MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: MSMAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

MSM AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. distributes metalworking and maintenance, repair, and operations products across North America and the United Kingdom. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $3.91B in revenue with a net profit margin of 5.9%. While annual sales contracted by 1.3% in FY2025, recent quarterly performance rebounded with earnings growing 41.1% year-over-year.

Market cap
$7.28B
Revenue (TTM)
$3.91B
P/E
31.5x
fwd 23.5x
1Y return
58.4%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$134.25
3.0% vs last close

Bull case

  • Quarterly earnings rebounded strongly, rising 41.1% year-over-year in the quarter ended May 31, 2026.
  • Free cash flow generation remained solid at $240.9M in FY2025, providing support for ongoing capital expenditures of $92.8M.
  • Analyst forecasts project EPS growth of 22.7% to $4.61 in FY2026 and a further 19.8% to $5.53 in the following fiscal year.

Bear case

  • MSC trades at a premium forward P/E of 23.5x compared to the US-listed Industrials median of 17.2x.
  • The dividend payout ratio stands at 108.0%, while the 5-year annualized dividend growth rate fell 21.5%.
  • Net income retreated from $343.2M in FY2023 to $199.3M in FY2025 as operating margins slipped to 8.3%.

What MSC Industrial Direct does

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc., founded in 1941 and based in Melville, New York, distributes metalworking and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products and services. Serving clients ranging from local machine shops to Fortune 1000 manufacturers and government agencies, the company maintains an inventory of roughly 2.1 million stock-keeping units. Offerings include cutting tools, measuring instruments, fasteners, safety gear, plumbing, and electrical supplies. MSC reaches customers through catalogs, digital channels such as mscdirect.com, and inventory management programs. Operations are supported by 6 customer fulfillment centers, 10 regional inventory centers, and 38 warehouses across the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom.

Growth and profitability

Between FY2021 and FY2025, MSC grew revenue at a 5-year CAGR of 3.4%, peaking at $4.01B in FY2023. Revenue subsequently fell 4.7% in FY2024 to $3.82B and fell 1.3% in FY2025 to $3.77B. Operating margin narrowed from 12.9% in FY2022 to 8.3% in FY2025, while net margin declined to 5.3% as net income settled at $199.3M. However, trailing twelve month revenue reached $3.91B with operating margin at 10.2%. For the latest quarter ended May 31, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 7.8% year-over-year and quarterly earnings rose 41.1%, supported by diluted EPS of $4.14 over the trailing twelve months.

MSM income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of May 31, 2026, MSC held $74.1M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $555.4M, resulting in net debt of $481.3M. The company maintains a current ratio of 1.55 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39 on shareholders' equity of $1.42B. In FY2025, the company generated $333.7M in operating cash flow and $240.9M in free cash flow. Capital allocation in FY2025 included $92.8M in capital expenditures, $39.3M in share buybacks, and $189.7M paid in dividends.

MSM balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At $130.38 per share, MSC trades at a trailing P/E of 31.5x and a forward P/E of 23.5x, compared to medians of 24.8x and 17.2x, respectively, for US-listed Industrials peers. Its enterprise value of $7.26B reflects an EV to EBITDA multiple of 17.0x, above the peer group median of 13.9x, while its price-to-sales ratio stands at 1.9x versus the 1.5x median. Over the past year, MSM returned 58.4%, outpacing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%. Over five years, the stock gained 86.6% compared to 83.0% for the S&P 500.

MSM key metrics →

MSM dividend

MSC pays a quarterly dividend totaling an annualized $3.56 per share, representing a dividend yield of 2.73%. The company has paid dividends for 24 consecutive years, though its 5-year annualized dividend growth rate stands at -21.5%. Its payout ratio is 108.0%, and its last ex-dividend date is listed as November 10, 2026.

MSM dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 3 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 6 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target of $134.25 suggests a 3.0% upside relative to the last close of $130.38. For the fiscal year ending August 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $4.61 on revenue of $3.99B. For the subsequent fiscal year, 11 analysts expect EPS to reach $5.53 on revenue of $4.27B. MSC exceeded EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for October 22, 2026.

MSM forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • The high dividend payout ratio of 108.0% could pressure shareholder distributions if earnings do not expand as projected.
  • Total debt of $555.4M exceeds cash reserves of $74.1M, leaving net debt at $481.3M.
  • Revenue contracted in both FY2024 by 4.7% and FY2025 by 1.3%, highlighting sensitivity to cyclical manufacturing demand.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this MSM AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: MSM income statement, MSM balance sheet, MSM key metrics, MSM analyst forecast, MSM chart. See the MSM stock overview for the latest quote and news.

MSM AI stock analysis FAQ

What is MSC Industrial Direct's dividend yield and payout schedule?

MSC pays an annualized forward dividend of $3.56 per share, delivering a yield of 2.73%. Distributions are paid on a quarterly schedule, backed by 24 consecutive years of payments.

How did MSC perform in its most recent fiscal year?

In FY2025, MSC reported revenue of $3.77B, down 1.3% year-over-year, and net income of $199.3M. Operating cash flow reached $333.7M, resulting in free cash flow of $240.9M.

How do analysts view MSM stock?

Wall Street holds 4 positive ratings (3 Strong Buy, 1 Buy), 6 Hold ratings, and 1 Strong Sell rating. The average price target of $134.25 implies approximately 3.0% upside from the recent price of $130.38.

What is MSC Industrial Direct's valuation relative to industrial peers?

MSM trades at a trailing P/E of 31.5x and an EV to EBITDA of 17.0x, above the US-listed Industrials peer medians of 24.8x and 13.9x, respectively.

More Industrials AI stock analysis