ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) AI Stock Analysis

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and value-added logistics solutions across the People's Republic of China. Its services provide fast delivery options for e-commerce platforms and traditional merchants. Founded in 2002 and headquartered in Shanghai, the company operates an extensive distribution network backed by a fleet of approximately 10,900 trucks. ZTO Express integrates advanced technology and infrastructure to optimize logistics capabilities, streamline processes, and maintain service reliability across China's delivery market.

ZTO Express increased annual revenue from $30.41B in FY2021 to $47.76B in FY2025, recording a 5-year revenue CAGR of 13.6%. Gross margin was 25.0% in FY2025, down from 31.0% in FY2024, while operating margin was 19.6% compared to 26.6% in FY2024. Annual net income reached $8.83B in FY2025, slightly higher than $8.82B in FY2024. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $54.21B with a profit margin of 19.0%. In the latest quarter, quarterly revenue grew 23.0% year-over-year, and quarterly earnings grew 58.1%.

As of June 30, 2026, ZTO held $31.36B in cash and short-term investments alongside $22.05B in total debt, resulting in net cash of $9.32B. The company maintained a current ratio of 1.67 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35 on $63.67B of shareholders' equity. In FY2025, operating cash flow was $11.97B and free cash flow reached $5.89B. Capital expenditures were $6.07B, while capital returns included $1.25B in share buybacks and $3.76B in dividends paid.

ZTO trades at a trailing P/E of 11.0x and a forward P/E of 9.4x, lower than the median of its US-listed Industrials peers of 24.8x and 17.2x, respectively. Its enterprise value of $13.44B corresponds to an EV/EBITDA of 7.4x, compared to the peer group median of 13.9x. The price-to-sales multiple is 0.3x versus the peer median of 1.5x. Over the past year, ZTO stock gained 8.0%, trailing the 16.8% return for the S&P 500, and over five years the stock fell 27.2% against an 83.0% gain for the index.

ZTO pays a semiannual dividend with an annualized forward dividend of $0.69 per share, providing a 3.42% dividend yield. The company has paid dividends for 9 consecutive years and delivered a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 16.7%. The dividend payout ratio stands at 4.0%, and the last ex-dividend date was April 8, 2026.

Wall Street coverage includes 9 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, and 4 Hold ratings, with no Sell or Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target of $27.50 sits 36.3% above the last close of $20.17. Analysts estimate current fiscal year revenue of $57.79B and EPS of $13.54, implying 17.5% EPS growth. ZTO has beat EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings release is scheduled for November 18, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

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