Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: LADAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

LAD AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD) is a major automotive retailer with trailing twelve month revenue of $37.94B and an enterprise value of $23.27B. While top-line growth decelerated to 4.0% in FY2025 and operating margin compressed to 3.8%, the company generated $819.6M in net income. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 7.9x, supported by an aggressive share repurchase program.

Market cap
$6.49B
Revenue (TTM)
$37.94B
P/E
9.8x
fwd 7.9x
1Y return
-2.7%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$409.07
38.6% vs last close

Bull case

  • Lithia Motors trades at a forward P/E of 7.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.60, representing a discount to the US-listed Consumer Cyclical peer median forward P/E of 14.1x.
  • Aggressive capital return programs have lowered the company's share count by 26.0% over the past 5 years, backed by $960.9M in share repurchases in FY2025 alone.
  • Quarterly earnings growth rebounded by 16.9% year-over-year in the period ended June 30, 2026, while analysts anticipate 16.1% EPS growth in the next fiscal year.

Bear case

  • The balance sheet carries $16.56B in total debt relative to $363.9M in cash, driving a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.58.
  • Operating margins have systematically deteriorated from 7.3% in FY2021 down to 3.8% in FY2025 and 4.6% on a trailing twelve month basis.
  • Free cash flow generation compressed significantly to $5.8M in FY2025, down from $1.54B in FY2021, limiting organically funded capital allocation.

What Lithia Motors does

Lithia Motors, Inc. is an automotive retailer organized into three distinct segments: Domestic, Import, and Luxury. The company offers a wide selection of new and used vehicles alongside comprehensive automotive services, such as financing solutions, warranties, insurance contracts, and vehicle protection services. In addition, Lithia Motors provides vehicle repair and maintenance services under the Driveway and GreenCars brands. It leverages a digital network of over 300 websites to facilitate online vehicle transactions for customers across the United States. Founded in 1946 and headquartered in Medford, Oregon, the company employs approximately 30,000 people.

Growth and profitability

Lithia Motors expanded revenue from $22.83B in FY2021 to $37.63B in FY2025, producing a 5-year revenue CAGR of 23.4%. However, annual revenue growth slowed from 73.9% in FY2021 and 16.6% in FY2024 to 4.0% in FY2025. Gross margin contracted from 18.7% in FY2021 to 15.2% in FY2025, while operating margin fell from 7.3% to 3.8% over the same timeframe. Net income peaked at $1.25B in FY2022 before settling at $819.6M in FY2025 with an EPS of $34.14. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 2.2% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings grew 16.9% year-over-year.

LAD income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Lithia Motors held $363.9M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $16.56B, resulting in net debt of $16.20B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.58. Total assets were $26.25B against shareholders' equity of $6.43B, with a current ratio of 1.00. In FY2025, operating cash flow stood at $356.7M, supporting capital expenditures of $350.9M and yielding free cash flow of $5.8M. Lithia Motors allocated $960.9M to share buybacks and $55.3M to dividends in FY2025, contributing to a 5-year share count reduction of 26.0%.

LAD balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At $295.14, Lithia Motors has a market cap of $6.49B and trades at a trailing P/E of 9.8x and a forward P/E of 7.9x. These multiples sit below the median of its US-listed Consumer Cyclical peers, which record a trailing P/E of 18.0x and a forward P/E of 14.1x. Its price-to-sales ratio of 0.2x and EV/EBITDA of 10.5x also compare to peer medians of 0.7x and 11.1x, respectively. The stock has underperformed broader benchmarks, dropping 2.7% over the past year and 9.4% over five years, compared to gains of 16.8% and 83.0% for the S&P 500 (SPY).

LAD key metrics →

LAD dividend

Lithia Motors pays a forward annual dividend of $2.80 per share, representing a dividend yield of 0.95% and a payout ratio of 7.0%. The dividend is distributed quarterly and has been paid for 17 consecutive years, with a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 12.3%. The most recent ex-dividend date occurred on August 7, 2026.

LAD dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage consists of 8 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, and 5 Hold ratings, with zero Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target of $409.07 reflects a 38.6% premium over the last close of $295.14. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $38.30B and EPS of $35.71, representing 6.7% EPS growth. Lithia Motors has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings release is scheduled for October 21, 2026.

LAD forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • A heavy net debt position of $16.20B leaves the company vulnerable to interest rate movements or tightening credit conditions.
  • Short interest represents 13.8% of the float, reflecting meaningful market skepticism regarding future operational execution.
  • Annual revenue growth slowed sharply to 4.0% in FY2025, down from 16.6% in FY2024 and 73.9% in FY2021.
  • The thin net margin of 1.9% over the trailing twelve months provides limited room to absorb margin compression from rising dealership costs.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this LAD AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: LAD income statement, LAD balance sheet, LAD key metrics, LAD analyst forecast, LAD chart. See the LAD stock overview for the latest quote and news.

LAD AI stock analysis FAQ

What dividend does Lithia Motors pay?

Lithia Motors pays a forward annual dividend of $2.80 per share, which equals a 0.95% dividend yield. It maintains a low payout ratio of 7.0% and has paid dividends for 17 consecutive years.

How much debt does Lithia Motors have?

As of June 30, 2026, Lithia Motors carried total debt of $16.56B and cash and short-term investments of $363.9M, leaving net debt at $16.20B. This equates to a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.58.

What are analysts forecasting for LAD's earnings?

For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts expect EPS of $35.71 on revenue of $38.30B. For the following fiscal year, 14 analysts project EPS of $41.45 on revenue of $39.55B.

When does Lithia Motors report earnings next?

Lithia Motors is scheduled to report earnings on October 21, 2026. The company has surpassed EPS expectations in 3 of the trailing 4 quarters.

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