Mesabi Trust (MSB) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: MSBAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

MSB AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Mesabi Trust (MSB) is a royalty trust that collects royalties on iron ore pellet sales from mines in Minnesota's Mesabi Iron Range. The trust generated trailing twelve-month revenue of $11.9M with a profit margin of 54.5%, down from FY2026 revenue of $17.5M. Unit holders receive quarterly distributions yielding 4.98%, though the stock has declined 52.7% year-to-date as of October 16, 2026.

Market cap
$234.6M
Revenue (TTM)
$11.9M
P/E
36.5x
fwd 12.8x
1Y return
-40.0%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$33.00
84.6% vs last close

Bull case

  • The trust provides an annual forward dividend yield of 4.98% and has maintained consecutive dividend payments for 37 years.
  • Wall Street analysts project significant upside, assigning a mean price target of $33.00, which is 84.6% above the last close.
  • Mesabi Trust retains robust liquidity without debt dilution, posting a current ratio of 8.18 as of July 31, 2026.

Bear case

  • Quarterly financial results weakened significantly in the quarter ended July 31, 2026, as quarterly revenue dropped 55.8% and earnings dropped 70.1% year-over-year.
  • The stock has experienced severe price weakness, falling 52.7% year-to-date and 40.0% over the past year compared to a 16.8% gain for the S&P 500.
  • MSB commands an elevated trailing valuation with a price-to-sales ratio of 19.7x compared to the peer median of 1.8x.

What Mesabi does

Mesabi Trust operates as a royalty trust focused on the iron ore mining sector in the United States. Established in 1961 and headquartered in New York, New York, the trust earns income primarily from royalties on sales of iron ore pellets produced from properties in Minnesota. These royalties are paid by Northshore Mining Company and Hibbing Taconite Company from the Peter Mitchell mine and the Hibbing mine in the Mesabi Iron Range. The trust does not conduct direct mining activities; instead, it collects royalties on gross pellet sales and distributes proceeds to unit holders under the oversight of its Board of Trustees.

Growth and profitability

Mesabi Trust has experienced substantial top-line volatility, reflected in a 5-year revenue CAGR of -7.6% from FY2021 to FY2026. Annual revenue moved from $71.5M in FY2022 to $7.7M in FY2023, recovering to $22.9M in FY2024 and $25.5M in FY2025, before declining 31.2% to $17.5M in FY2026. Operating margin stood at 79.1% and net income reached $13.9M in FY2026, down from net income of $93.3M in FY2025. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue was $11.9M with an operating margin of -3.8% and EPS of $0.49. For the latest quarter ended July 31, 2026, quarterly revenue fell 55.8% year-over-year while quarterly earnings declined 70.1%.

MSB income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of July 31, 2026, Mesabi Trust reported cash and short-term investments of $17.4M and total assets of $19.8M, supported by shareholders' equity of $17.6M. The trust maintains strong liquidity with a current ratio of 8.18. In FY2026, free cash flow and operating cash flow each totaled $14.4M. Capital return to unit holders is the primary use of cash, with $91.4M paid in dividends during FY2026, while the 5-year share count change remained at 0.0%.

MSB balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Mesabi Trust trades at a trailing P/E of 36.5x and an enterprise value to EBITDA of 32.9x, both well above the median of its US-listed Basic Materials peers at 19.7x and 10.5x, respectively. Its price-to-sales ratio of 19.7x also exceeds the peer median of 1.8x, though forward P/E of 12.8x sits below the peer median of 13.4x. Over the past year, MSB fell 40.0% and has dropped 52.7% year-to-date, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8% over the past year and 83.0% over five years.

MSB key metrics →

MSB dividend

Mesabi Trust pays a quarterly dividend with an annual forward dividend of $0.89, providing a dividend yield of 4.98%. The trust has paid dividends for 37 consecutive years, achieving an annualized 5-year dividend growth rate of 33.1%. Its payout ratio is 1.8%, and the last ex-dividend date occurred on July 30, 2026.

MSB dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street analysts tracking Mesabi Trust have set a mean price target of $33.00, compared to the stock's last close of $17.88 on October 16, 2026. This target implies an 84.6% premium over the current share price. Individual rating counts and forward quarterly consensus estimates are not disclosed. With earnings volatile and trailing twelve-month EPS at $0.49, investors will look to upcoming operational results from the underlying Minnesota iron ore mines to evaluate future trust distributions.

Key risks and what to watch

  • Operating profitability turned negative over the trailing twelve months with an operating margin of -3.8%.
  • Long-term top-line contraction is evident from the 5-year revenue CAGR of -7.6% between FY2021 and FY2026.
  • The stock trades 34.6% below its 200-day average and near its 52-week low of $17.25, reflecting persistent downward momentum.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this MSB AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Mesabi Trust (MSB). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: MSB income statement, MSB balance sheet, MSB key metrics, MSB chart. See the MSB stock overview for the latest quote and news.

MSB AI stock analysis FAQ

Does Mesabi Trust pay a dividend?

Yes, Mesabi Trust pays a quarterly dividend with an annual forward dividend of $0.89, yielding 4.98%. It has paid distributions for 37 consecutive years, with the last ex-dividend date on July 30, 2026.

What is the mean price target for MSB stock?

Analysts have set a mean price target of $33.00 for Mesabi Trust. This target represents an 84.6% premium relative to the stock's closing price of $17.88 on October 16, 2026.

How has Mesabi Trust performed compared to the broader market?

Mesabi Trust has underperformed the broader market, declining 40.0% over the past year and 17.1% over five years, whereas the S&P 500 returned 16.8% and 83.0% over those respective periods.

What are Mesabi Trust's main sources of royalty income?

Mesabi Trust earns royalties from gross sales of iron ore pellets produced at the Peter Mitchell mine and Hibbing mine in Minnesota, which are operated by Northshore Mining Company and Hibbing Taconite Company.

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