The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) AI Stock Analysis

The GEO Group, Inc. is a provider of diversified government services specializing in the design, financing, development, and support of secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry programs across the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. Its service suite spans in-custody rehabilitation, post-release support through the GEO Continuum of Care, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care solutions. The company manages a portfolio encompassing ownership and operational support for 102 facilities totaling approximately 82,000 beds, supported by approximately 18,000 employees.

Between FY2021 and FY2025, annual revenue expanded from $2.26B to $2.63B, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 2.3%. FY2025 revenue grew 8.6%, with net income rising to $254.4M and net margin at 9.7%, up from $32.0M and 1.3% in FY2024. Operating margins fluctuated across the period, landing at 9.8% in FY2025 compared to 16.2% in FY2022. For the trailing twelve months, revenue was $2.83B with an operating margin of 13.9% and diluted EPS of $2.13. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 15.1% year-over-year while quarterly earnings surged 71.4%.

As of June 30, 2026, The GEO Group held $57.1M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $1.61B, leaving net debt at $1.55B. Shareholders' equity was $1.52B, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06 and a current ratio of 1.65. Operating cash flow fell to $72.6M in FY2025 from $242.2M in FY2024, while free cash flow was -$124.9M after accounting for $197.5M in capital expenditures. Cash deployment in FY2025 also included $91.0M spent on share buybacks, though share count expanded 9.5% over 5 years.

At $28.66 per share, GEO carries a market capitalization of $3.77B and an enterprise value of $5.58B. It trades at a trailing P/E of 13.5x and an EV/EBITDA of 8.2x, below the median of its US-listed Industrials peers at 24.8x and 13.9x, respectively. Its forward P/E of 19.0x stands above the peer median of 17.2x, alongside a price-to-sales multiple of 1.3x and price-to-book of 2.7x. The stock returned 71.2% over the past year and 244.9% over five years, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) benchmarks of 16.8% and 83.0% over the identical timeframes.

Wall Street sentiment is unanimous across tracked analysts, with 3 Strong Buy ratings and no Buy, Hold, or Sell ratings. The mean price target of $39.00 indicates an implied upside of 36.1% relative to the closing price of $28.66 on October 16, 2026. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus calls for revenue of $2.99B and EPS of $1.31, representing 52.0% EPS growth. In the following fiscal year, 4 analysts estimate revenue of $3.26B and EPS of $1.72. GEO beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for November 5, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: GEO income statement, GEO balance sheet, GEO key metrics, GEO analyst forecast, GEO chart. See the GEO stock overview for the latest quote and news.