ADT Inc. (ADT) AI Stock Analysis
ADT AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchADT Inc. provides monitored security, smart home automation, and protection services across the United States. The company generated $5.16B in trailing twelve month revenue with an operating margin of 24.1%. ADT operates with significant leverage, holding $7.69B in total debt while trading at a forward P/E of 6.3x.
- Market cap
- $5.02B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $5.16B
- P/E
- 9.4x fwd 6.3x
- 1Y return
- -16.9% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $8.13 18.3% vs last close
Bull case
- ADT generated $1.31B in free cash flow in FY2025, funding $607.0M in share buybacks and $187.0M in dividend payments.
- The stock trades at a forward P/E of 6.3x and an EV to EBITDA of 4.6x, well below the US-listed Industrials peer medians of 17.2x and 13.9x.
- Operating margins expanded to 26.0% in FY2025, up significantly from 1.0% in FY2021.
Bear case
- Total debt reached $7.69B as of June 30, 2026, against only $4.0M in cash and short-term investments.
- Revenue contracted at a 5-year CAGR of -0.7% from FY2020 to FY2025, and quarterly revenue grew just 2.0% in the latest quarter.
- Shares dropped 16.9% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 gain of 16.8%.
What ADT does
ADT Inc. is a provider of security, automation, and smart home solutions serving residential and business clients across the United States. It operates through three segments: Consumer and Small Business, Commercial, and Solar. The company's services include fire detection, fire suppression, video surveillance, and access control systems. Its monitored security solutions detect intrusion and monitor environmental hazards like smoke, fire, carbon monoxide, flooding, and temperature changes. ADT also offers automation tools allowing customers to remotely manage security, lights, thermostats, appliances, and cameras via smartphones or touchscreen panels, backed by continuous monitoring and maintenance services.
Growth and profitability
ADT's revenue stood at $5.31B in FY2021 before rising to $6.40B in FY2022. Revenue fell 27.2% to $4.65B in FY2023, then recovered to $4.90B in FY2024 and $5.13B in FY2025. Over the 5-year period from FY2020 to FY2025, revenue contracted at a CAGR of -0.7%. Net income improved from -$340.8M in FY2021 to $596.0M in FY2025, lifting net margin to 11.6%. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue totaled $5.16B with EPS of $0.73. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue grew 2.0% year-over-year and quarterly earnings rose 1.7%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, ADT held $4.0M in cash and short-term investments against $7.69B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $7.68B. Its current ratio was 0.69, and its debt-to-equity ratio stood at 2.21 based on shareholders' equity of $3.48B. During FY2025, ADT produced $1.89B in operating cash flow and $1.31B in free cash flow. Cash deployment included $572.0M for capital expenditures, $607.0M for share buybacks, and $187.0M in dividends paid.
Valuation and performance
ADT trades at a trailing P/E of 9.4x and a forward P/E of 6.3x, lower than the median of its US-listed Industrials peers of 24.8x and 17.2x, respectively. Its enterprise value to EBITDA ratio is 4.6x, compared to the peer median of 13.9x, and its price-to-sales ratio is 1.0x versus the peer median of 1.5x. Over the past year, ADT shares fell 16.9%, underperforming the 16.8% return of the S&P 500. Over five years, the stock dropped 8.0%, compared to an 83.0% gain for the benchmark.
ADT dividend
ADT offers a forward annual dividend of $0.22 per share, which equals a dividend yield of 3.20%. Its payout ratio is 24.4%, and dividends are paid on a quarterly basis. The company has paid dividends for 9 consecutive years and achieved a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 9.5%. The most recent ex-dividend date was September 10, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage consists of 2 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 3 Hold, and 1 Sell ratings. The mean price target is $8.13, which is 18.3% above the last close of $6.87. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts expect EPS of $0.92 on revenue of $5.22B. ADT beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings release is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Short-term liquidity is constrained, evidenced by a current ratio of 0.69 and only $4.0M in cash reserves.
- A high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.21 exposes the company to elevated balance sheet and interest rate risks.
- Top-line expansion remains muted, with quarterly revenue growth slowing to 2.0% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this ADT AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of ADT Inc. (ADT). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: ADT income statement, ADT balance sheet, ADT key metrics, ADT analyst forecast, ADT chart. See the ADT stock overview for the latest quote and news.
ADT AI stock analysis FAQ
What is ADT's dividend yield and payout schedule?
ADT pays a forward annual dividend of $0.22 per share, representing a 3.20% yield. Distributions are made quarterly, backed by a payout ratio of 24.4%.
How much debt does ADT carry?
As of June 30, 2026, ADT held $7.69B in total debt and $4.0M in cash and short-term investments, leaving net debt at $7.68B. Its debt-to-equity ratio was 2.21.
How is ADT valued compared to its sector peers?
ADT trades at a forward P/E of 6.3x and an EV to EBITDA of 4.6x. Both multiples trade at a discount to the median of its US-listed Industrials peers, which sit at 17.2x and 13.9x, respectively.
When is ADT's next earnings report and what are analysts forecasting?
ADT's next earnings date is November 3, 2026. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $0.92 on revenue of $5.22B.