Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) AI Stock Analysis

Graphic Packaging Holding Company provides fiber-based packaging solutions tailored for the food, beverage, foodservice, and consumer products industries. Operating across three segments—Paperboard Mills, Americas Paperboard Packaging, and Europe Paperboard Packaging—the company supplies coated unbleached kraft, coated recycled paperboard, and solid bleached sulfate paperboard. These materials are converted into folding cartons, cups, lids, food containers, and barrier packaging designed to protect against moisture, temperature, grease, and oxygen. Graphic Packaging also designs, installs, and services specialized packaging machinery for bottles, cans, and non-beverage consumer products at customer facilities globally.

Graphic Packaging grew revenue at a 5-year CAGR of 5.6% from FY2020 to FY2025, reaching $9.44B in FY2022 before retreating to $8.81B in FY2024 and $8.62B in FY2025. Operating margin compressed from 14.1% in FY2023 to 13.1% in FY2024 and 10.1% in FY2025. Annual net income declined from $723.0M in FY2023 to $444.0M in FY2025, lowering EPS from $2.92 to $1.80. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $8.64B with a profit margin of 2.2% and EPS of $0.66. In the latest quarter, revenue fell 0.7% year-over-year while quarterly earnings fell 76.5%.

As of June 30, 2026, Graphic Packaging held $205.0M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $5.81B, leaving net debt at $5.61B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.80. Shareholders' equity was $3.24B within total assets of $11.66B, with a current ratio of 1.38. In FY2025, operating cash flow of $841.0M was exceeded by capital expenditures of $922.0M, generating free cash flow of -$81.0M. The company also spent $184.0M on share buybacks and $128.0M on dividends.

At $8.57 per share, Graphic Packaging trades at a trailing P/E of 13.0x and a forward P/E of 8.3x, both below the median of its US-listed Consumer Cyclical peers at 18.0x and 14.1x. Its enterprise value to EBITDA ratio is 7.8x versus the peer median of 11.1x, and its price-to-sales ratio is 0.3x compared to the peer median of 0.7x. Over the past year, the stock fell 48.1%, while the S&P 500 gained 16.8%. Over five years, the stock dropped 51.9% compared to an 83.0% gain for the benchmark.

Graphic Packaging pays a quarterly dividend totaling an annualized $0.44 per share, resulting in a 5.13% dividend yield. The payout ratio stands at 40.0%, and dividends have been paid for 12 consecutive years. The company delivered an annualized dividend growth rate of 8.0% over the past 5 years, with its most recent ex-dividend date on September 15, 2026.

Graphic Packaging carries 1 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 8 Holds, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell rating. The mean price target of $10.95 sits 27.8% above the last close of $8.57. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $0.68 on revenue of $8.62B. For the following year, 10 analysts expect EPS to rise 47.2% to $1.00 on revenue of $8.79B. The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for November 3, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

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