RLI Corp. (RLI) AI Stock Analysis
RLI AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchRLI Corp. (RLI) is a specialty property and casualty insurance holding company underwriting casualty, property, and surety products. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, the company generated $1.97B in revenue with a 22.2% net profit margin and a 25.2% return on equity. With 43 consecutive years of dividend payments, RLI trades at a forward P/E of 20.5x following a 15.2% year-over-year quarterly revenue expansion.
- Market cap
- $5.60B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.97B
- P/E
- 12.8x fwd 20.5x
- 1Y return
- 4.4% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $56.25 -7.9% vs last close
Bull case
- RLI demonstrated strong underwriting performance in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, with quarterly revenue rising 15.2% and quarterly earnings surging 35.8% year-over-year.
- The company delivered robust cash generation in FY2025, generating $608.7M in free cash flow and maintaining a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17.
- RLI offers a proven history of shareholder returns, highlighted by 43 consecutive years of dividend payments and a modest 19.8% payout ratio.
Bear case
- Analysts project earnings headwinds ahead, anticipating EPS to decline 17.1% to $2.88 in FY2026 and another 6.6% to $2.69 in FY2027.
- The stock trades at a forward P/E of 20.5x, representing a significant premium to the 10.8x median of its US-listed Financial Services peers.
- Wall Street sentiment is cautious, with the mean price target of $56.25 implying a 7.9% downside from the recent close of $61.07.
What RLI does
RLI Corp. is an insurance holding company that underwrites property and casualty insurance in the United States and internationally. It operates through three main divisions: Casualty, Property, and Surety. Casualty provides commercial general liability, environmental liability, professional liability for design and technical professionals, commercial automobile coverage, and management liability. Property offers commercial property policies, cargo, hull, marine liability, inland marine, homeowners', and dwelling fire coverage. The Surety segment delivers commercial surety bonds for businesses and contractors. Founded in 1965 and based in Peoria, Illinois, RLI distributes its products via branch offices, brokers, carrier partners, and independent agents.
Growth and profitability
RLI increased revenue from $1.18B in FY2021 to $1.88B in FY2025, representing a 5-year revenue CAGR of 13.8%. Annual revenue grew 43.5% in FY2022 before contracting 11.0% in FY2023, then rebounding 17.1% in FY2024 and 6.3% in FY2025. Net income expanded from $279.4M in FY2021 to $403.3M in FY2025, with EPS advancing from $1.95 to $3.53 over the same timeframe. Operating margin stood at 27.5% in FY2025 and gross margin reached 29.8%. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 15.2% year-over-year while quarterly earnings rose 35.8% year-over-year, bringing trailing twelve-month revenue to $1.97B.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, RLI held $238.2M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $297.0M, resulting in net debt of $58.7M. Shareholders' equity totaled $1.75B alongside total assets of $6.41B, supporting a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17 and a current ratio of 0.48. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $614.2M and free cash flow was $608.7M. The company directed capital toward $5.5M in capital expenditures and returned $241.6M in dividends to shareholders.
Valuation and performance
RLI trades at a market capitalization of $5.60B and an enterprise value of $5.48B. Its forward P/E ratio of 20.5x sits well above the 10.8x median of its US-listed Financial Services peers, while its trailing P/E of 12.8x slightly exceeds the peer median of 12.1x. Its price-to-sales multiple of 2.8x compares to the peer median of 3.2x. Over the past year, RLI returned 4.4%, lagging the 16.8% return of the S&P 500 (SPY). Over five years, RLI gained 33.0% compared to 83.0% for the benchmark.
RLI dividend
RLI pays a quarterly dividend totaling an annualized $0.72 per share, offering a dividend yield of 1.18%. The company holds a low payout ratio of 19.8% and has maintained consecutive dividend payments for 43 years. Over the last five years, its annualized dividend growth was 5.8%. Its most recent ex-dividend date was August 31, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage consists of 0 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell, and 2 Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target of $56.25 reflects a -7.9% difference from the last close of $61.07. For FY2026, analysts estimate revenue of $1.94B and EPS of $2.88, representing a projected 17.1% EPS decline. For FY2027, seven analysts project revenue of $1.94B and EPS of $2.69. RLI beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for October 19, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- RLI shares carry an elevated short interest of 10.9% of float, indicating substantial market skepticism.
- Liquidity metrics reflect a low current ratio of 0.48 as of June 30, 2026, which requires disciplined working capital oversight.
- The company's five-year stock return of 33.0% substantially trailed the 83.0% return of the S&P 500 benchmark.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this RLI AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of RLI Corp. (RLI). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: RLI income statement, RLI balance sheet, RLI key metrics, RLI analyst forecast, RLI chart. See the RLI stock overview for the latest quote and news.
RLI AI stock analysis FAQ
What is RLI's current dividend yield and payout history?
RLI pays an annualized dividend of $0.72 per share, representing a 1.18% dividend yield. It has paid dividends for 43 consecutive years with a conservative payout ratio of 19.8%.
How has RLI performed compared to the broader market?
Over the past year, RLI gained 4.4% compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500 (SPY). Over a five-year horizon, the stock appreciated 33.0%, while the S&P 500 rose 83.0%.
What are analysts expecting for RLI's earnings?
Consensus estimates forecast FY2026 EPS of $2.88, which represents a 17.1% decrease from FY2025. For FY2027, analysts project EPS to decline further to $2.69 on flat revenue of $1.94B.
What is RLI's valuation relative to its industry peers?
RLI trades at a forward P/E of 20.5x, above the 10.8x median of its US-listed Financial Services peers. However, its price-to-sales multiple of 2.8x sits below the peer median of 3.2x.