Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: TCBIAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

TCBI AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI) is a Dallas-based bank holding company operating Texas Capital Bank. In FY2025, revenue reached $2.00B with net income of $330.2M, rebounding from FY2024. The bank holds $8.26B in cash and short-term investments with a net cash position of $7.41B as of June 30, 2026.

Market cap
$3.96B
Revenue (TTM)
$1.27B
P/E
12.0x
fwd 11.1x
1Y return
18.7%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$105.08
15.3% vs last close

Bull case

  • In FY2025, net income rebounded sharply to $330.2M from $77.5M in FY2024, driving EPS up to $6.81.
  • The company maintains substantial liquidity with $8.26B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $850.9M as of June 30, 2026.
  • The bank has beaten earnings expectations in 4 of the last 4 quarters while quarterly earnings grew 15.8% year-over-year in the latest quarter.

Bear case

  • Over a 5-year period, TCBI's return of 52.0% trailed the S&P 500 return of 83.0%.
  • Operating margin experienced sharp volatility in recent years, falling from 34.7% in FY2022 to 6.1% in FY2024 before recovering to 22.2% in FY2025.
  • Short interest remains elevated with short percent of float recorded at 14.1%.

What Texas Capital Bancshares does

Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. serves as the bank holding company for Texas Capital Bank, providing comprehensive financial services headquartered in Dallas, Texas. Established in 1996, the company delivers commercial banking solutions such as commercial checking accounts, lockbox services, and cash concentration accounts. It also offers consumer checking, savings, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit. Its lending services span commercial loans for working capital and acquisitions, consumer loans, mortgages, small business administration loans, and equipment financing. In addition, the bank provides specialized financing for commercial real estate, exploration and production companies, residential homebuilders, and wealth management services.

Growth and profitability

Texas Capital Bancshares generated $2.00B in revenue for FY2025, representing revenue growth of 13.5% after a 1.7% contraction in FY2024 to $1.76B. Net income expanded to $330.2M in FY2025 with a net margin of 16.5% and EPS of $6.81, up from $77.5M and EPS of $1.27 in FY2024. Over the five years from FY2020 to FY2025, revenue achieved a CAGR of 11.2%. For the trailing twelve months, revenue was $1.27B with a profit margin of 28.7% and an operating margin of 36.7%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue growth was 8.6% year-over-year while quarterly earnings growth reached 15.8%.

TCBI income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, the company held $8.26B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $850.9M, resulting in net cash of $7.41B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.23. Total assets stood at $33.91B and shareholders' equity was $3.65B, alongside a current ratio of 26.12. In FY2025, operating cash flow was $360.2M and free cash flow reached $347.6M. Capital allocation in FY2025 included capital expenditures of $12.6M, share buybacks of $185.8M, and dividends paid of $17.2M, contributing to a share count change of -11.3% over 5 years.

TCBI balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

TCBI trades at a trailing P/E of 12.0x, in line with the 12.1x median of its US-listed Financial Services peers. Its forward P/E of 11.1x sits slightly above the peer median of 10.8x, while its price-to-sales multiple is 3.1x compared to the peer median of 3.2x. The bank has a price-to-book ratio of 1.2x and a PEG ratio of 1.47. Over the past year, the stock returned 18.7%, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year period, TCBI gained 52.0% versus 83.0% for the S&P 500.

TCBI key metrics →

TCBI dividend

TCBI offers an annual forward dividend of $0.80, representing a dividend yield of 0.88% based on the last close of $91.15. Dividends are distributed on a Quarterly frequency, with the last ex-dividend date recorded on September 1, 2026. The company maintains a payout ratio of 5.2% and paid $17.2M in dividends during FY2025.

What analysts expect

Among analysts tracked, recommendations include 2 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell, and 0 Strong Sell ratings. For next fiscal year, 12 analysts follow the company. The mean price target is $105.08, which is 15.3% above the last close of $91.15. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $7.45 on revenue of $1.34B. Texas Capital posted 4 EPS beats over the last 4 quarters, with the next earnings date set for October 28, 2026.

TCBI forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • The stock trades 7.3% below its 200-day moving average and remains below its 52-week high of $108.92.
  • Gross margin declined from 92.1% in FY2021 to 60.6% in FY2025, demonstrating ongoing structural margin compression.
  • Analyst revenue estimates project $1.34B for the current fiscal year, which is lower than the $2.00B reported in FY2025.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this TCBI AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: TCBI income statement, TCBI balance sheet, TCBI key metrics, TCBI analyst forecast, TCBI chart. See the TCBI stock overview for the latest quote and news.

TCBI AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Texas Capital Bancshares' dividend yield?

TCBI has an annual forward dividend of $0.80, yielding 0.88%. The bank has a payout ratio of 5.2% and last traded ex-dividend on September 1, 2026.

What are Wall Street analysts' price targets for TCBI?

The consensus mean price target is $105.08, representing upside of 15.3% over the last close of $91.15. Across coverage, ratings consist of 2 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 8 Hold, and 1 Sell.

When does Texas Capital Bancshares report earnings next?

The next earnings date is scheduled for October 28, 2026. Texas Capital Bancshares has delivered EPS beats in 4 of the last 4 quarters.

What is TCBI's debt and cash position?

As of June 30, 2026, the company held $8.26B in cash and short-term investments compared to total debt of $850.9M, providing net cash of $7.41B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.23.

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