Shell plc (SHEL) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: SHELAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

SHEL AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Shell plc (SHEL) is an integrated global energy and petrochemical company with a market capitalization of $303.39B. For the trailing twelve months, the company generated $296.60B in revenue with a net profit margin of 8.8%. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue increased 44.7% year-over-year while quarterly earnings surged 220.0%.

Market cap
$303.39B
Revenue (TTM)
$296.60B
P/E
11.8x
fwd 9.6x
1Y return
55.0%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$104.63
-1.9% vs last close

Bull case

  • The company demonstrated strong recent earnings momentum, with quarterly earnings expanding 220.0% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • Shell trades at a forward P/E of 9.6x, which is lower than the median of its US-listed Energy peers of 12.7x.
  • Share repurchases and cash returns have reduced the total share count by 27.2% over five years while supporting a dividend yield of 2.93%.

Bear case

  • Annual revenue fell consecutively from $381.31B in FY2022 to $266.89B in FY2025, including a 6.1% drop in FY2025.
  • For next fiscal year, 12 analysts project revenue to decline 9.5% to $320.18B and EPS to decrease 14.3% to $10.74.
  • The mean price target of $104.63 reflects a 1.9% downside relative to the last close of $106.66.

What Shell does

Shell plc operates globally across Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, and Renewables and Energy Solutions segments. The company engages in the exploration, extraction, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, backed by upstream and midstream transport infrastructure. It also markets, trades, and transports oil and gas, alongside producing gas-to-liquids fuels and marketing liquefied natural gas for heavy vehicles and vessels. In addition, Shell refines crude oil into fuels, lubricants, and bitumen, manufactures base and intermediate petrochemicals, and invests in wind, solar, hydrogen, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure.

Growth and profitability

Shell experienced revenue expansion from $261.50B in FY2021 to a peak of $381.31B in FY2022, before declining to $316.62B in FY2023, $284.31B in FY2024, and $266.89B in FY2025, representing a 5-year revenue CAGR of 8.1%. Operating margin was 8.5% in FY2021, reached 16.6% in FY2022, and settled at 10.3% in FY2025. Annual net income was $17.84B in FY2025 with an EPS of $6.28. Momentum rebounded in the trailing twelve months through June 30, 2026, delivering $296.60B in revenue and an operating margin of 16.7%. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 44.7% year-over-year while quarterly earnings jumped 220.0%.

SHEL income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Shell held $31.37B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $73.08B, resulting in net debt of $41.70B. Liquidity is supported by a current ratio of 1.43, and the debt-to-equity ratio stood at 0.40 on shareholders' equity of $180.79B. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $42.86B and free cash flow was $23.92B. The company allocated $18.95B to capital expenditures, $13.88B to share buybacks, and $8.47B to dividends paid, reducing its share count by 27.2% over five years.

SHEL balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Shell trades at a trailing P/E of 11.8x and a forward P/E of 9.6x, compared to the median of its US-listed Energy peers of 15.0x and 12.7x, respectively. Its enterprise value to EBITDA ratio is 4.6x, below the peer median of 8.0x, while its price-to-sales multiple is 1.0x versus the peer median of 1.8x. Shell shares closed at $106.66 on October 16, 2026, posting a 1-year return of 55.0% and a 5-year return of 165.9%, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) returns of 16.8% and 83.0% over the same periods.

SHEL key metrics →

SHEL dividend

Shell pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward payout of $3.12 per share, representing a dividend yield of 2.93%. The payout ratio is 33.7%, and dividends have been paid for 42 consecutive years. The annualized 5-year dividend growth rate stands at 8.4%, with the last ex-dividend date recorded on August 14, 2026.

SHEL dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage consists of 6 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, and 9 Hold ratings, with 0 Sell or Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target is $104.63, which sits 1.9% below the last close of $106.66. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $353.63B and EPS of $12.53, reflecting 98.9% EPS growth. Shell beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is October 29, 2026.

SHEL forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Shell carries total debt of $73.08B and net debt of $41.70B as of June 30, 2026, which requires consistent cash generation to service.
  • Free cash flow decreased from $35.08B in FY2024 to $23.92B in FY2025, highlighting potential volatility in capital available for investments and distributions.
  • Operating margin for the trailing twelve months of 16.7% remains well below the median of its US-listed Energy peers of 28.5%.
  • The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $106.68 and sits 24.6% above its 200-day moving average, creating vulnerability to market pullbacks.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this SHEL AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Shell plc (SHEL). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: SHEL income statement, SHEL balance sheet, SHEL key metrics, SHEL analyst forecast, SHEL chart. See the SHEL stock overview for the latest quote and news.

SHEL AI stock analysis FAQ

Does Shell plc pay a dividend?

Yes, Shell pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward payout of $3.12 per share, yielding 2.93%. The company has paid dividends for 42 consecutive years with a payout ratio of 33.7%.

What are analysts forecasting for Shell's earnings?

For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $12.53 on revenue of $353.63B. For the following fiscal year, 12 analysts project EPS of $10.74 on revenue of $320.18B.

How does Shell's valuation compare to industry peers?

Shell trades at an EV to EBITDA ratio of 4.6x and a trailing P/E of 11.8x. Both multiples sit below the median of its US-listed Energy peers of 8.0x EV to EBITDA and 15.0x trailing P/E.

When does Shell report its next quarterly earnings?

Shell is scheduled to report its next earnings on October 29, 2026. The company beat EPS expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters.

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