Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: MSFTAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

MSFT AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Microsoft Corporation is a global technology company providing software, cloud infrastructure, hardware, and digital services. In FY2026, the company generated $331.84B in revenue, up 17.8% year-over-year, alongside a net margin of 40.3%. Operating cash flow reached $182.94B, supporting $115.95B in capital expenditures.

Market cap
$3.93T
Revenue (TTM)
$331.84B
P/E
29.5x
fwd 25.1x
1Y return
4.3%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$599.24
13.3% vs last close

Bull case

  • Annual net income reached $133.75B in FY2026, with net margin widening to 40.3%.
  • Operating cash flow climbed to $182.94B in FY2026, up from $136.16B in FY2025.
  • Trailing P/E of 29.5x trades below the median of its Nasdaq-100 Technology peers of 43.3x.

Bear case

  • Capital expenditures surged to $115.95B in FY2026, pulling free cash flow down to $66.99B.
  • The 1-year share return of 4.3% lagged the S&P 500 return of 16.8%.
  • Net debt rose to $51.97B as of June 30, 2026, with total debt reaching $128.81B.

What Microsoft does

Microsoft Corporation offers software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide across three primary operating segments: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes division delivers Office, Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Skype for Business, and Dynamics 365 business applications. Intelligent Cloud provides server products and cloud infrastructure services, including Azure, SQL, Windows Server, Visual Studio, System Center, GitHub, and Nuance. The More Personal Computing division encompasses Windows licensing, patent licensing, and devices such as Surface PCs.

Growth and profitability

Microsoft expanded revenue from $198.27B in FY2022 to $331.84B in FY2026, achieving a 5-year revenue CAGR of 14.6% from FY2021 to FY2026. Annual revenue growth improved from 6.9% in FY2023 to 17.8% in FY2026. Gross margin stood at 67.9% in FY2026, while operating margin expanded to 46.8%. Net income reached $133.75B in FY2026, delivering diluted EPS of $17.89. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 17.7% year-over-year, and quarterly earnings expanded by 31.7%. Research and development expense totaled $35.56B in FY2026.

MSFT income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Microsoft held $76.84B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $128.81B, leaving net debt at $51.97B. Total assets stood at $758.38B against shareholders' equity of $442.39B. Liquidity remained sound with a current ratio of 1.23 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29. In FY2026, operating cash flow was $182.94B, while free cash flow reached $66.99B. Capital allocation included $115.95B in capital expenditures, $22.27B in share buybacks, and $26.45B in dividends paid.

MSFT balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At a last close of $529.05, Microsoft carried a market cap of $3.93T and an enterprise value of $3.70T. The stock traded at a trailing P/E of 29.5x and a forward P/E of 25.1x, compared to the median of its Nasdaq-100 Technology peers of 43.3x trailing and 25.7x forward. Its price-to-sales of 11.8x and EV/EBITDA of 17.7x were also below the median of its Nasdaq-100 Technology peers of 12.4x and 32.8x. Over the past year, the stock returned 4.3%, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%.

MSFT key metrics →

MSFT dividend

Microsoft pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward payout of $3.92 per share, yielding 0.74%. The dividend payout ratio stands at 20.3%. The company has paid consecutive dividends for 24 years, generating a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 10.2%. Its last ex-dividend date is listed as November 19, 2026.

MSFT dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 40 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, and 3 Hold ratings, with zero Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target of $599.24 implies an upside of 13.3% versus the last close of $529.05. For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2027, consensus estimates project EPS of $19.78 on revenue of $391.35B. The company beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with its next earnings release scheduled for October 28, 2026.

MSFT forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Elevated capital spending of $115.95B in FY2026 could pressure future free cash flow if revenue growth slows.
  • Total debt of $128.81B exceeds cash and short-term investments of $76.84B.
  • Gross margin declined from 69.8% in FY2024 to 67.9% in FY2026.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this MSFT AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: MSFT income statement, MSFT balance sheet, MSFT key metrics, MSFT analyst forecast, MSFT chart. See the MSFT stock overview for the latest quote and news.

MSFT AI stock analysis FAQ

What was Microsoft's revenue and earnings performance in FY2026?

In FY2026, Microsoft reported revenue of $331.84B, representing 17.8% annual growth. Net income was $133.75B, resulting in diluted EPS of $17.89.

How do analysts rate MSFT stock?

Analysts maintain 40 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, and 3 Hold ratings on MSFT. The consensus mean price target is $599.24, which is 13.3% above the last close of $529.05.

What dividend does Microsoft pay?

Microsoft pays an annualized forward dividend of $3.92 per share, offering a dividend yield of 0.74%. The dividend payout ratio is 20.3%, and payments have been made for 24 consecutive years.

How much cash and debt does Microsoft have?

As of June 30, 2026, Microsoft held $76.84B in cash and short-term investments alongside total debt of $128.81B. This resulted in net debt of $51.97B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29.

When is Microsoft's next earnings report?

Microsoft's next earnings release date is October 28, 2026. The company has beaten EPS expectations in all 4 of its last 4 quarters.

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