Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: UNPAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

UNP AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is a major US railroad operator running a network across 32,452 route miles. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $25.41B in revenue with an operating margin of 41.0% and diluted EPS of $12.34. It returned capital to shareholders via $3.24B in dividends and $2.68B in share buybacks in FY2025.

Market cap
$171.71B
Revenue (TTM)
$25.41B
P/E
23.4x
fwd 19.3x
1Y return
31.7%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$327.62
13.3% vs last close

Bull case

  • Operating margin of 41.0% over the trailing twelve months significantly exceeds the S&P 500 Industrials median of 17.3%.
  • Analyst estimates model a 12.3% increase in EPS for FY2026 to $13.09, supported by a mean price target of $327.62.
  • Shareholder distributions remain steady, supported by $5.50B in FY2025 free cash flow and a 47-year track record of dividend payments.

Bear case

  • Total debt reached $31.17B as of June 30, 2026, resulting in net debt of $29.05B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.51.
  • Top-line growth has been modest historically, registering a 5-year revenue CAGR of 4.6% between FY2020 and FY2025.
  • Price-to-sales stands at 6.8x, more than double the S&P 500 Industrials peer median of 3.1x.

What Union Pacific does

Union Pacific Corporation, via Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates freight rail transportation across the United States. Founded in 1862 and headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, its 32,452 route miles link Pacific and Gulf Coast ports with Midwest and Eastern gateways. It moves agricultural commodities like grain, fertilizer, and food products, alongside coal, construction materials, industrial chemicals, plastics, metals, and forest products. The company also ships finished automobiles, automotive parts, and intermodal freight containers.

Growth and profitability

Between FY2021 and FY2025, annual revenue increased from $21.80B to $24.51B, reflecting a 5-year CAGR of 4.6% from FY2020 through FY2025. Annual net income moved from $6.52B in FY2021 to $7.14B in FY2025, with EPS climbing from $9.96 to $11.67 over the same span. In FY2025, operating margin reached 40.1% and net margin was 29.1%. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 11.5% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings expanded by 6.6%. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue totaled $25.41B with a profit margin of 28.8%.

UNP income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Union Pacific held $2.11B in cash and short-term investments against $31.17B in total debt, creating net debt of $29.05B. Shareholders' equity was $20.67B, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.51 and a current ratio of 0.99. In FY2025, the company produced $9.29B in operating cash flow and $5.50B in free cash flow after funding $3.79B in capital expenditures. It allocated $3.24B to dividend payments and $2.68B to share repurchases, reducing its share count by 7.5% over five years.

UNP balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

UNP trades at a trailing P/E of 23.4x and a forward P/E of 19.3x, both below the median of its S&P 500 Industrials peers of 28.5x and 20.7x, respectively. Its enterprise value to EBITDA sits at 14.4x, compared to the peer median of 17.7x, while its price-to-sales of 6.8x is higher than the peer median of 3.1x. Over the past year, UNP returned 31.7%, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over five years, UNP gained 43.7% versus 83.0% for the index.

UNP key metrics →

UNP dividend

Union Pacific pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward rate of $5.68, yielding 1.97%. The payout ratio is 45.3%, and the company has maintained consecutive payments for 47 years. Dividends grew at a 5-year annualized rate of 7.0%, and the last ex-dividend date occurred on August 31, 2026.

UNP dividend history →

What analysts expect

Consensus ratings include 15 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 6 Hold, and 1 Sell recommendations. The mean price target is $327.62, representing a 13.3% premium over the last close of $289.04. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $13.09 on revenue of $27.11B. Union Pacific beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with its next earnings report scheduled for October 22, 2026.

UNP forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Working capital is tight, as reflected by a current ratio of 0.99 as of June 30, 2026.
  • Net debt of $29.05B requires substantial ongoing cash allocation for service and refinancing alongside $3.79B in annual capital expenditures.
  • Trailing five-year stock return of 43.7% lagged the S&P 500 return of 83.0%.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this UNP AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Union Pacific Corporation (UNP). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: UNP income statement, UNP balance sheet, UNP key metrics, UNP analyst forecast, UNP chart. See the UNP stock overview for the latest quote and news.

UNP AI stock analysis FAQ

What dividend does Union Pacific pay?

Union Pacific pays a quarterly dividend totaling $5.68 on an annualized forward basis, which equals a 1.97% dividend yield and a 45.3% payout ratio.

How much debt does Union Pacific carry?

As of June 30, 2026, Union Pacific held $31.17B in total debt and $2.11B in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $29.05B.

What are analysts forecasting for UNP earnings and revenue?

For FY2026, analysts estimate EPS of $13.09 on revenue of $27.11B. For the following fiscal year, 22 analysts estimate EPS of $14.24 on revenue of $28.42B.

When does Union Pacific report its next quarterly results?

The company's next earnings report date is October 22, 2026.

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