First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) AI Stock Analysis

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., based in Bradenton, Florida, is an operator and franchisor of restaurants primarily under the First Watch brand. Established in 1983 and formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc., the company rebranded in December 2019. It operates as a breakfast, brunch, and lunch chain emphasizing wholesome ingredients and innovative menu offerings. As of September 7, 2022, the company operated 445 restaurants spanning 28 states. The concept focuses on fresh meals in a relaxed atmosphere, catering to daytime dining occasions while expanding its restaurant portfolio and presence across the United States.

First Watch generated a five-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 29.0% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual revenue expanded from $601.2M in FY2021 to $1.02B in FY2024 and $1.22B in FY2025, reflecting 20.3% growth in FY2025. Net income shifted from -$2.1M in FY2021 to $19.4M in FY2025, alongside an operating margin of 2.8%. In the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $1.32B with an operating margin of 2.5% and EPS of $0.28. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue growth was 15.2% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings grew 26.4%.

As of June 30, 2026, First Watch held $20.5M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $1.07B, resulting in net debt of $1.05B. Total assets stood at $1.82B, while shareholders' equity was $634.2M, giving a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.69 and a current ratio of 0.27. Operating cash flow reached $125.9M in FY2025, but capital expenditures of $156.9M led to free cash flow of -$31.0M. Additionally, the share count increased 7.8% over five years.

At a closing price of $12.12 on October 16, 2026, First Watch carried a market capitalization of $748.0M and an enterprise value of $1.69B. Its trailing P/E of 43.3x and forward P/E of 63.7x compare to 18.0x and 14.1x for the median of its US-listed Consumer Cyclical peers. The stock traded at an EV/EBITDA of 15.0x, above the peer median of 11.1x. Over the past year, the stock returned -31.1%, while the S&P 500 (SPY) returned 16.8%. Over five years, the stock returned -43.9% versus 83.0% for the S&P 500.

Wall Street sentiment shows 10 Strong Buy ratings and no Buy, Hold, Sell, or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target of $18.60 represents an upside of 53.5% over the last close of $12.12. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $1.39B and EPS of $0.13, indicating an EPS decline of 68.7%. For FY2027, 9 analysts project revenue of $1.55B and EPS of $0.25. The company beat EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with its next earnings date scheduled for November 3, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

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