Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: NOCAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

NOC AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) is a global aerospace and defense contractor providing advanced aircraft, weapons, and mission systems. For FY2025, the company delivered revenue of $41.95B with free cash flow of $3.31B, alongside a return on equity of 27.0% over the trailing twelve months. Its stock trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5x, reflecting a discount relative to the broader industrial sector.

Market cap
$73.85B
Revenue (TTM)
$42.89B
P/E
16.5x
fwd 17.0x
1Y return
-11.8%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$619.08
19.1% vs last close

Bull case

  • Northrop Grumman generated $3.31B in free cash flow in FY2025, supporting $1.62B in share repurchases and $1.29B in dividend payments.
  • The stock trades at an EV to EBITDA of 11.7x and trailing P/E of 16.5x, at a discount to the median of its S&P 500 Industrials peers at 17.7x and 28.5x, respectively.
  • The company has maintained consecutive dividend payments for 45 years with an annualized 5-year dividend growth rate of 9.7%.

Bear case

  • The company's 5-year revenue CAGR from FY2020 to FY2025 was modest at 2.7%, while quarterly earnings fell 5.8% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • The stock fell 11.8% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 return of 16.8%.
  • Total debt stood at $16.29B against cash and short-term investments of $2.31B as of June 30, 2026, leaving net debt at $13.98B.

What Northrop Grumman does

Northrop Grumman Corporation is a global aerospace and defense company specializing in the design, development, and manufacture of advanced aircraft and defense systems. Its Aeronautics Systems segment creates sophisticated aircraft systems, including unmanned autonomous systems, strategic long-range strike aircraft, and airborne command systems. The Defense Systems segment designs and produces weapons and mission systems, such as precision strike weapons, propulsion systems, and precision munitions, alongside life cycle support across air, sea, and ground platforms. Additionally, the Mission Systems segment delivers cyber, command, control, communications, intelligence, radar, electro-optical/infrared sensors, and electronic warfare systems.

Growth and profitability

Northrop Grumman expanded revenue from $35.67B in FY2021 to $41.95B in FY2025, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 2.7%. Net income moved from $7.00B in FY2021 to $2.06B in FY2023, before recovering to $4.18B in FY2025 with an operating margin of 10.2% and EPS of $26.37. Free cash flow climbed to $3.31B in FY2025, up from $2.15B in FY2021. Over the trailing twelve months ending June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $42.89B with a profit margin of 10.5%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 5.1% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings declined 5.8%.

NOC income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Northrop Grumman held $2.31B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $16.29B, resulting in net debt of $13.98B. The company recorded shareholders' equity of $17.88B and total assets of $50.76B, with a current ratio of 1.17 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.91. During FY2025, operating cash flow reached $4.76B, which funded capital expenditures of $1.45B, share buybacks of $1.62B, and dividends paid of $1.29B. Share count decreased 11.2% over the 5-year period.

NOC balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Northrop Grumman trades at a trailing P/E of 16.5x and a forward P/E of 17.0x, below the median of its S&P 500 Industrials peers of 28.5x and 20.7x. Its enterprise value stands at $87.06B, corresponding to an EV to EBITDA ratio of 11.7x compared to the peer median of 17.7x. The company's price-to-sales multiple is 1.7x versus the peer median of 3.3x. Over the past year, the stock fell 11.8%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%, and gained 42.6% over five years compared to 83.0% for the S&P 500.

NOC key metrics →

NOC dividend

Northrop Grumman offers a forward annual dividend of $9.88 per share, representing a dividend yield of 1.90% with a payout ratio of 33.3%. The company distributes dividends quarterly and has paid dividends for 45 consecutive years. Over the past five years, the dividend grew at an annualized rate of 9.7%, with the most recent ex-dividend date occurring on August 31, 2026.

NOC dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street sentiment includes 11 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 11 Hold, 1 Sell, and 0 Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $619.08, indicating an upside of 19.1% from the October 16, 2026 closing price of $519.86. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $28.98 and revenue of $44.05B. The company beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for October 20, 2026.

NOC forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Quarterly earnings dropped 5.8% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, highlighting near-term profitability pressure.
  • Net debt of $13.98B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.91 require consistent operating cash flow generation to service obligations.
  • Revenue growth of 2.2% in FY2025 trails the peer median quarterly revenue growth of 10.3%, signaling slower expansion relative to industrial peers.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this NOC AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: NOC income statement, NOC balance sheet, NOC key metrics, NOC analyst forecast, NOC chart. See the NOC stock overview for the latest quote and news.

NOC AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Northrop Grumman's dividend yield and track record?

Northrop Grumman pays a forward annual dividend of $9.88 per share, yielding 1.90% with a payout ratio of 33.3%. It has maintained consecutive dividend payments for 45 years and achieved a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 9.7%.

What are analysts projecting for Northrop Grumman's earnings in FY2026?

Analysts estimate EPS of $28.98 on revenue of $44.05B for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, representing expected EPS growth of 10.0%. For the next fiscal year, 23 analysts project EPS of $30.37 on revenue of $46.97B.

How does Northrop Grumman's valuation compare to its peers?

Northrop Grumman trades at a trailing P/E of 16.5x and forward P/E of 17.0x, compared to the median of its S&P 500 Industrials peers of 28.5x and 20.7x, respectively. Its enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 11.7x also sits below the peer median of 17.7x.

When does Northrop Grumman report its next quarterly earnings?

Northrop Grumman is scheduled to report its next earnings on October 20, 2026, having beaten EPS estimates in all of the last 4 quarters.

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