The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) AI Stock Analysis
GBX AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchThe Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (NYSE: GBX) is an equipment manufacturer and service provider for the railroad freight industry. While net income expanded to $204.1M in FY2025 despite two consecutive years of revenue declines, TTM revenue contracted to $2.63B with quarterly sales falling 31.6% year-over-year. The company carries $1.81B in total debt and maintains a forward dividend yield of 3.48%.
- Market cap
- $1.21B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $2.63B
- P/E
- 11.6x fwd 11.1x
- 1Y return
- -11.6% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $45.33 15.9% vs last close
Bull case
- Operating margin expanded steadily from 2.3% in FY2021 to 10.4% in FY2025, lifting FY2025 net income to $204.1M.
- Valuation multiples remain discounted compared to the median of US-listed Industrials peers, including a forward P/E of 11.1x versus 17.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.58.
- Analysts project a rebound in the fiscal year ending August 31, 2027, with EPS expected to grow 23.6% to $3.75 on revenue of $2.69B.
Bear case
- Quarterly revenue dropped 31.6% and quarterly earnings dropped 67.7% year-over-year in the quarter ended May 31, 2026.
- Free cash flow has been negative for five consecutive fiscal years, including -$14.7M in FY2025 and -$65.8M in FY2024.
- Balance sheet leverage is elevated with total debt of $1.81B against cash and short-term investments of $273.7M, creating net debt of $1.53B.
What Greenbrier does
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. operates across North America, Europe, and South America through three core segments: Manufacturing, Maintenance Services, and Leasing & Management Services. The Manufacturing segment produces railcars, including covered hopper cars, boxcars, tank cars, intermodal railcars, auto-max, multi-max railcars, and marine vessels. Maintenance Services offers wheel and axle reconditioning, machining, finishing, and railcar repair, as well as parts like couplers, side frames, and boxcar doors. Leasing & Management Services manages approximately 408,000 railcars and leases an owned fleet of about 12,200 railcars, serving railroads, shippers, financial institutions, and transport companies.
Growth and profitability
Revenue grew at a 5-year CAGR of 3.0% from FY2020 through FY2025, reaching a peak of $3.94B in FY2023 before declining to $3.54B in FY2024 and $3.23B in FY2025. Operating margin expanded consistently over that stretch, rising from 2.3% in FY2021 to 10.4% in FY2025, while net margin improved to 6.3% and EPS reached $6.53. However, the latest quarter ended May 31, 2026, showed quarterly revenue fell 31.6% year-over-year and quarterly earnings declined 67.7%, bringing TTM revenue to $2.63B and TTM EPS to $3.38.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of May 31, 2026, Greenbrier held $273.7M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $1.81B, resulting in net debt of $1.53B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.15. The current ratio stood at 3.22 with total assets of $4.35B. Operating cash flow in FY2025 was $265.7M, but free cash flow remained negative at -$14.7M due to capital expenditures of $280.4M. Cash usage in FY2025 also included $22.7M in share buybacks and $39.6M in dividends paid.
Valuation and performance
GBX trades at a trailing P/E of 11.6x and a forward P/E of 11.1x, both below the median of its US-listed Industrials peers of 24.8x and 17.2x, respectively. Its EV/EBITDA of 9.0x is lower than the peer median of 13.9x, and its price-to-sales ratio is 0.5x compared to the peer median of 1.5x. Over the past year, the stock returned -11.6% compared to a 16.8% return for the S&P 500 (SPY), while its 5-year return was -3.9% versus 83.0% for the S&P 500.
GBX dividend
Greenbrier pays an annualized forward dividend of $1.36 per share, representing a 3.48% dividend yield and a payout ratio of 59.7%. Dividends are distributed quarterly and have been paid for 13 consecutive years. The annualized 5-year dividend growth rate is 3.1%, with the last ex-dividend date on July 16, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analyst coverage consists of 0 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 1 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target is $45.33, which is 15.9% above the last close of $39.11. For the fiscal year ended August 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $3.03 on revenue of $2.48B, representing a 54.0% decrease in EPS. The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is October 26, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- The company generated -$14.7M in free cash flow in FY2025 despite producing $265.7M in operating cash flow, driven by $280.4M in capital expenditures.
- Short interest is notable at 12.7% of the float, alongside a beta of 1.44 indicating higher volatility than the broader market.
- Analyst consensus expects current fiscal year EPS to fall 54.0% to $3.03 on reduced revenue of $2.48B.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this GBX AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: GBX income statement, GBX balance sheet, GBX key metrics, GBX analyst forecast, GBX chart. See the GBX stock overview for the latest quote and news.
GBX AI stock analysis FAQ
What is Greenbrier's current dividend yield?
Greenbrier pays an annual forward dividend of $1.36 per share, which equates to a dividend yield of 3.48% based on its $39.11 share price. The payout ratio is 59.7%, and dividends have been paid for 13 consecutive years.
What are analysts forecasting for GBX's upcoming earnings?
For the fiscal year ending August 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $2.48B and EPS of $3.03, representing a 54.0% EPS contraction. Next fiscal year estimates project a recovery to $2.69B in revenue and $3.75 in EPS.
How much debt does Greenbrier carry?
As of May 31, 2026, Greenbrier reported $1.81B in total debt and $273.7M in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $1.53B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.15.
How does Greenbrier's valuation compare to other industrial companies?
Greenbrier trades at a trailing P/E of 11.6x and EV/EBITDA of 9.0x, below the US-listed Industrials peer medians of 24.8x and 13.9x, respectively. Its price-to-book ratio is 0.8x.