Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: PFSAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

PFS AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Provident Financial Services, Inc. is a bank holding company operating Provident Bank across commercial and retail banking markets. For FY2025, the company delivered revenue of $1.38B and net income of $291.2M, alongside a trailing twelve-month operating margin of 52.3%. It offers a 4.32% dividend yield supported by a 40.0% payout ratio.

Market cap
$2.90B
Revenue (TTM)
$894.3M
P/E
9.3x
fwd 9.0x
1Y return
29.9%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$27.75
24.8% vs last close

Bull case

  • Revenue expanded at a 26.0% 5-year CAGR through FY2025, with free cash flow rising to $430.7M.
  • Trailing P/E of 9.3x and forward P/E of 9.0x stand below the US-listed Financial Services median of 12.1x and 10.8x.
  • Analysts maintain a mean price target of $27.75, implying 24.8% potential upside from the $22.23 closing price.

Bear case

  • Share count expanded by 71.1% over a 5-year span, leading to substantial equity dilution.
  • Quarterly revenue growth of 3.8% in the latest quarter lagged the peer group median of 10.1%.
  • Net debt reached $1.28B with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.65 as of June 30, 2026.

What Provident Financial Services does

Provident Financial Services, Inc. serves as a bank holding company overseeing Provident Bank, providing financial services to individuals, families, and businesses. Its deposit lineup covers checking, savings, money market, certificate of deposit, and IRA accounts. Lending activities focus on commercial real estate across multi-family apartments, offices, retail, and industrial facilities, as well as commercial business loans, residential mortgages, construction financing, and consumer credit like HELOCs and auto loans. The company also supplies cash management, payroll origination, escrow services, digital banking, and business credit cards. Furthermore, it operates wealth management, insurance sales, trust administration, private banking, and a real estate investment trust.

Growth and profitability

Provident's revenue expanded from $489.1M in FY2021 to $1.38B in FY2025, achieving a 5-year revenue CAGR of 26.0%. Annual net income rose to $291.2M in FY2025 from $115.5M in FY2024, with net margin improving from 10.1% to 21.1%. In the latest trailing twelve months, revenue reached $894.3M with an operating margin of 52.3% and EPS of $2.40. For the quarter ending June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 3.8% year-over-year while quarterly earnings expanded 9.0%.

PFS income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Provident Financial Services held $3.51B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $4.79B, resulting in net debt of $1.28B. Total assets stood at $25.66B with shareholders' equity of $2.91B, reflecting a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.65. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $442.3M, supporting $11.5M in capital expenditures and free cash flow of $430.7M. The company distributed $125.9M in dividends during FY2025, while its share count grew 71.1% over five years.

PFS balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

PFS trades at a trailing P/E of 9.3x and a forward P/E of 9.0x, both below the US-listed Financial Services median of 12.1x and 10.8x, respectively. Its price-to-sales ratio is 3.2x, matching the peer group median of 3.2x, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.0x and an enterprise value of $5.55B. Over the past year, the stock returned 29.9%, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%, though its 5-year return of 15.1% trailed the S&P 500's 83.0%.

PFS key metrics →

PFS dividend

Provident Financial Services pays an annualized forward dividend of $0.96 per share, corresponding to a 4.32% dividend yield. Dividends are paid quarterly, backed by a 40.0% payout ratio. The company has maintained consecutive annual dividend payments for 24 years, with a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 0.9%. Its most recent ex-dividend date was August 14, 2026.

PFS dividend history →

What analysts expect

Consensus coverage includes 2 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, and 2 Hold recommendations, with zero Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $27.75, representing a 24.8% upside relative to the last close of $22.23. Provident beat EPS consensus estimates in each of the last 4 quarters. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $2.46 on revenue of $938.5M. The next earnings date is October 28, 2026.

PFS forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Total debt of $4.79B exceeds cash and short-term investments of $3.51B as of June 30, 2026.
  • Operating margins dropped from 46.4% in FY2021 to 29.5% in FY2025 before rebounding to 52.3% on a trailing twelve-month basis.
  • Trailing twelve-month revenue of $894.3M reflects a decrease compared to FY2025 revenue of $1.38B.
  • Short interest accounts for 6.4% of the float as of October 16, 2026.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this PFS AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: PFS income statement, PFS balance sheet, PFS key metrics, PFS analyst forecast, PFS chart. See the PFS stock overview for the latest quote and news.

PFS AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Provident Financial Services' current dividend yield?

Provident Financial Services offers a dividend yield of 4.32% based on an annual forward dividend of $0.96 per share. It has paid dividends for 24 consecutive years with a 40.0% payout ratio.

How did Provident Financial Services perform relative to the broader market?

Over the past 1 year, the stock returned 29.9% compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500. Over a 5-year timeframe, its 15.1% return trailed the index's 83.0% gain.

What are analysts forecasting for PFS earnings?

Analysts project full-year EPS of $2.46 on revenue of $938.5M for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. For the following fiscal year, 6 analysts forecast EPS of $2.58 and revenue of $996.0M.

When is Provident Financial Services' next earnings announcement?

The company's next earnings report is scheduled for October 28, 2026. Provident has beaten EPS estimates in each of the trailing 4 quarters.

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