The Progressive Corporation (PGR) AI Stock Analysis

The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company based in Mayfield, Ohio, providing personal and commercial property-casualty insurance products across the United States. It operates through three main segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes personal auto insurance alongside coverage for recreational vehicles, motorcycles, ATVs, watercrafts, and snowmobiles. Commercial Lines offers primary liability, physical damage, and property insurance to small businesses and commercial vehicle fleets. The Property segment provides residential property insurance for homeowners, property owners, and renters, as well as personal umbrella and flood coverage. The company also offers policy issuance and claims adjustment services.

Progressive increased its revenue at a 5-year CAGR of 15.5% from FY2020 through FY2025. In FY2025, revenue reached $87.64B, up 16.3% year over year, while net income rose to $11.31B from $8.48B in FY2024. Operating margin widened to 16.2% in FY2025, up from 14.2% in FY2024 and 1.9% in FY2022. Free cash flow reached $17.20B in FY2025 compared to $14.83B in FY2024. For the latest quarter ended September 30, 2026, quarterly revenue growth was 3.0% year over year, while quarterly earnings declined 2.1%. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue totaled $91.70B with a profit margin of 12.7% and diluted EPS of $19.85.

As of September 30, 2026, Progressive held $2.12B in cash and short-term investments against $8.39B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $6.26B. Total assets stood at $127.74B and shareholders' equity was $34.48B, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.24 and a current ratio of 0.23. In FY2025, the company generated $17.55B in operating cash flow. Capital allocation that year included capital expenditures of $348.0M, share buybacks of $166.0M, and dividends paid of $2.87B.

PGR trades at a trailing P/E of 11.0x, below the 14.2x median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers. Its forward P/E of 12.7x compares to a peer median of 12.2x, while its price-to-sales of 1.4x sits below the peer median of 3.1x. Progressive's EV to EBITDA is 21.9x against the peer median of 15.1x. Over the past year, the stock returned 4.9%, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year period, PGR returned 167.5% compared to 83.0% for SPY.

Progressive pays a quarterly dividend with a forward annual dividend of $0.40, representing a dividend yield of 0.18%. The company has paid dividends for 17 consecutive years and delivered a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 13.1%. Its payout ratio is 60.1%, and its last ex-dividend date was October 1, 2026.

Wall Street coverage includes 4 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 15 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target of $230.38 indicates 5.4% potential upside relative to the last close of $218.49. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $18.41 on revenue of $87.08B. For the next fiscal year, 23 analysts project EPS of $16.24 on revenue of $91.72B. Progressive beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters.

This page is an AI-written research summary of The Progressive Corporation (PGR). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: PGR income statement, PGR balance sheet, PGR key metrics, PGR analyst forecast, PGR chart. See the PGR stock overview for the latest quote and news.