Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) AI Stock Analysis

Algoma Steel Group Inc., founded in 1901 and headquartered in Sault Ste. Marie, Canada, manufactures and supplies steel products primarily for North American markets. Its portfolio includes flat and sheet steel items such as temper rolling, cold rolled, and hot-rolled pickled and oiled products serving the automotive, hollow structural product, light manufacturing, and transportation industries. Algoma also provides plate steel products in rolled, hot-rolled, and heat-treated formats. These products are utilized across construction projects, railcar manufacturing, bridge infrastructure, off-highway equipment, storage tanks, ships, and military applications, supported by its production and distribution base in Sault Ste. Marie.

Algoma's revenue grew 22.3% to $2.09B in FY2026, up from $1.71B in FY2025, but remained well below the $3.81B reached in FY2022. The company's 5-year revenue CAGR from FY2021 to FY2026 was 3.0%. Profitability has deteriorated, with gross margin dropping to -31.9% and operating margin reaching -37.3% in FY2026, resulting in a net loss of -$984.9M and an EPS of -$6.09. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue was $1.54B with an operating margin of -51.4% and net margin of -71.6%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue dropped 54.6% year-over-year, and quarterly earnings contracted by 93.0%.

As of June 30, 2026, Algoma held $62.6M in cash and short-term investments alongside total debt of $1.09B, yielding net debt of $1.03B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.68. Shareholders' equity stood at $295.7M, while the current ratio was 2.49. In FY2026, operating cash flow was -$66.1M, and free cash flow was -$394.6M. Capital expenditures totaled $328.5M for FY2026, while dividends paid were $14.8M. Over the past five years, the company's share count decreased by 13.4%.

Algoma trades at a forward P/E of 9.1x, lower than the 13.4x median of its US-listed Basic Materials peers. Its price-to-sales multiple is 0.3x, compared to the peer median of 1.8x, while its EV/EBITDA of 75.0x sits significantly higher than the peer median of 10.5x. Over the past year, Algoma's share price gained 3.5%, underperforming the S&P 500 return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year span, the stock dropped 62.5% versus an 83.0% gain for the S&P 500. Its enterprise value stands at $1.08B against a market cap of $425.8M.

Wall Street coverage includes 1 Buy rating and 3 Hold ratings, with zero Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $20.00, representing an upside of 396.3% from the last close of $4.03. Consensus estimates project current fiscal year revenue of $1.13B and EPS of -$3.33, followed by expected revenue of $1.78B and EPS of -$0.36 for the next fiscal year. Algoma delivered 0 EPS beats over the last 4 quarters, with the next earnings release scheduled for November 4, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

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