Shopify Inc. (SHOP) AI Stock Analysis
SHOP AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchShopify Inc. (SHOP) operates a global commerce platform supporting merchants across digital and physical sales channels. Revenue expanded 30.1% in FY2025 to reach $11.56B, alongside free cash flow of $2.01B. The company closed at $169.52 with net cash of $4.77B on its balance sheet.
- Market cap
- $219.98B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $13.27B
- P/E
- 114.5x fwd 58.8x
- 1Y return
- 8.3% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $175.71 3.7% vs last close
Bull case
- Revenue growth accelerated to 33.7% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, supported by quarterly earnings growth of 68.1%.
- The company generated $2.01B in free cash flow in FY2025, supported by $2.03B in operating cash flow.
- Shopify maintains a solid balance sheet with $4.77B in net cash and a current ratio of 5.35 as of June 30, 2026.
Bear case
- Shopify trades at an elevated valuation with a trailing P/E of 114.5x and forward P/E of 58.8x compared to the median of its Nasdaq-100 Technology peers at 42.1x and 25.1x.
- Gross margin declined from 53.8% in FY2021 to 48.1% in FY2025.
- Shopify stock returned 19.0% over 5 years, trailing the SPY return of 83.0% over the same timeframe.
What Shopify does
Shopify Inc., headquartered in Ottawa, Canada, operates a global commerce platform across Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Its platform empowers merchants to display, manage, market, and sell products across web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, pop-up shops, social media platforms, native mobile apps, buy buttons, and marketplaces. Core offerings include tools for managing products, inventory, orders, payments, fulfillment, shipping, and customer relationships. Shopify also provides product sourcing, analytics, reporting, cash flow management, financing options, customizable themes and apps, domain registration, and merchant working capital solutions.
Growth and profitability
Shopify generated revenue of $4.61B in FY2021, which grew 21.4% to $5.60B in FY2022, 26.1% to $7.06B in FY2023, 25.8% to $8.88B in FY2024, and 30.1% to $11.56B in FY2025, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 31.6%. Operating margin shifted from 5.8% in FY2021 to -14.7% in FY2022 and -20.1% in FY2023, before recovering to 12.1% in FY2024 and 12.7% in FY2025. Gross margin was 48.1% in FY2025, compared to 53.8% in FY2021. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue growth YoY reached 33.7% and quarterly earnings growth YoY reached 68.1%, with TTM revenue totaling $13.27B.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Shopify held $4.95B in cash and short-term investments and $178.0M in total debt, yielding net cash of $4.77B. Shareholders' equity was $12.68B against total assets of $14.47B. The company maintained a current ratio of 5.35 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01. Operating cash flow reached $2.03B and free cash flow was $2.01B in FY2025, while capital expenditures were $26.0M. Over 5 years, share count change was 3.2%.
Valuation and performance
At a last close of $169.52, Shopify has a market cap of $219.98B and an enterprise value of $178.37B. Its trailing P/E of 114.5x, forward P/E of 58.8x, and EV/EBITDA of 74.6x trade at a premium to the median of its Nasdaq-100 Technology peers, which post 42.1x, 25.1x, and 30.6x, respectively. The price-to-sales ratio is 16.6x versus the peer median of 11.9x. Over 1 year, Shopify returned 8.3% compared to 16.8% for SPY, while its 5-year return of 19.0% lagged the SPY return of 83.0%.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analysts maintain 31 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 11 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell ratings on Shopify. The mean price target is $175.71, representing 3.7% upside relative to the last close of $169.52. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $1.91 on revenue of $15.25B. For the next fiscal year, 40 analysts project revenue of $19.21B with EPS of $2.46. Shopify beat EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with its next earnings date scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- High market volatility is signaled by a beta of 2.62, which could exacerbate price swings.
- Shopify's trailing operating margin of 17.6% sits below the peer median of 31.0%.
- Earnings execution has been inconsistent, with the company beating EPS estimates in only 2 of the last 4 quarters.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this SHOP AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Shopify Inc. (SHOP). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: SHOP income statement, SHOP balance sheet, SHOP key metrics, SHOP analyst forecast, SHOP chart. See the SHOP stock overview for the latest quote and news.
SHOP AI stock analysis FAQ
Does Shopify pay a dividend?
No, Shopify does not currently pay a dividend. The company generated free cash flow of $2.01B in FY2025 while retaining capital on its balance sheet.
What is Shopify's net cash position?
As of June 30, 2026, Shopify held $4.95B in cash and short-term investments alongside total debt of $178.0M, resulting in net cash of $4.77B.
How fast is Shopify growing revenue?
Shopify grew revenue by 30.1% to $11.56B in FY2025, with a 5-year revenue CAGR of 31.6%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue growth YoY was 33.7%.
What are analysts' expectations for Shopify's upcoming earnings?
Analysts forecast current fiscal year revenue of $15.25B and EPS of $1.91 for the period ending December 31, 2026. The company's next earnings date is scheduled for November 3, 2026.