Redwire Corporation (RDW) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: RDWAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

RDW AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Redwire Corporation is a space infrastructure and technology company providing mission-critical components, software, and services for civil, commercial, and national security missions. While trailing twelve month revenue reached $426.3M with quarterly revenue growth of 89.6%, profitability remains negative with a TTM profit margin of -57.3%. As of June 30, 2026, the company retains significant liquidity with $470.6M in net cash.

Market cap
$2.10B
Revenue (TTM)
$426.3M
P/E
—
1Y return
-1.9%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$14.28
70.2% vs last close

Bull case

  • Quarterly revenue increased 89.6% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, pushing trailing twelve month revenue to $426.3M.
  • The balance sheet maintains substantial liquidity with $470.6M in net cash and a current ratio of 3.92 as of June 30, 2026.
  • Wall Street analysts project significant appreciation with a mean price target of $14.28, representing a 70.2% premium to the last close of $8.39.

Bear case

  • Redwire incurred a net loss of -$226.6M in FY2025 alongside a free cash flow deficit of -$190.8M.
  • Gross margin compressed from 23.8% in FY2023 to 5.2% in FY2025, driving an annual operating margin of -68.5%.
  • The stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 4.9x, which stands significantly above the 1.5x median of its US-listed Industrials peers.

What Redwire does

Headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida, Redwire Corporation develops, manufactures, and distributes space solutions and components for national security, civil space exploration, and commercial endeavors worldwide. Its hardware offerings include advanced antennas, sensors, solar arrays, composite booms, and payload adapters that support satellite deployment, space exploration, and communications missions. The company also delivers on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing capabilities, alongside programs focused on low-earth orbit commercialization and space domain awareness. Additionally, Redwire provides a proprietary Software as a Service enterprise software suite that enables digital engineering, interactive modeling, and simulations of spacecraft components and satellite constellations.

Growth and profitability

Redwire expanded annual revenue from $137.6M in FY2021 to $335.4M in FY2025, generating a 5-year revenue CAGR of 42.3% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual top-line expansion slowed from 139.6% in FY2021 and 51.9% in FY2023 to 10.3% in FY2025. Gross margin contracted from 23.8% in FY2023 to 5.2% in FY2025, while operating margin fell to -68.5%. Net income reached -$226.6M in FY2025, resulting in an EPS of -$1.93 and free cash flow of -$190.8M. Performance rebounded in the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, with quarterly revenue growth accelerating to 89.6% year-over-year, lifting trailing twelve month revenue to $426.3M despite a TTM operating margin of -18.9% and an EPS of -$1.43.

RDW income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Redwire held $557.7M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $87.1M, resulting in a net cash position of $470.6M. Liquidity is supported by a current ratio of 3.92 and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05 on $1.63B in shareholders' equity. Operating cash flow was -$177.3M in FY2025. During FY2025, cash deployment included $13.5M in capital expenditures and $63.9M in share buybacks, while the company's share count increased 251.7% over the trailing five-year period.

RDW balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At a last close of $8.39, Redwire carries a market cap of $2.10B and an enterprise value of $2.35B. The stock trades at a price-to-sales multiple of 4.9x and an EV-to-revenue multiple of 5.5x, well above the 1.5x price-to-sales median of its US-listed Industrials peers. Its price-to-book ratio stands at 1.7x. Over the past year, Redwire fell 1.9%, trailing the 16.8% return of the S&P 500. Over five years, the stock dropped 18.1% compared to an 83.0% gain for the benchmark. Redwire trades 24.8% below its 200-day average with a beta of 3.13.

RDW key metrics →

What analysts expect

Wall Street analysts track Redwire with 6 Strong Buy, 4 Hold, and 1 Sell ratings. The mean price target of $14.28 reflects a 70.2% premium over the last close of $8.39. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates anticipate revenue of $475.3M and an EPS of -$0.45. For the following fiscal year, 4 analysts project revenue of $564.4M and an EPS of -$0.32. Over the last four quarters, the company beat EPS estimates twice. The next earnings date is November 4, 2026.

RDW forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • The stock exhibits heightened volatility with a beta of 3.13 and trades 24.8% below its 200-day moving average.
  • Short interest is elevated, with short positions accounting for 21.3% of the company's float.
  • Shareholder dilution has been substantial, with total share count rising 251.7% over the past five years.
  • Profitability remains deeply negative, evidenced by a trailing twelve month return on equity of -18.1% and a profit margin of -57.3%.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this RDW AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Redwire Corporation (RDW). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: RDW income statement, RDW balance sheet, RDW key metrics, RDW analyst forecast, RDW chart. See the RDW stock overview for the latest quote and news.

RDW AI stock analysis FAQ

Does Redwire Corporation pay a dividend?

No, Redwire Corporation does not pay a dividend. In FY2025, the company deployed capital toward $13.5M in capital expenditures and $63.9M in share buybacks.

When is Redwire's next earnings release?

Redwire is scheduled to report its next earnings on November 4, 2026. The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in two of the last four quarters.

What is Redwire's cash and debt position?

As of June 30, 2026, Redwire held $557.7M in cash and short-term investments against $87.1M in total debt. This equates to net cash of $470.6M and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05.

What are analysts forecasting for Redwire's revenue and earnings?

For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $475.3M and an EPS of -$0.45. For the next fiscal year, analysts estimate revenue of $564.4M and an EPS of -$0.32.

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