Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) AI Stock Analysis
COST AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchCostco Wholesale Corporation (COST) operates an international network of membership warehouses and digital commerce channels. In FY2026, the company generated $303.15B in revenue and $9.23B in net income, completing a five-year revenue CAGR of 9.1%. Costco maintains a robust balance sheet with $12.72B in net cash and delivered $9.39B in free cash flow during FY2026.
- Market cap
- $438.30B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $303.15B
- P/E
- 47.6x fwd 40.3x
- 1Y return
- 7.5% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $1066.06 7.8% vs last close
Bull case
- Revenue accelerated by 10.1% in FY2026 to $303.15B, aided by 11.1% quarterly revenue growth in the period ended August 31, 2026.
- Costco closed FY2026 with $12.72B in net cash and generated $9.39B in annual free cash flow.
- Return on equity reached 28.4% TTM, demonstrating elevated profitability relative to shareholders' equity.
Bear case
- Costco trades at a forward P/E of 40.3x, exceeding the median of its Nasdaq-100 Consumer Defensive peers of 18.2x.
- The stock posted a 1-year return of 7.5%, lagging the S&P 500 return of 16.8% over the same interval.
- Costco's PEG ratio stands at 4.43, indicating a high valuation multiple relative to projected earnings growth.
What Costco does
Costco Wholesale Corporation operates a global network of membership warehouses across the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Japan, Korea, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland, China, and Taiwan. The company offers branded and private-label merchandise spanning groceries, sundries, electronics, apparel, and furniture to both individual and commercial members. In addition to retail warehouse operations, Costco provides ancillary services including pharmacies, optical services, food courts, hearing aid centers, tire installation, and gas stations. It also operates e-commerce platforms that provide online business delivery, travel services, and same-day grocery delivery. As of August 2022, Costco operated 838 membership warehouses globally.
Growth and profitability
Costco expanded revenue from $226.95B in FY2022 to $303.15B in FY2026, delivering a five-year revenue CAGR of 9.1%. Annual revenue growth was 15.8% in FY2022, 6.8% in FY2023, 5.0% in FY2024, 8.2% in FY2025, and 10.1% in FY2026. Net income rose from $5.84B in FY2022 to $9.23B in FY2026, lifting diluted EPS from $13.14 to $20.61. Operating margin increased from 3.4% in FY2022 to 3.9% in FY2026, alongside a gross margin expansion from 12.1% to 12.8%. For the latest quarter ending August 31, 2026, quarterly revenue increased 11.1% year-over-year, and quarterly earnings grew 15.0% year-over-year.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of August 31, 2026, Costco held $21.30B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $8.58B, providing $12.72B in net cash. Shareholders' equity stood at $35.80B on total assets of $89.05B, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.24 and a current ratio of 1.06. In FY2026, the company generated $15.82B in operating cash flow and $9.39B in free cash flow. Cash deployment in FY2026 included $6.43B in capital expenditures, $2.46B in dividends paid, and $848.0M used for share buybacks.
Valuation and performance
Costco trades at a trailing P/E of 47.6x and a forward P/E of 40.3x, representing a premium to the median of its Nasdaq-100 Consumer Defensive peers of 29.2x and 18.2x, respectively. The company's EV to EBITDA multiple is 26.9x, compared to the peer median of 16.2x, while its price-to-sales multiple is 1.4x versus 2.2x for peers. Over the past 12 months, Costco gained 7.5%, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over a five-year period, however, Costco returned 130.7%, outpacing the S&P 500 return of 83.0%.
COST dividend
Costco pays an annual forward dividend of $5.88, reflecting a dividend yield of 0.59% as of October 16, 2026. The company has paid dividends for 23 consecutive years with a payout ratio of 27.7%. Its annualized 5-year dividend growth rate was -16.9%, and its last ex-dividend date is October 30, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analysts hold 20 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 13 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell recommendations on Costco. The mean price target is $1066.06, which sits 7.8% above the last close of $989.11. For the fiscal year ending August 31, 2027, consensus estimates project EPS of $22.80 on revenue of $329.41B. Costco exceeded EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is December 10, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Operating margin was 3.8% TTM, leaving minimal cushion against potential input cost inflation or retail pricing pressures.
- An EV to EBITDA multiple of 26.9x exposes the stock to multiple compression if growth rates moderate.
- The 5-year annualized dividend growth was -16.9%, accompanied by a modest dividend yield of 0.59%.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this COST AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: COST income statement, COST balance sheet, COST key metrics, COST analyst forecast, COST chart. See the COST stock overview for the latest quote and news.
COST AI stock analysis FAQ
What is Costco's dividend yield and payment history?
Costco offers an annual forward dividend of $5.88, which equates to a 0.59% yield as of October 16, 2026. The company has maintained dividend payments for 23 consecutive years and has a payout ratio of 27.7%.
How does Costco's valuation compare to other Consumer Defensive companies?
Costco's trailing P/E of 47.6x and forward P/E of 40.3x trade above the median of its Nasdaq-100 Consumer Defensive peers of 29.2x and 18.2x. Its EV to EBITDA ratio of 26.9x also trades at a premium to the peer median of 16.2x.
What is Costco's cash and debt position?
As of August 31, 2026, Costco held $21.30B in cash and short-term investments alongside total debt of $8.58B, resulting in a net cash balance of $12.72B.
What are analysts forecasting for Costco's next earnings report?
Costco's next earnings date is December 10, 2026. For the full fiscal year ending August 31, 2027, consensus estimates project EPS of $22.80 on revenue of $329.41B.