Ferguson plc (FERG) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: FERGAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

FERG AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Ferguson plc is a major distributor of plumbing, HVAC, and infrastructure products operating across North America. For the trailing twelve months, the company generated $31.45B in revenue with an operating margin of 10.2%. FERG trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 22.8x with a forward dividend yield of 1.54%.

Market cap
$44.81B
Revenue (TTM)
$31.45B
P/E
22.8x
fwd 17.6x
1Y return
-0.2%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$283.45
22.4% vs last close

Bull case

  • Ferguson trades at a forward P/E of 17.6x and EV/EBITDA of 15.6x, both discounted relative to the S&P 500 Industrials medians of 20.7x and 17.7x.
  • Wall Street analysts maintain a mean price target of $283.45, implying 22.4% upside from the recent close of $231.61.
  • Shareholder returns remain steady with a 33.4% trailing return on equity and a 12.9% reduction in share count over the past 5 years.

Bear case

  • The 5-year revenue CAGR stands at -17.4%, reflecting significant multi-year top-line contraction from FY2021 to FY2026.
  • Total debt of $6.41B exceeds cash reserves of $437.0M, resulting in net debt of $5.97B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.03.
  • Trailing 1-year total returns of -0.2% significantly lagged the S&P 500 benchmark return of 16.8%.

What Ferguson does

Ferguson plc is a distributor of plumbing and heating products serving residential, commercial, civil, infrastructure, and industrial markets across the United States and Canada. Under the Ferguson brand name, it provides plumbing, heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), fire protection, appliances, and fabrication services. Under the Wolseley brand, it supplies pipes, valves, fittings, refrigeration equipment, and water and wastewater treatment products. The company also offers after-sales support such as warranty services, credit facilities, project-based billing, and repair solutions. It operates through a network of 1,720 branches and 11 distribution centers, reaching customers through wholesale, retail, and digital channels.

Growth and profitability

Ferguson generated trailing twelve month revenue of $31.45B with net income yielding an operating margin of 10.2% and an EPS of $10.16. In its latest quarter ending July 31, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 4.6% year-over-year while quarterly earnings expanded 6.9%. Over recent full fiscal years, revenue grew from $28.57B in FY2022 to $29.73B in FY2023, dipped slightly to $29.64B in FY2024, and rose to $30.76B in FY2025. In FY2026, revenue stood at $8.75B with net income of $666.0M, an operating margin of 10.2%, and EPS of $10.61. Gross margin improved modestly to 31.0% in FY2026 from 30.7% in FY2025.

FERG income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of July 31, 2026, Ferguson held $437.0M in cash and short-term investments alongside total debt of $6.41B, resulting in net debt of $5.97B. Shareholders' equity was $6.20B, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.03 and a current ratio of 1.73. During FY2026, the company generated operating cash flow of $716.0M and free cash flow of $482.0M. Capital expenditures totaled $234.0M, while capital returns included $438.0M in share buybacks and $347.0M in dividends paid, contributing to a 12.9% reduction in share count over 5 years.

FERG balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Ferguson trades at a trailing P/E of 22.8x and a forward P/E of 17.6x, compared to medians of 28.5x and 20.7x for its S&P 500 Industrials peers. Its enterprise value stands at $49.24B, representing an EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.6x compared to the peer median of 17.7x. The company's price-to-sales ratio of 1.4x is also lower than the peer median of 3.3x. Over the past year, FERG shares declined 0.2%, trailing the 16.8% gain for the S&P 500 (SPY), while its 5-year return of 76.2% trails SPY's 83.0% return.

FERG key metrics →

FERG dividend

Ferguson pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward rate of $3.56 per share, representing a dividend yield of 1.54%. The company maintains a payout ratio of 33.6% and has paid dividends for 16 consecutive years. Over the past 5 years, dividend growth has been -2.0% annualized. The last ex-dividend date occurred on August 21, 2026.

FERG dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street analysts hold 12 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, and 9 Hold recommendations on Ferguson, with zero Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $283.45, which is 22.4% above its last closing price of $231.61. For the current fiscal year, analysts estimate revenue of $33.10B and EPS of $11.46. For the next fiscal year, 13 analysts project revenue of $35.62B and EPS of $12.75. Ferguson has beaten EPS estimates in each of its last 4 quarters.

FERG forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Net debt stands at $5.97B against $437.0M in cash and cash equivalents as of July 31, 2026.
  • Quarterly revenue growth of 4.6% year-over-year lags the S&P 500 Industrials peer median of 10.3%.
  • The stock price of $231.61 trades 1.9% below its 200-day moving average and remains down from its 52-week high of $271.64.
  • The annualized 5-year dividend growth rate of -2.0% indicates past reductions in dividend payouts.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this FERG AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Ferguson plc (FERG). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: FERG income statement, FERG balance sheet, FERG key metrics, FERG analyst forecast, FERG chart. See the FERG stock overview for the latest quote and news.

FERG AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Ferguson plc's dividend yield and payout schedule?

Ferguson offers an annual forward dividend of $3.56 per share, yielding 1.54%. It pays dividends quarterly with a payout ratio of 33.6%.

What is the consensus analyst price target for FERG stock?

Analysts have an average price target of $283.45 for Ferguson, which sits 22.4% above its closing price of $231.61 on October 16, 2026.

How does Ferguson's valuation compare to its peer group?

Ferguson trades at a forward P/E of 17.6x and an EV/EBITDA of 15.6x, which are both lower than the S&P 500 Industrials peer medians of 20.7x and 17.7x.

What is Ferguson's current debt level?

As of July 31, 2026, Ferguson carried $6.41B in total debt and $437.0M in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $5.97B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.03.

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