Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) AI Stock Analysis
PAG AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchPenske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) is an international transportation services company operating automotive and commercial truck dealerships. In FY2025, the company generated $31.81B in revenue and $935.4M in net income, while trailing twelve-month revenue reached $32.20B. The stock gained 29.7% over the past year and trades at a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 14.9x.
- Market cap
- $13.95B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $32.20B
- P/E
- 14.9x fwd 14.7x
- 1Y return
- 29.7% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $210.57 -0.9% vs last close
Bull case
- The 5-year revenue CAGR reached 9.2% through FY2025, supported by 6.0% year-over-year revenue expansion in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
- PAG outperformed the S&P 500 across 1-year and 5-year periods, generating a 5-year return of 132.2% versus 83.0% for the index.
- Share repurchases reduced the company's share count by 15.7% over 5 years, supporting trailing twelve-month EPS of $14.22.
Bear case
- Total debt stood at $9.25B against $69.5M in cash as of June 30, 2026, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.59 and a current ratio of 0.98.
- Annual net income dropped from $1.38B in FY2022 to $935.4M in FY2025 as operating margins narrowed from 5.3% to 4.0%.
- Short interest accounts for 14.2% of the float, and analysts project a 0.1% decline in FY2026 EPS to $13.24.
What Penske Automotive does
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. operates a global network of automotive and commercial truck dealerships organized into Retail Automotive, Retail Commercial Truck, Other, and Non-Automotive Investments segments. The company retails new and used motor vehicles, provides vehicle and collision repair services, arranges financing and leasing, and sells third-party insurance and aftermarket solutions alongside wholesale automotive parts. Its commercial truck business operates dealerships offering Freightliner and Western Star brands alongside used truck sales and maintenance. Globally, Penske imports and distributes heavy-duty trucks, buses, refuse vehicles, and diesel and gas engines across Australia, New Zealand, and parts of the Pacific.
Growth and profitability
Penske Automotive grew revenue from $25.55B in FY2021 to $31.81B in FY2025, achieving a 5-year revenue CAGR of 9.2% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual net income peaked at $1.38B in FY2022 before dropping to $968.9M in FY2024 and $935.4M in FY2025, alongside an operating margin of 4.0% in FY2025 down from 5.3% in FY2021 and FY2022. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $32.20B with an operating margin of 4.0% and EPS of $14.22. In the latest quarter, revenue grew 6.0% year-over-year while quarterly earnings declined 1.7%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Penske Automotive held $69.5M in cash and short-term investments against $9.25B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $9.18B. Shareholders' equity was $5.83B, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.59 and a current ratio of 0.98. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $975.1M and free cash flow was $650.5M. The company directed capital toward $324.6M in capital expenditures, $343.8M in dividends paid, and $159.1M in share buybacks, lowering its share count by 15.7% over 5 years.
Valuation and performance
PAG trades at a trailing P/E of 14.9x and a forward P/E of 14.7x, compared to medians of 18.0x and 14.1x for its US-listed Consumer Cyclical peers. The stock's price-to-sales multiple is 0.4x versus 0.7x for peer group medians, while its EV/EBITDA of 13.6x exceeds the peer median of 11.1x. Penske Automotive returned 29.7% over the past year and 132.2% over five years, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) returns of 16.8% and 83.0% over the same periods.
PAG dividend
Penske Automotive offers a forward annual dividend of $5.84 per share, representing a dividend yield of 2.75% and a payout ratio of 44.9%. Dividends are paid quarterly, and the company has paid dividends for 16 consecutive years. The dividend grew at an annualized rate of 43.9% over five years, with the last ex-dividend date on November 13, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analysts cover PAG with 1 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 7 Holds, and 0 Sell ratings. The mean price target is $210.57, which sits 0.9% below the last close of $212.42. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $32.63B and EPS of $13.24, followed by $33.57B in revenue and EPS of $14.05 for FY2027. Penske beat EPS expectations in 2 of the last 4 quarters, and the next earnings date is November 4, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- A net debt position of $9.18B leaves Penske Automotive with high leverage relative to its $5.83B in shareholders' equity.
- Quarterly earnings fell 1.7% year-over-year in the period ended June 30, 2026, marking continued margin pressure relative to historical peak levels.
- Free cash flow generation decreased from $1.18B in FY2022 to $650.5M in FY2025, which may constrain future capital return programs.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this PAG AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: PAG income statement, PAG balance sheet, PAG key metrics, PAG analyst forecast, PAG chart. See the PAG stock overview for the latest quote and news.
PAG AI stock analysis FAQ
What is Penske Automotive Group's dividend yield and payout?
PAG pays an annualized forward dividend of $5.84 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.75%. The payout ratio is 44.9%, and the company has maintained consecutive dividend payments for 16 years.
How much debt does Penske Automotive carry?
As of June 30, 2026, Penske Automotive held $9.25B in total debt and $69.5M in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $9.18B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.59.
What are analysts forecasting for PAG's revenue and earnings?
For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts forecast revenue of $32.63B and EPS of $13.24. For the next fiscal year, estimates call for revenue to rise 2.9% to $33.57B with EPS increasing 3.5% to $14.05.
How has PAG stock performed relative to the benchmark index?
PAG stock returned 29.7% over the past year and 132.2% over five years, outpacing the S&P 500 (SPY) gains of 16.8% and 83.0% over the same respective periods.