CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: CXWAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

CXW AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) operates correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities across the United States. In the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, the company generated $2.48B in revenue with quarterly revenue growth of 27.3% year-over-year. The stock has delivered a 72.9% return over the past year and trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.3x.

Market cap
$3.03B
Revenue (TTM)
$2.48B
P/E
24.5x
fwd 12.3x
1Y return
72.9%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$41.80
36.3% vs last close

Bull case

  • Revenue expanded 27.3% year-over-year in the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of 12.3x, lower than the 17.2x median of its US-listed Industrials peers.
  • All 4 covering analysts rate the company a StrongBuy, with a mean price target of $41.80 that sits 36.3% above the last close.

Bear case

  • The company holds $1.35B in total debt and $1.24B in net debt against $108.9M in cash and short-term investments as of June 30, 2026.
  • Free cash flow fell from $198.0M in FY2024 to $54.0M in FY2025 as capital expenditures rose to $140.6M.
  • Short interest represents 17.2% of the float, pointing to substantial market skepticism.

What CoreCivic does

CoreCivic, Inc. is an operator of correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities across the United States. Founded in 1983 and based in Brentwood, Tennessee, the company operates across three segments: CoreCivic Safety, CoreCivic Community, and CoreCivic Properties. Through these divisions, CoreCivic provides corrections and detention management services to government partners, as well as rehabilitation programs such as basic education, vocational training, faith-based programs, life skills, employment training, and substance abuse treatment. The company also offers government real estate solutions by managing and leasing specialized properties to government agencies.

Growth and profitability

Between FY2021 and FY2025, CoreCivic increased revenue from $1.86B to $2.21B, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 3.0%. Annual top-line growth accelerated to 12.7% in FY2025, improving from 3.4% in FY2024 and 2.8% in FY2023, after declines of 2.2% in FY2021 and 0.9% in FY2022. Net income transitioned from -$51.9M in FY2021 to $116.5M in FY2025, with operating margin reaching 15.8%. Over the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue reached $2.48B with an operating margin of 10.2% and a profit margin of 5.1%. In the latest quarter, year-over-year revenue grew 27.3% while earnings increased 5.7%.

CXW income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, CoreCivic held $108.9M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $1.35B, resulting in net debt of $1.24B. Shareholders' equity was $1.44B, bringing debt-to-equity to 0.94, while the current ratio stood at 1.32. Operating cash flow in FY2025 reached $194.6M and free cash flow was $54.0M. Cash deployment in FY2025 included $140.6M in capital expenditures, $229.0M spent on share buybacks, and $45,000 in dividends paid.

CXW balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At the last close of $30.67 on October 16, 2026, CoreCivic had a market capitalization of $3.03B and an enterprise value of $4.43B. Its trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 24.5x sits slightly below the 24.8x median of its US-listed Industrials peers. The company's forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.3x and enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 11.3x also trade below their peer medians of 17.2x and 13.9x, respectively. Over the trailing year, CXW gained 72.9%, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%.

CXW key metrics →

What analysts expect

All 4 analysts covering CoreCivic assign it a StrongBuy rating, with 0 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell, and 0 StrongSell ratings. The mean price target is $41.80, representing 36.3% upside compared to the last close of $30.67. Consensus estimates project FY2026 EPS of $1.68 on revenue of $2.70B, and FY2027 EPS of $2.42 on revenue of $2.93B. CoreCivic beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 4, 2026.

CXW forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Net debt of $1.24B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.94 limit balance sheet flexibility relative to $108.9M in cash.
  • A trailing twelve month profit margin of 5.1% leaves little insulation against rising operational expenses.
  • Elevated short interest of 17.2% of float leaves the stock exposed to heightened price volatility.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this CXW AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: CXW income statement, CXW balance sheet, CXW key metrics, CXW analyst forecast, CXW chart. See the CXW stock overview for the latest quote and news.

CXW AI stock analysis FAQ

Does CoreCivic pay a dividend?

CoreCivic paid $45,000 in dividends in FY2025, directing the majority of its capital return toward share buybacks totaling $229.0M that year.

What is CoreCivic's valuation relative to peers?

CoreCivic trades at a forward P/E of 12.3x and an EV/EBITDA of 11.3x, both of which are below the US-listed Industrials peer medians of 17.2x and 13.9x, respectively.

How much debt does CoreCivic have?

As of June 30, 2026, CoreCivic had total debt of $1.35B and cash and short-term investments of $108.9M, which translates to net debt of $1.24B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.94.

When is CoreCivic's next earnings report?

CoreCivic's next earnings release is scheduled for November 4, 2026.

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