Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: FOURAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

FOUR AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) is an integrated payment processing and software technology provider. The company grew revenue to $4.18B in FY2025, driven by a 5-year revenue CAGR of 40.4%, but net income declined to $119.0M from $229.6M in FY2024. As of June 30, 2026, total debt stood at $4.57B, creating a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.82.

Market cap
$3.11B
Revenue (TTM)
$4.78B
P/E
62.6x
fwd 6.4x
1Y return
-46.8%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$52.86
34.1% vs last close

Bull case

  • Annual revenue expanded at a 5-year CAGR of 40.4% from FY2020 through FY2025, reaching $4.18B.
  • Free cash flow grew to $499.0M in FY2025, supporting capital deployment including $487.0M in share repurchases.
  • Shift4 Payments trades at a forward P/E of 6.4x, well below the US-listed Technology peer median of 18.8x.

Bear case

  • Quarterly earnings fell 75.4% year-over-year in the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • Total debt stood at $4.57B as of June 30, 2026, yielding a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.82.
  • The stock posted a 1-year return of -46.8%, underperforming the S&P 500 return of 16.8%.

What Shift4 Payments does

Shift4 Payments, Inc. delivers omni-channel card acceptance and integrated payment processing solutions across the United States. Its services span credit, debit, contactless cards, QR Pay, mobile wallets, and merchant acquiring via a proprietary omni-channel gateway. The company supports merchant operations with mobile and integrated point-of-sale solutions, risk management, tokenization, fraud prevention, and analytics tools like Lighthouse. Shift4 Payments serves targeted sectors with dedicated products, such as VenueNext for stadium and entertainment venue ticketing, mobile ordering, and self-service kiosks, alongside Shift4Shop for eCommerce storefront design, catalog hosting, and order fulfillment integration.

Growth and profitability

Shift4 Payments expanded annual revenue from $1.37B in FY2021 to $4.18B in FY2025, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 40.4%. Gross margin widened each year over that span, rising from 20.4% in FY2021 to 34.2% in FY2025, while operating margin reached 8.4%. Net income was $119.0M in FY2025, down from $229.6M in FY2024. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $4.78B with an operating margin of 7.5% and a net profit margin of 2.2%. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 34.1% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings dropped 75.4%.

FOUR income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Shift4 Payments held $356.0M in cash and short-term investments alongside $4.57B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $4.21B. Shareholders' equity was $1.62B, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.82 and a current ratio of 1.21. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $634.0M and free cash flow was $499.0M. Capital expenditures used $135.0M in FY2025, while share buybacks totaled $487.0M and dividends paid accounted for $30.0M. Over 5 years, the share count increased 42.7%.

FOUR balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Shift4 Payments traded at a trailing P/E of 62.6x as of October 16, 2026, above the 28.1x median of its US-listed Technology peers. However, its forward P/E of 6.4x, price-to-sales of 0.7x, and EV-to-EBITDA of 7.7x sat below the peer group medians of 18.8x, 2.8x, and 16.6x, respectively. The stock's 1-year return of -46.8% lagged the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%, and its 5-year return of -47.9% trailed the index return of 83.0%.

FOUR key metrics →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 10 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, and 13 Hold ratings, with zero Sell or Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target of $52.86 represents a 34.1% upside from the last close of $39.43 on October 16, 2026. For FY2026, analysts estimate revenue of $5.12B and EPS of $5.20. For FY2027, 25 analysts forecast revenue of $5.80B and EPS of $6.10. Shift4 Payments beat EPS estimates in 1 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 5, 2026.

FOUR forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • A heavy net debt burden of $4.21B as of June 30, 2026, leaves the balance sheet sensitive to financing pressures.
  • Earnings consistency remains uneven, with the company beating EPS expectations in only 1 of the trailing 4 quarters.
  • Short interest represents 18.8% of the float, pointing to elevated market skepticism.
  • The 5-year share count change of 42.7% highlights past equity dilution.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this FOUR AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: FOUR income statement, FOUR balance sheet, FOUR key metrics, FOUR analyst forecast, FOUR chart. See the FOUR stock overview for the latest quote and news.

FOUR AI stock analysis FAQ

What was Shift4 Payments' revenue growth in FY2025?

Revenue in FY2025 grew 25.5% to $4.18B, up from $3.33B in FY2024.

What is Shift4 Payments' debt situation?

As of June 30, 2026, the company held $4.57B in total debt and $356.0M in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $4.21B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.82.

What are analysts forecasting for Shift4 Payments?

For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $5.12B and EPS of $5.20. For the following fiscal year, 25 analysts expect revenue to rise 13.4% to $5.80B with EPS reaching $6.10.

When does Shift4 Payments report earnings next?

Shift4 Payments is scheduled to report earnings on November 5, 2026.

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