Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: SWAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

SW AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Smurfit WestRock plc (NYSE: SW) is a global leader in paper-based packaging formed in July 2024 through the combination of Smurfit Kappa Group and WestRock Company. Following the merger, trailing twelve-month revenue reached $31.33B, though trailing net profit margin was modest at 1.6%. The company carries net debt of $13.49B while supporting a 4.40% dividend yield.

Market cap
$21.59B
Revenue (TTM)
$31.33B
P/E
43.3x
fwd 13.8x
1Y return
3.8%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$56.47
37.2% vs last close

Bull case

  • Forward P/E of 13.8x and EV/EBITDA of 8.8x both trade at discounts to the S&P 500 Consumer Cyclical peer medians of 15.7x and 13.8x.
  • Free cash flow rebounded to $1.20B in FY2025, supported by $3.39B in operating cash flow.
  • Consensus estimates from 14 analysts project FY2027 EPS to reach $3.53, representing 71.7% growth.

Bear case

  • Trailing net margin remains compressed at 1.6%, while quarterly earnings fell 83.6% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • The balance sheet carries $13.49B in net debt with only $677.0M in cash and short-term investments.
  • The company missed EPS expectations in all of its last 4 reported quarters, generating 0 beats.

What Smurfit WestRock does

Smurfit WestRock plc is one of the world's largest providers of paper-based packaging, formed in July 2024 through the combination of Smurfit Kappa Group and WestRock Company. Operating across Europe and the Americas, the company manufactures containerboard, corrugated boxes, paperboard, consumer packaging, paper bags, and other packaging products. It runs paper mills, converting plants, and recycling facilities serving customers across food and beverage, consumer goods, e-commerce, and industrial markets. Headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, its shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SW and also maintain a listing on the London Stock Exchange.

Growth and profitability

Top-line revenue expanded significantly following the combination, surging 86.0% in FY2024 to $20.38B and rising 53.0% in FY2025 to $31.18B, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 29.6%. However, profitability contracted from pre-merger levels; operating margin was 7.1% and net margin was 2.2% in FY2025, down from 11.3% and 6.8% in FY2023. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue was $31.33B with an operating margin of 5.5% and diluted EPS of $0.95. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 1.1% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings declined 83.6%.

SW income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Smurfit WestRock held $677.0M in cash and short-term investments against $14.16B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $13.49B and total assets of $45.20B. Shareholders' equity stood at $18.04B, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.79 and a current ratio of 1.45. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $3.39B and free cash flow was $1.20B. Cash uses included $2.19B in capital expenditures and $900.0M in dividends paid, while share count increased 100.1% over five years following the combination.

SW balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At $41.16, Smurfit WestRock trades at a trailing P/E of 43.3x, above the 19.7x median of its S&P 500 Consumer Cyclical peers. Its forward P/E of 13.8x and EV/EBITDA of 8.8x both sit below the sector peer medians of 15.7x and 13.8x, respectively. The stock also trades at a price-to-sales multiple of 0.7x compared to the peer median of 2.0x. Over the past year, the stock returned 3.8%, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%, and its 5-year return of -9.5% lags the S&P 500 gain of 83.0%.

SW key metrics →

SW dividend

Smurfit WestRock pays a quarterly dividend with a forward annual payout of $1.81, representing a 4.40% dividend yield as of October 16, 2026. The dividend payout ratio stands at 116.0%, and dividends have been paid for 13 consecutive years. Over the past five years, the dividend has seen an annualized growth rate of -4.5%, with the most recent ex-dividend date on August 14, 2026.

SW dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 12 Strong Buy ratings, 5 Buy ratings, and zero Hold or Sell ratings. The mean price target is $56.47, representing 37.2% upside compared to the last close of $41.16. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $1.72 on revenue of $32.14B, followed by FY2027 estimates of $3.53 in EPS and $34.36B in revenue from 14 analysts. The company beat EPS estimates in 0 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 4, 2026.

SW forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • The dividend payout ratio of 116.0% exceeds trailing net income, while 5-year annualized dividend growth was -4.5%.
  • Operating margin of 5.5% over the trailing twelve months lags the S&P 500 Consumer Cyclical median of 13.6%.
  • Carrying $14.16B in total debt requires steady free cash flow after $2.19B in FY2025 capital expenditures.
  • Shares trade 3.9% below their 200-day moving average and have posted a 5-year return of -9.5%.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this SW AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Smurfit WestRock plc (SW). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: SW income statement, SW balance sheet, SW key metrics, SW analyst forecast, SW chart. See the SW stock overview for the latest quote and news.

SW AI stock analysis FAQ

When was Smurfit WestRock formed?

Smurfit WestRock plc was created in July 2024 through the combination of Smurfit Kappa Group and WestRock Company, with an initial public listing year of 2024 on the NYSE.

What is Smurfit WestRock's dividend yield and payout?

As of October 16, 2026, Smurfit WestRock offers an annual forward dividend of $1.81 per share, which equates to a 4.40% dividend yield and a payout ratio of 116.0%.

How much debt does Smurfit WestRock have?

As of June 30, 2026, the company held $14.16B in total debt and $677.0M in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $13.49B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.79.

When does Smurfit WestRock report earnings next?

The company's next earnings date is scheduled for November 4, 2026.

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