Smith Micro Software, Inc. (SMSI) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: SMSIAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

SMSI AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Smith Micro Software, Inc. develops software solutions such as SafePath and CommSuite for wireless and cable service providers. The company experienced a revenue decline from $58.4M in FY2021 to $17.4M in FY2025, alongside a TTM net profit margin of -92.6%. Its market capitalization stands at $13.2M, with cash and short-term investments of $2.8M as of June 30, 2026.

Market cap
$13.2M
Revenue (TTM)
$16.9M
P/E
—
fwd 5.8x
1Y return
-33.2%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$11.00
364.1% vs last close

Bull case

  • Analysts project revenue growth of 56.6% to reach $30.7M next fiscal year alongside a positive EPS estimate of $0.46.
  • The stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 0.8x, which is lower than the peer median of 2.8x.
  • Two analysts maintain Strong Buy ratings with a mean price target of $11.00, implying a 364.1% premium over the last close of $2.37.

Bear case

  • Revenue contracted at a 5-year CAGR of -19.5% from FY2020 through FY2025, falling to $17.4M.
  • The company generated negative free cash flow of -$7.3M and an operating margin of -110.8% in FY2025.
  • The stock has dropped 98.9% over the past five years while its share count expanded 282.8% over the same timeframe.

What Smith Micro Software does

Smith Micro Software, Inc. is a global provider of software solutions designed to enhance mobile experiences for wireless and cable service providers. Founded in 1982 and based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the company creates products for connected devices and digital lifestyles. Its flagship offerings include the SafePath Family, SafePath IoT, and SafePath Home suites, which provide tools to monitor and protect connected devices. Additionally, the company offers CommSuite, an advanced messaging platform supporting multi-language Voice-to-Text transcription, and ViewSpot, a retail display management platform for interactive demonstrations.

Growth and profitability

Revenue decreased from $58.4M in FY2021 to $48.5M in FY2022, $40.9M in FY2023, $20.6M in FY2024, and $17.4M in FY2025, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of -19.5%. Operating margin declined from -53.0% in FY2021 to -110.8% in FY2025, while net losses were -$31.0M in FY2021 and -$30.1M in FY2025, reaching a low of -$48.7M in FY2024. For the trailing twelve months, revenue was $16.9M with a profit margin of -92.6% and an operating margin of -54.6%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue fell 1.8% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings declined 84.0%.

SMSI income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Smith Micro Software held $2.8M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $4.5M, resulting in net debt of $1.7M. The company reported a current ratio of 1.45, total assets of $25.9M, and shareholders' equity of $17.3M, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26. For FY2025, operating cash flow was -$7.2M and free cash flow was -$7.3M. Cash deployment during FY2025 included capital expenditures of $88,000 and dividends paid of $769,000, while the share count increased 282.8% over five years.

SMSI balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Smith Micro Software trades at a forward P/E of 5.8x, compared to 18.8x for the median of its US-listed Technology peers. Its price-to-sales ratio is 0.8x, below the peer median of 2.8x, while its EV/EBITDA multiple of 45.6x is above the peer median of 16.6x. The company's enterprise value is $16.6M against a market capitalization of $13.2M. Over the past year, the stock fell 33.2%, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over five years, the stock dropped 98.9%, compared to an 83.0% gain for SPY.

SMSI key metrics →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 2 Strong Buy ratings and 0 Buy, Hold, Sell, or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target of $11.00 represents a 364.1% upside from the last close of $2.37 on October 16, 2026. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate an EPS of -$0.67 on revenue of $19.6M. For FY2027, the single analyst covering the period projects EPS of $0.46 and revenue of $30.7M. The company beat EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for November 4, 2026.

SMSI forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Cash and short-term investments of $2.8M are lower than the total debt of $4.5M as of June 30, 2026.
  • Dilution risk remains elevated given that the 5-year share count change reached 282.8% alongside ongoing cash burn.
  • Profitability has stayed negative with a trailing twelve months profit margin of -92.6% and net losses of -$30.1M in FY2025.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this SMSI AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Smith Micro Software, Inc. (SMSI). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: SMSI income statement, SMSI balance sheet, SMSI key metrics, SMSI analyst forecast, SMSI chart. See the SMSI stock overview for the latest quote and news.

SMSI AI stock analysis FAQ

What are Smith Micro Software's main products?

The company's primary software offerings include the SafePath Family, SafePath IoT, and SafePath Home security platforms, the CommSuite messaging platform, and the ViewSpot retail display management platform.

How has Smith Micro Software performed financially in recent years?

Annual revenue decreased from $58.4M in FY2021 to $17.4M in FY2025, reflecting a 5-year CAGR of -19.5%. Net income remained negative over this period, standing at -$30.1M in FY2025.

What are analysts expecting for SMSI's upcoming earnings?

Analysts forecast an EPS of -$0.67 and revenue of $19.6M for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. The company's next earnings date is November 4, 2026.

How does SMSI's valuation compare to its industry peers?

SMSI trades at a price-to-sales multiple of 0.8x compared to 2.8x for the median of its US-listed Technology peers. Its forward P/E stands at 5.8x compared to the peer median of 18.8x, while its EV/EBITDA is 45.6x against a peer median of 16.6x.

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