The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) AI Stock Analysis

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is an operator in the casual dining sector, managing a network of restaurants alongside two bakeries producing baked goods, including signature cheesecakes. The bakery products serve its own restaurants, international licensees, third-party customers, foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors. As of October 27, 2022, the company operated 312 restaurants in the United States and Canada under brands including The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and Fox Restaurant Concepts. It also had 29 licensed Cheesecake Factory restaurants in international markets. Founded in 1972 and based in Calabasas, California, the company employs 48,000 people.

The company achieved a 5-year revenue CAGR of 13.6% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual revenue grew from $2.93B in FY2021 to $3.30B in FY2022, $3.44B in FY2023, $3.58B in FY2024, and $3.75B in FY2025. Gross margin expanded from 41.1% in FY2021 to 78.3% in FY2025, while operating margin rose from 2.8% to 5.0%. Net income moved from $72.4M in FY2021 to $148.4M in FY2025, generating diluted EPS of $3.77. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue growth was 7.7% year-over-year and quarterly earnings growth reached 23.7% year-over-year, supporting trailing twelve-month revenue of $3.88B and EPS of $3.69.

As of June 30, 2026, the company held $195.2M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $2.08B, resulting in net debt of $1.89B. Total assets stood at $3.29B, with shareholders equity of $519.0M, a current ratio of 0.59, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.01. Operating cash flow grew to $301.3M in FY2025, producing free cash flow of $155.1M. Capital allocation in FY2025 included $146.2M in capital expenditures, $153.9M in share buybacks, and $52.2M in dividends paid.

At a last close of $114.92, The Cheesecake Factory had a market cap of $5.72B and an enterprise value of $7.08B. Its trailing P/E of 31.1x and forward P/E of 22.6x sit above the median of its US-listed Consumer Cyclical peers of 18.0x and 14.1x, respectively. The stock trades at an EV to EBITDA ratio of 22.2x versus the peer median of 11.1x, and a price-to-sales of 1.5x compared to 0.7x. Over the past year, the stock returned 115.6%, outperforming the S&P 500 return of 16.8%.

The company offers an annual forward dividend of $1.20 per share, reflecting a dividend yield of 1.04% and a payout ratio of 28.1%. Dividends are distributed on a quarterly basis, with the most recent ex-dividend date on August 11, 2026. The Cheesecake Factory has paid dividends for 5 consecutive years and maintained a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 24.6%.

Analyst coverage consists of 4 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 13 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $99.20, which is 13.7% below the last close of $114.92. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $4.03B and EPS of $4.58, representing 21.5% EPS growth. The company beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for October 27, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

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