Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (OSBC) AI Stock Analysis
OSBC AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchOld Second Bancorp, Inc. (OSBC) is the bank holding company for Old Second National Bank, operating across community banking, lending, and wealth management. The company generated $341.4M in trailing twelve-month revenue with an operating margin of 44.7%. Shares have gained 50.9% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 benchmark return of 16.8%.
- Market cap
- $1.27B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $341.4M
- P/E
- 14.1x fwd 8.6x
- 1Y return
- 50.9% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $28.33 13.9% vs last close
Bull case
- Quarterly revenue growth reached 22.7% year-over-year in the latest quarter ending June 30, 2026, supported by 12.5% quarterly earnings growth.
- The forward P/E ratio of 8.6x is lower than the US-listed Financial Services peer median of 10.8x.
- The bank maintains an annualized 5-year dividend growth rate of 44.3% alongside a low payout ratio of 13.0%.
Bear case
- Annual net income declined from $91.7M in FY2023 to $80.3M in FY2025 as operating margins narrowed to 27.9%.
- Estimated revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026 of $335.1M represents a contraction from FY2025 revenue of $397.0M.
- The bank carries net debt of $422.0M against cash and short-term investments of $46.7M as of June 30, 2026.
What Old Second Bancorp does
Headquartered in Aurora, Illinois, Old Second Bancorp, Inc. serves as the bank holding company for Old Second National Bank, incorporated in 1981. The institution provides retail and commercial deposit accounts, including demand deposits, savings, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit. Its lending operations encompass commercial loans, lease financing receivables, and real estate loans such as commercial, construction, residential mortgages, and home equity lines of credit. Old Second Bancorp also delivers wealth management services, trust services, investment products, foreign currency exchange, and U.S. treasury securities acquisition, while exploring digital assets and cryptocurrencies.
Growth and profitability
Revenue expanded from $141.9M in FY2021 to $397.0M in FY2025, delivering a 5-year revenue CAGR of 23.3%. Net income rose from $20.0M in FY2021 to $91.7M in FY2023, before settling at $85.3M in FY2024 and $80.3M in FY2025. Operating margin was 19.6% in FY2021, reached 38.8% in FY2023, and finished at 27.9% in FY2025. Diluted EPS reached $2.06 in FY2025. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $341.4M with a net profit margin of 27.1%. In the latest quarter, quarterly revenue grew 22.7% year-over-year, and quarterly earnings grew 12.5%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Old Second Bancorp held $46.7M in cash and short-term investments alongside total debt of $468.7M, resulting in net debt of $422.0M. Total assets reached $6.85B against shareholders' equity of $902.8M, representing a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.52 and a current ratio of 0.12. In FY2025, the bank generated $122.3M in operating cash flow and $117.8M in free cash flow. Capital deployment included $4.5M for capital expenditures, $7.4M in share buybacks, and $12.2M in dividends paid.
Valuation and performance
At a market capitalization of $1.27B and a share price of $24.88, Old Second Bancorp trades at a trailing P/E of 14.1x, above the 12.1x median of its US-listed Financial Services peers. However, its forward P/E of 8.6x is below the peer median of 10.8x. The stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 3.7x and a price-to-book ratio of 1.4x. Over the past year, OSBC returned 50.9%, outpacing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%. Over five years, the stock gained 101.1% compared to 83.0% for the S&P 500.
OSBC dividend
Old Second Bancorp pays a forward annual dividend of $0.28 per share, yielding 1.13% with a payout ratio of 13.0%. The company has distributed dividends for 11 consecutive years on a quarterly schedule. Its annualized 5-year dividend growth rate stands at 44.3%, with the most recent ex-dividend date recorded on July 31, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analysts maintain 3 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, and 1 Hold ratings on OSBC, with no Sell recommendations. The mean price target is $28.33, implying 13.9% upside from the last close of $24.88. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $2.21, reflecting 7.4% growth, on revenue of $335.1M. The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters. The next earnings release is scheduled for October 21, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Operating margins contracted from 38.8% in FY2023 to 27.9% in FY2025, posing a profitability risk if funding costs rise.
- Total debt of $468.7M significantly exceeds cash reserves of $46.7M as of June 30, 2026.
- Share count increased by 50.9% over five years, creating potential equity dilution for long-term shareholders.
- Short interest sits at 5.6% of float, indicating lingering market skepticism despite a 1-year return of 50.9%.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this OSBC AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (OSBC). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: OSBC income statement, OSBC balance sheet, OSBC key metrics, OSBC analyst forecast, OSBC chart. See the OSBC stock overview for the latest quote and news.
OSBC AI stock analysis FAQ
What does Old Second Bancorp do?
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. is the bank holding company for Old Second National Bank, offering deposit products, commercial and real estate lending, and wealth management services from Aurora, Illinois.
What is OSBC's dividend yield and payout policy?
OSBC pays a forward annual dividend of $0.28 per share, representing a 1.13% yield and a conservative payout ratio of 13.0%.
How does OSBC's valuation compare to its peers?
OSBC trades at a forward P/E of 8.6x, below the US-listed Financial Services peer median of 10.8x, though its trailing P/E of 14.1x exceeds the peer median of 12.1x.
When is Old Second Bancorp's next earnings report?
Old Second Bancorp is scheduled to report its next financial results on October 21, 2026.