National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) AI Stock Analysis
NFG AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchNational Fuel Gas Company (NFG) is an integrated, diversified energy enterprise operating across exploration, pipeline, gathering, and utility segments. In FY2025, revenue grew 17.1% to $2.28B with net income rebounding to $518.5M. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 11.1x and yields 2.78% with an annual forward dividend of $2.22.
- Market cap
- $7.60B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $2.51B
- P/E
- 11.1x fwd 9.8x
- 1Y return
- -3.7% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $93.00 16.4% vs last close
Bull case
- In FY2025, revenue grew 17.1% to $2.28B while net income recovered to $518.5M.
- The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.8x and EV to EBITDA of 6.4x, below the US-listed Energy peer medians of 12.7x and 8.0x.
- NFG has delivered 40 consecutive years of dividend payments, supported by an annual forward dividend of $2.22 and a payout ratio of 28.9%.
Bear case
- For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly earnings fell 11.6% year-over-year while revenue increased just 1.1%.
- NFG returned -3.7% over the past 1-year period, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%.
- The company carries total debt of $3.57B and net debt of $2.33B as of June 30, 2026.
What National Fuel Gas does
National Fuel Gas Company functions as a diversified energy enterprise operating across four distinct segments: Exploration and Production, Pipeline and Storage, Gathering, and Utility. The Exploration and Production segment explores, develops, and extracts natural gas and oil in California and the Appalachian region. Pipeline and Storage manages an integrated interstate natural gas pipeline network and underground storage fields across Pennsylvania and New York. The Gathering segment builds, owns, and operates processing facilities and pipeline gathering systems in Appalachia. The Utility segment handles retail natural gas distribution, serving approximately 754,000 customers in select areas of New York and Pennsylvania.
Growth and profitability
From FY2020 to FY2025, NFG generated a 5-year revenue CAGR of 8.1%. Revenue grew 12.7% in FY2021 to $1.74B and 25.4% in FY2022 to $2.19B, before falling 0.6% in FY2023 to $2.17B and 10.5% in FY2024 to $1.94B. Growth resumed in FY2025 as revenue rose 17.1% to $2.28B, gross margin reached 66.1%, and net income totaled $518.5M, yielding diluted EPS of $6.91. For the trailing twelve months through June 30, 2026, revenue was $2.51B with a net profit margin of 26.9%. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue rose 1.1% year-over-year while earnings declined 11.6%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, National Fuel Gas Company held $1.24B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $3.57B, resulting in net debt of $2.33B. Total assets stood at $10.45B and shareholders' equity was $3.92B, supporting a current ratio of 3.20 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.91. In FY2025, operating cash flow was $1.10B and free cash flow was $187.2M. Capital deployment in FY2025 included capital expenditures of $912.8M, dividends paid of $188.4M, and share buybacks of $59.1M.
Valuation and performance
NFG shares closed at $79.92 on October 16, 2026, representing a market capitalization of $7.60B and an enterprise value of $9.80B. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 11.1x and a forward P/E of 9.8x, both below the median of its US-listed Energy peers of 15.0x and 12.7x, respectively. Its EV to EBITDA multiple is 6.4x versus the peer median of 8.0x, though its price-to-sales ratio of 3.0x exceeds the peer median of 1.8x. Over the past year, NFG returned -3.7%, lagging the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%.
NFG dividend
National Fuel Gas Company pays a quarterly dividend with an annual forward payout of $2.22 per share, equating to a 2.78% dividend yield and a payout ratio of 28.9%. NFG has paid dividends for 40 consecutive years, delivering a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 3.7%. Its most recent ex-dividend date was September 30, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage on NFG includes 2 Strong Buy and 2 Hold ratings, with 0 Buy, Sell, or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $93.00, which sits 16.4% above the last close of $79.92. For the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $7.25 on revenue of $2.55B. For the following fiscal year, 5 analysts project revenue to expand 18.7% to $3.03B with EPS of $7.43. NFG beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with its next earnings release scheduled for November 4, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Revenue has experienced historical volatility, including a 10.5% contraction in FY2024 to $1.94B.
- Capital expenditures of $912.8M in FY2025 significantly reduced free cash flow to $187.2M relative to operating cash flow of $1.10B.
- Total debt of $3.57B with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.91 requires ongoing cash flow generation to manage leverage.
- Short interest stands at 6.2% of float, indicating elevated bearish sentiment.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this NFG AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of National Fuel Gas Company (NFG). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: NFG income statement, NFG balance sheet, NFG key metrics, NFG analyst forecast, NFG chart. See the NFG stock overview for the latest quote and news.
NFG AI stock analysis FAQ
What is National Fuel Gas Company's dividend yield?
NFG pays an annual forward dividend of $2.22 per share, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 2.78% based on its last close of $79.92.
How does NFG's valuation compare to its energy sector peers?
NFG trades at a trailing P/E of 11.1x and forward P/E of 9.8x, both below the median of its US-listed Energy peers of 15.0x and 12.7x.
How much debt does NFG have on its balance sheet?
As of June 30, 2026, NFG held total debt of $3.57B and cash and short-term investments of $1.24B, resulting in net debt of $2.33B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.91.
When is NFG's next earnings report?
National Fuel Gas Company is scheduled to report its next earnings on November 4, 2026.