation, refining, and marketing. The business is organized into four segments: Oil Sands, Exploration and Production, Refining and Marketing, and Corporate and Eliminations. Oil Sands recovers bitumen via mining and in situ operations for upgrading or direct sales. Exploration and Production oversees offshore assets off Canada's east coast and in the North Sea, alongside onshore sites in Libya and Syria. Under the Petro-Canada brand, Suncor distributes refined products to retail and commercial clients, and it operates four wind farms.

Growth and profitability

Suncor achieved a 5-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 14.7% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual revenue peaked at $58.34B in FY2022 with net income of $9.08B, before moderating to $49.09B in FY2023 and $50.69B in FY2024. In FY2025, revenue fell 3.5% to $48.91B, producing $5.92B in net income, an operating margin of 31.7%, and free cash flow of $6.92B. Momentum accelerated in the latest quarter ending June 30, 2026, as quarterly revenue grew 45.9% year-over-year and quarterly earnings expanded 241.9%. Trailing twelve-month revenue reached $56.57B, delivering diluted earnings per share of $5.42 and a return on equity of 19.2%.

SU income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Suncor held $5.37B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $14.68B, resulting in net debt of $9.31B. Total assets stood at $94.75B and shareholders' equity was $48.16B. The company maintained a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30 and a current ratio of 1.65. During FY2025, operating cash flow reached $12.77B, funding $5.85B in capital expenditures, $3.13B in share buybacks, and $2.81B in dividends paid, contributing to a 5-year share count reduction of 18.9%.

SU balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At a market capitalization of $92.16B and an enterprise value of $85.07B, Suncor trades at a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 14.4x and a forward multiple of 10.3x. Both metrics stand below the median of its US-listed Energy peers, which trade at 15.0x trailing and 12.7x forward earnings. The company's enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio of 6.0x is also lower than the peer group median of 8.0x, alongside a price-to-sales ratio of 1.6x versus 1.8x for peers. Over the past year, Suncor stock returned 108.6%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 benchmark ETF return of 16.8%.

SU dividend

Suncor pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward rate of $1.70 per share, representing a 2.17% dividend yield. The company has paid dividends for 35 consecutive years, delivering a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 14.8%. Capital distributions remain supported by a low payout ratio of 25.3%, and its most recent ex-dividend date occurred on September 4, 2026.

SU dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage on Suncor consists of 8 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, and 5 Hold ratings, with zero Sell or Strong Sell recommendations. The consensus mean price target of $70.34 stands 9.9% below the last closing price of $78.05. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts expect revenue of $65.87B and earnings per share of $11.60, representing projected annual EPS growth of 151.7%. Suncor beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings release is scheduled for November 3, 2026.

SU forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Forward estimates project earnings per share to drop 17.6% in the following fiscal year after reaching $11.60 in FY2026.
  • Suncor holds $14.68B in total debt and $9.31B in net debt as of June 30, 2026.
  • The stock trades 27.4% above its 200-day moving average and near its 52-week high of $79.65, leaving it vulnerable to price pullbacks.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this SU AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Suncor Energy Inc. (SU). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: SU income statement, SU balance sheet, SU analyst forecast, SU chart. See the SU stock overview for the latest quote and news.

SU AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Suncor Energy's dividend yield and payout history?

Suncor offers an annualized forward dividend of $1.70 per share, which equates to a 2.17% yield. The company has maintained dividend payments for 35 consecutive years with a payout ratio of 25.3%.

How did Suncor perform in its most recent quarter?

In the quarter ending June 30, 2026, Suncor delivered quarterly revenue growth of 45.9% and quarterly earnings growth of 241.9% year-over-year.

What are analysts forecasting for Suncor's earnings?

Analysts expect FY2026 earnings per share of $11.60 on revenue of $65.87B, followed by next fiscal year projections of $9.56 per share on revenue of $60.31B.

When does Suncor report earnings next?

Suncor is scheduled to release its next quarterly earnings report on November 3, 2026.

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