Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: MFGAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

MFG AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: MFG) is a major Tokyo-based financial services conglomerate offering banking, trust, securities, and asset management services globally. In FY2026, the company generated $9.49T in revenue and $1.32T in net income, representing net margin expansion to 14.0%. Over the trailing twelve months, quarterly revenue growth reached 35.0% and quarterly earnings growth reached 49.7%.

Market cap
$122.78B
Revenue (TTM)
$4.74T
P/E
13.9x
fwd 14.6x
1Y return
64.9%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$10.99
8.0% vs last close

Bull case

  • Mizuho expanded net income from $530.48B in FY2022 to $1.32T in FY2026, achieving a trailing twelve-month profit margin of 29.1%.
  • The company maintained a 20-year unbroken dividend record with a conservative payout ratio of 22.8% and a five-year annualized growth rate of 7.0%.
  • For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Mizuho delivered quarterly revenue growth of 35.0% and quarterly earnings growth of 49.7%.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow has demonstrated severe volatility, dropping to -$3.82T in FY2025 before rebounding to $590.24B in FY2026.
  • Mizuho's forward P/E of 14.6x sits above the median of 10.8x for US-listed Financial Services peers.
  • The balance sheet carries net debt of $15.03T and an elevated debt-to-equity ratio of 5.91.

What Mizuho Financial does

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. is a financial services conglomerate based in Tokyo, Japan, operating across Japan, the Americas, Europe, and Asia/Oceania. Incorporated in 2003, it delivers banking, trust, securities, and related services through five distinct segments: Retail & Business Banking Company, Corporate & Institutional Company, Global Corporate Company, Global Markets Company, and Asset Management Company. Its offerings span deposit products, syndicated loans, housing loans, card loans, asset management, and succession planning. It also provides payroll services, overseas expansion and M&A advisory, business matching, and sales of prefecture-issued lottery tickets.

Growth and profitability

Between FY2021 and FY2026, Mizuho generated a five-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 26.9%. Revenue increased from $2.84T in FY2022 to $4.89T in FY2023, $7.86T in FY2024, $8.60T in FY2025, and reached $9.49T in FY2026. Net income rose from $530.48B in FY2022 to $1.32T in FY2026, with net margin improving to 14.0% and EPS reaching $0.66. Operating margin stood at 18.1% in FY2026, while gross margin was 48.9%. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue was $4.74T with an operating margin of 46.7%, profit margin of 29.1%, quarterly revenue growth of 35.0%, and quarterly earnings growth of 49.7%.

MFG income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Mizuho reported total assets of $302.27T and shareholders' equity of $11.44T. Liquidity included cash and short-term investments of $52.55T against total debt of $67.58T, resulting in net debt of $15.03T. The firm had a current ratio of 1.15 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.91. Operating cash flow in FY2026 was $590.24B, with free cash flow of $487.72B. Capital deployment in FY2026 included capital expenditures of $102.52B, share buybacks of $428.71B, and dividends paid of $390.94B, supporting a five-year share count decline of 3.9%.

MFG balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At $10.17 on October 16, 2026, Mizuho trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 13.9x and a forward P/E of 14.6x, compared to medians of 12.1x and 10.8x for US-listed Financial Services peers. Its price-to-book ratio is 1.8x, and its enterprise value-to-revenue ratio is 3.9x. The stock has delivered a 1-year return of 64.9% versus 16.8% for the S&P 500 benchmark (SPY), and a 5-year return of 344.7% versus 83.0% for SPY.

MFG key metrics →

MFG dividend

Mizuho provides a forward annual dividend of $0.18, representing a dividend yield of 1.81% and a payout ratio of 22.8%. The company has maintained 20 consecutive years of dividend payments, with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 7.0%. The most recent ex-dividend date occurred on September 30, 2026.

MFG dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage tracked shows 1 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 0 Hold, 1 Sell, and 0 Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $10.99, representing an 8.0% premium over the last close of $10.17. Analysts project current fiscal year EPS of $0.78 on revenue of $4.23T, followed by FY2028 EPS of $0.97 on revenue of $4.76T. The company beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with the next earnings announcement scheduled for November 13, 2026.

MFG forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Total debt stands at $67.58T against shareholders' equity of $11.44T, reflecting substantial balance sheet leverage.
  • Free cash flow fluctuates sharply, moving from -$4.17T in FY2025 to $487.72B in FY2026.
  • Analyst sentiment is split, with 1 Strong Buy and 1 Sell recommendation among tracked analysts.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this MFG AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: MFG income statement, MFG balance sheet, MFG key metrics, MFG analyst forecast, MFG chart. See the MFG stock overview for the latest quote and news.

MFG AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Mizuho Financial Group's dividend yield and payout policy?

Mizuho pays a forward dividend of $0.18 per share, which corresponds to a yield of 1.81% and a payout ratio of 22.8%. It has paid dividends for 20 consecutive years and achieved a 7.0% five-year annualized dividend growth rate.

How did Mizuho perform in its latest reported fiscal year?

In FY2026, Mizuho generated revenue of $9.49T, an increase of 10.4% year-over-year, and net income of $1.32T, up from $885.43B in FY2025. Operating margin reached 18.1% and diluted EPS came in at $0.66.

How does Mizuho's valuation compare to its peer group?

Mizuho trades at a trailing P/E of 13.9x and a forward P/E of 14.6x, above the US-listed Financial Services peer group medians of 12.1x and 10.8x, respectively. Its price-to-book ratio is 1.8x.

When is Mizuho's next earnings report?

Mizuho's next earnings release is scheduled for November 13, 2026. The company beat EPS estimates in each of the preceding 4 quarters.

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