Target Corporation (TGT) AI Stock Analysis
TGT AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchTarget Corporation is a general merchandise retailer operating stores and Target.com across the United States. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $107.70B in revenue with a net profit margin of 4.1%. Its shares have gained 78.2% over the past year, while maintaining a forward dividend yield of 3.01%.
- Market cap
- $70.08B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $107.70B
- P/E
- 16.0x fwd 15.6x
- 1Y return
- 78.2% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $163.35 5.9% vs last close
Bull case
- In the latest quarter ending July 31, 2026, quarterly earnings grew 100.5% year-over-year alongside a 5.3% increase in quarterly revenue.
- The stock's trailing P/E of 16.0x and EV-to-EBITDA of 9.2x sit below the median of its S&P 500 Consumer Defensive peers at 23.5x and 14.8x, respectively.
- Target returned $2.05B in dividends to shareholders in FY2026 and carries a 44-year streak of consecutive dividend payments with a 3.01% yield.
Bear case
- Annual revenue fell for three consecutive fiscal years, declining from $109.12B in FY2023 to $104.78B in FY2026.
- Total debt reached $18.70B against cash and short-term investments of $5.41B as of July 31, 2026, leaving a current ratio of 0.99.
- For the next fiscal year, 36 analysts project EPS to decline by 6.8% to $9.55.
What Target does
Target Corporation functions as a general merchandise retailer across the United States. The company offers a wide-ranging assortment of products, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy, and frozen food items, alongside apparel, accessories, home decor, electronics, toys, seasonal goods, beauty, and household necessities. Target enhances in-store shopping with amenities such as Target Cafe, Target Optical, and Starbucks, along with other food service options. Established in 1902 and based in Minneapolis, Minnesota, the company integrates its physical store network with its digital platform, Target.com, through an omnichannel strategy.
Growth and profitability
Target's annual revenue reached $106.00B in FY2022 before rising 2.9% to $109.12B in FY2023. Revenue subsequently fell 1.6% to $107.41B in FY2024, 0.8% to $106.57B in FY2025, and 1.7% to $104.78B in FY2026, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 2.3% from FY2021 to FY2026. Annual net income decreased from $6.95B in FY2022 to $3.71B in FY2026, with net margin moving from 6.6% down to 3.5%. However, in the latest quarter ending July 31, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 5.3% year-over-year and quarterly earnings grew 100.5% year-over-year, bringing trailing twelve-month revenue to $107.70B with an operating margin of 6.0% and diluted EPS of $9.63.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of July 31, 2026, Target held $5.41B in cash and short-term investments against $18.70B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $13.29B. Shareholders' equity stood at $17.84B, supporting a current ratio of 0.99 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.05. In FY2026, the company generated $6.56B in operating cash flow and $2.83B in free cash flow. Capital expenditures were $3.73B, while capital returned to shareholders included $408.0M in share buybacks and $2.05B in dividends paid.
Valuation and performance
Target trades at a trailing P/E of 16.0x and a forward P/E of 15.6x, compared to the median of its S&P 500 Consumer Defensive peers of 23.5x trailing and 15.2x forward. Its enterprise value stands at $85.52B, with an EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 9.2x, below the peer median of 14.8x. The price-to-sales ratio is 0.7x, compared to the peer median of 1.8x. Over the past year, Target shares gained 78.2%, outperforming the 16.8% return of the S&P 500 (SPY). Over a five-year period, the stock fell 26.6%, while SPY gained 83.0%.
TGT dividend
Target offers an annualized forward dividend of $4.64 per share, translating to a dividend yield of 3.01% with a payout ratio of 54.8%. The company pays quarterly dividends and has maintained 44 consecutive years of dividend payments. Target achieved an annualized five-year dividend growth rate of 11.0%, with its last ex-dividend date recorded on November 10, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage consists of 11 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 21 Hold, and 4 Sell ratings. The mean price target of $163.35 indicates potential upside of 5.9% over the October 16, 2026 closing price of $154.26. For the current fiscal year ending January 31, 2027, consensus estimates project EPS of $10.24, an increase of 35.3%, on revenue of $110.19B. Target has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings report is scheduled for November 18, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- The company carries $13.29B in net debt with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.05 as of July 31, 2026.
- Target's operating margin of 4.9% in FY2026 remains below the S&P 500 Consumer Defensive peer median operating margin of 16.9%.
- Over a five-year horizon, Target shares fell 26.6% compared to an 83.0% gain for the S&P 500 (SPY).
- Free cash flow decreased from $4.48B in FY2025 to $2.83B in FY2026 as annual net income fell to $3.71B.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this TGT AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Target Corporation (TGT). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: TGT income statement, TGT balance sheet, TGT key metrics, TGT analyst forecast, TGT chart. See the TGT stock overview for the latest quote and news.
TGT AI stock analysis FAQ
Does Target pay a dividend?
Target pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward payout of $4.64 per share, offering a dividend yield of 3.01%. The company has paid dividends for 44 consecutive years with a payout ratio of 54.8%.
When does Target report its next earnings?
Target is scheduled to report its next earnings on November 18, 2026. The company beat EPS consensus estimates in each of the last 4 quarters.
How much debt does Target have?
As of July 31, 2026, Target reported $18.70B in total debt and $5.41B in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $13.29B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.05.
What are analysts' expectations for Target's stock price and earnings?
Analysts have a mean price target of $163.35, representing a 5.9% premium over the closing price of $154.26 on October 16, 2026. Current fiscal year EPS is estimated at $10.24, reflecting projected growth of 35.3%.