Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) AI Stock Analysis

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. specializes in delivering vital aerial wildfire management, relief, and suppression services across the United States. Headquartered in Belgrade, Montana, the company operates a specialized fleet of 20 planes dedicated to firefighting and surveillance missions. Bridger Aerospace offers aerial firefighting support that allows ground crews to rapidly drop large volumes of water directly onto wildfires. In addition to fire suppression, the company provides critical aerial surveillance using manned and unmanned aircraft to monitor wildfire incidents closely and provide tactical coordination with incident commanders nationwide.

Bridger Aerospace expanded annual revenue from $39.4M in FY2021 to $122.8M in FY2025, posting annual growth of 24.6% in FY2025 with gross margin reaching 42.1% and operating margin reaching 12.5%. Net income reached $4.1M in FY2025 compared to -$15.6M in FY2024 and -$77.4M in FY2023. Over the 5-year period from FY2020 to FY2025, revenue grew at a CAGR of 55.7%. However, for the trailing twelve months, revenue was $115.4M with a net profit margin of -10.8% and operating margin of 19.6%. In the latest quarter ending June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue fell 0.8% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings grew 20.5%.

As of June 30, 2026, Bridger Aerospace held $7.2M in cash and short-term investments alongside total debt of $267.9M, resulting in net debt of $260.7M. Shareholders' equity stood at $34.3M against total assets of $324.1M, creating a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.81. The company reported a current ratio of 1.73. During FY2025, operating cash flow reached $16.7M, but capital expenditures of $80.9M led to free cash flow of -$64.2M. Over the 5-year period, share count grew 30.9%.

Bridger Aerospace holds a market capitalization of $30.4M and an enterprise value of $733.8M. The stock trades at a price-to-sales multiple of 0.3x and a forward P/E of 11.0x, which compares to 1.5x and 17.2x for the median of its US-listed Industrials peers. Its EV/EBITDA stands at 26.3x, above the peer median of 13.9x. The stock closed at $0.52 on October 16, 2026, sitting 72.1% below its 200-day average. Over the past 1 year, the stock fell 68.7%, underperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%.

Wall Street analysts maintain 3 Strong Buy ratings, 0 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell, and 0 Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $3.67, representing a 610.6% premium over the last close of $0.52. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $136.2M and an EPS of -$0.54. Over the last 4 quarters, the company beat EPS estimates 1 time. The next earnings date is scheduled for November 5, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

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