Fastenal Company (FAST) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: FASTAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

FAST AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Fastenal Company is a wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies, including fasteners, safety supplies, and tools. In FY2025, the company generated $8.20B in revenue and $1.26B in net income. For the latest quarter ended September 30, 2026, revenue increased 15.5% year-over-year while operating margin reached 21.6% over the trailing twelve months.

Market cap
$58.55B
Revenue (TTM)
$9.08B
P/E
41.5x
fwd 37.5x
1Y return
24.2%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$51.07
0.1% vs last close

Bull case

  • Fastenal achieved quarterly revenue growth of 15.5% and quarterly earnings growth of 20.7% year-over-year in the period ended September 30, 2026.
  • The company maintains strong capital efficiency, delivering a return on equity of 35.3% and a return on assets of 22.0% over the trailing twelve months.
  • Balance sheet leverage is modest, evidenced by a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 and total debt of $451.7M against $4.15B in equity.

Bear case

  • Fastenal trades at a forward P/E of 37.5x, well above the median of its Nasdaq-100 Industrials peers at 22.2x.
  • Gross margin has declined over several years, drifting from 46.2% in FY2021 down to 45.0% in FY2025.
  • Analyst sentiment is cautious, featuring 5 Sell or Strong Sell ratings and a mean price target of $51.07 that implies just 0.1% upside.

What Fastenal does

Established in 1967 and headquartered in Winona, Minnesota, Fastenal Company specializes in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies across the United States, Canada, Mexico, and globally. Under the Fastenal brand, the company distributes fasteners and related products such as threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, washers, pins, concrete anchors, wire ropes, and rivets. Fastenal serves manufacturing entities, original equipment manufacturers, maintenance, repair, and operations customers, and non-residential construction contractors. In addition, it supplies operations in agriculture, transportation, mining, education, retail, government, and oil exploration, production, and refinement.

Growth and profitability

From FY2021 to FY2025, Fastenal grew annual revenue from $6.01B to $8.20B, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 7.7%. Annual net income expanded from $925.0M in FY2021 to $1.26B in FY2025, with EPS advancing from $0.81 to $1.10. Operating margin remained steady across the period, moving from 20.3% in FY2021 to 20.2% in FY2025, while gross margin shifted from 46.2% to 45.0%. Over the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2026, revenue stood at $9.08B with net income yielding an EPS of $1.23. In the latest quarter, quarterly revenue growth accelerated to 15.5% year-over-year, and quarterly earnings grew 20.7%.

FAST income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of September 30, 2026, Fastenal held $211.9M in cash and short-term investments alongside $451.7M in total debt, resulting in net debt of $239.8M. The company maintains a current ratio of 3.93 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 against $4.15B in shareholders' equity. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $1.30B, funding $245.3M in capital expenditures to generate $1.05B in free cash flow. Cash returned to shareholders in FY2025 included $1.00B in dividends paid, while the 5-year share count change was -0.5%.

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Valuation and performance

Fastenal trades at a trailing P/E of 41.5x and a forward P/E of 37.5x, compared to 28.5x and 22.2x, respectively, for the median of its Nasdaq-100 Industrials peers. The company's EV/EBITDA of 30.0x and price-to-sales ratio of 6.4x also trade above peer medians of 19.9x and 6.1x. Its PEG ratio stands at 3.39. Fastenal's stock closed at $51.02 on October 16, 2026, delivering a 1-year return of 24.2% and a 5-year return of 106.5%, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) returns of 16.8% and 83.0% over those same intervals.

FAST key metrics →

FAST dividend

Fastenal pays a quarterly dividend with a forward annualized payout of $1.04 per share, translating to a dividend yield of 2.04%. The company has paid consecutive dividends for 37 years and holds a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 4.6%. For FY2025, its dividend payout ratio stood at 65.4%, and the latest ex-dividend date was October 28, 2026.

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What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 6 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 7 Hold, 3 Sell, and 2 Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $51.07, representing an upside of 0.1% over the last close of $51.02. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $9.32B and EPS of $1.27, representing 16.4% earnings growth. Over the last 4 quarters, Fastenal has exceeded EPS estimates 1 time.

FAST forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • A high PEG ratio of 3.39 leaves the valuation sensitive to any slowdown from the projected 10.5% next-year EPS growth.
  • Fastenal has beaten consensus EPS estimates only 1 time in the last 4 quarters, demonstrating recent inconsistency in meeting expectations.
  • With a dividend payout ratio of 65.4% and $1.00B paid in dividends in FY2025, substantial cash commitments limit retained capital for other uses.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this FAST AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Fastenal Company (FAST). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: FAST income statement, FAST balance sheet, FAST key metrics, FAST analyst forecast, FAST chart. See the FAST stock overview for the latest quote and news.

FAST AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Fastenal's dividend yield and payment schedule?

Fastenal pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward rate of $1.04 per share, offering a dividend yield of 2.04%. The company has paid dividends for 37 consecutive years.

How fast is Fastenal growing revenue and earnings?

In the latest quarter ended September 30, 2026, Fastenal posted 15.5% year-over-year revenue growth and 20.7% earnings growth. Over the 5-year span from FY2020 to FY2025, revenue grew at a CAGR of 7.7%.

How does Fastenal's valuation compare to its peers?

Fastenal's trailing P/E of 41.5x and forward P/E of 37.5x sit higher than the median of its Nasdaq-100 Industrials peers, which trade at 28.5x and 22.2x, respectively. Its EV/EBITDA multiple is 30.0x compared to the peer median of 19.9x.

What are analysts forecasting for Fastenal's financial performance?

Analysts project FY2026 revenue of $9.32B and EPS of $1.27, followed by FY2027 revenue of $10.21B and EPS of $1.40. The consensus mean price target is $51.07, representing a 0.1% premium to the last closing price of $51.02.

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