Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: SFNCAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

SFNC AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) is a regional bank holding company offering consumer, commercial, and wealth management services across several states. In FY2025, revenue dropped 56.7% to $626.8M with a net loss of $397.6M, though trailing twelve month results rebounded to $930.8M in revenue. The company maintains a net cash position of $1.74B and yields 3.90% in annual dividends.

Market cap
$3.19B
Revenue (TTM)
$930.8M
P/E
—
fwd 9.5x
1Y return
27.6%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$26.07
18.1% vs last close

Bull case

  • Trailing twelve month revenue rebounded to $930.8M, supported by 14.3% year-over-year revenue growth in the quarter ended September 30, 2026.
  • The balance sheet maintains $3.51B in cash and short-term investments, resulting in a net cash position of $1.74B.
  • Simmons First has sustained 42 consecutive years of dividend payments, currently yielding 3.90% with a modest 34.2% payout ratio.

Bear case

  • Revenue dropped 56.7% in FY2025 to $626.8M, causing an operating margin of -84.2% and a net loss of $397.6M.
  • The bank's five-year revenue CAGR is negative at -8.6% from FY2020 to FY2025.
  • SFNC shares declined 11.5% over the past five years, significantly lagging the S&P 500 return of 83.0%.

What Simmons First National does

Simmons First National Corporation serves as the parent company of Simmons Bank, offering a comprehensive range of financial services to individual and business clients. Established in 1903 and headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, it provides checking, savings, and time deposits alongside consumer loans, real estate financing, and commercial loans. The company also delivers specialized services including agricultural finance, equipment loans, and Small Business Administration (SBA) lending. Its wealth management division provides trust, fiduciary, investment management, insurance, and securities services. As of January 2022, Simmons First operates through 199 financial centers across Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.

Growth and profitability

Revenue rose from $847.9M in FY2021 to $1.45B in FY2024 before dropping 56.7% to $626.8M in FY2025. Over the five-year period from FY2020 to FY2025, revenue posted a compound annual growth rate of -8.6%. Operating margin declined from 39.2% in FY2021 to -84.2% in FY2025, resulting in a FY2025 net loss of $397.6M. However, performance recovered over the trailing twelve months, generating $930.8M in revenue, an operating margin of 25.8%, and a profit margin of 28.0%. For the latest quarter ending September 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 14.3% year-over-year while quarterly earnings expanded 7.0%.

SFNC income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of September 30, 2026, Simmons First held $3.51B in cash and short-term investments against $1.77B in total debt, creating a net cash balance of $1.74B. Shareholders' equity was $3.35B within $24.07B of total assets. The bank reported a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53 and a current ratio of 0.19. During FY2025, operating cash flow stood at $461.2M and free cash flow reached $423.0M. Capital deployment in FY2025 included $38.1M for capital expenditures and $115.0M paid out in dividends, while share count grew 26.4% over five years.

SFNC balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Simmons First trades at a forward P/E of 9.5x, below the 10.8x median of its US-listed Financial Services peers. Its price-to-sales ratio of 3.4x sits slightly above the peer median of 3.2x, while price-to-book stands at 1.0x. Over the past year, SFNC delivered a return of 27.6%, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) gain of 16.8%. Over a five-year horizon, the stock fell 11.5%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 83.0%. The shares trade 4.1% above their 200-day moving average.

SFNC key metrics →

SFNC dividend

Simmons First has paid dividends for 42 consecutive years. The forward annual dividend is $0.86 per share, providing a 3.90% dividend yield with a payout ratio of 34.2%. Over the past five years, the dividend grew at an annualized rate of 4.6%. The company distributes dividends quarterly, with its last ex-dividend date on September 15, 2026.

SFNC dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 2 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 1 Hold, and 1 Strong Sell recommendation. The mean price target is $26.07, representing an 18.1% upside compared to the last close of $22.07. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $2.08 on revenue of $1.00B. For the next fiscal year, 7 analysts project EPS to grow 11.9% to $2.32 alongside 3.9% revenue growth to $1.04B. The company beat EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters.

SFNC forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • The company posted trailing twelve month EPS of -$2.40 despite recent quarterly earnings improvements.
  • The current ratio sits at 0.19 as of September 30, 2026, reflecting potential short-term liquidity constraints.
  • Earnings consistency remains mixed, with the bank beating EPS estimates in only 2 of the last 4 quarters.
  • Total share count expanded 26.4% over five years, diluting existing shareholders.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this SFNC AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: SFNC income statement, SFNC balance sheet, SFNC key metrics, SFNC analyst forecast, SFNC chart. See the SFNC stock overview for the latest quote and news.

SFNC AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Simmons First National Corporation's dividend yield and track record?

Simmons First pays an annual forward dividend of $0.86 per share, representing a 3.90% yield. The bank has paid continuous dividends for 42 years and has grown the payout at an annualized rate of 4.6% over the last five years.

What are analysts forecasting for SFNC in FY2026?

For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $2.08, representing 20.1% growth, on total revenue of $1.00B.

How does SFNC's valuation compare to its peers?

SFNC trades at a forward P/E of 9.5x, lower than the US-listed Financial Services peer median of 10.8x. However, its price-to-sales multiple of 3.4x is slightly above the peer median of 3.2x.

What is the financial position of Simmons First's balance sheet?

As of September 30, 2026, the company held $3.51B in cash and short-term investments against $1.77B in debt, giving it a net cash surplus of $1.74B and total assets of $24.07B.

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