NVR, Inc. (NVR) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: NVRAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

NVR AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

NVR, Inc. (NVR) is a U.S. homebuilder operating under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands alongside a mortgage banking business. In FY2025, the company generated $10.32B in revenue and $1.34B in net income, while delivering a trailing twelve month return on equity of 31.5%.

Market cap
$15.78B
Revenue (TTM)
$9.63B
P/E
15.4x
fwd 14.8x
1Y return
-22.2%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$6395.33
8.0% vs last close

Bull case

  • NVR maintains a conservative capital structure with $146.6M in net cash and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.31 as of June 30, 2026.
  • The company generated strong profitability with a return on equity of 31.5% and an operating margin of 13.9% over the trailing twelve months.
  • Aggressive capital returns have reduced total share count by 23.5% over the past 5 years, supported by $1.83B in share buybacks during FY2025.

Bear case

  • In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue fell 10.9% and quarterly earnings dropped 22.6% year-over-year.
  • For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates anticipate an EPS contraction of 17.8% to $358.78.
  • NVR shares have underperformed broader markets, declining 22.2% over the trailing one-year period while the S&P 500 gained 16.8%.

What NVR does

NVR, Inc. operates in the U.S. residential construction industry through two primary segments: Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking. The company constructs and sells single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominiums across states such as Maryland, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York, and Florida. Its homebuilding brands include Ryan Homes, which serves entry-level and first-time move-up buyers, as well as NVHomes and Heartland Homes, which focus on move-up and luxury customers. In addition, NVR provides mortgage-related services, which include brokering title insurance, conducting title searches for loan closings, and selling mortgage loans to secondary market investors on a servicing released basis.

Growth and profitability

NVR achieved a 5-year revenue CAGR of 6.5% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual revenue grew from $8.96B in FY2021 to $10.54B in FY2022, before easing to $9.53B in FY2023. In FY2024, revenue climbed 10.6% to $10.54B, with gross margin at 25.5% and net income reaching $1.68B. However, FY2025 revenue declined 2.1% to $10.32B, while operating margin fell to 16.2% and net income dropped to $1.34B, producing EPS of $437.24. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $9.63B. In the latest quarter, revenue declined 10.9% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings dropped 22.6%.

NVR income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, NVR held $1.20B in cash and short-term investments against $1.05B in total debt, resulting in net cash of $146.6M. Liquidity is supported by a current ratio of 3.38 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.31, with shareholders' equity at $3.39B. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $1.12B and free cash flow was $1.10B after capital expenditures of $24.5M. NVR allocated $1.83B to share buybacks in FY2025, contributing to a 23.5% reduction in share count over 5 years.

NVR balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

NVR trades at a trailing P/E of 15.4x and a forward P/E of 14.8x, both below the median of its S&P 500 Consumer Cyclical peers at 20.1x and 15.7x, respectively. Its enterprise value to EBITDA ratio is 10.8x compared to the peer median of 13.8x, and its price-to-sales multiple is 1.6x versus 2.0x for peers. Over the past year, NVR shares fell 22.2%, lagging the 16.8% return for the S&P 500 (SPY). Over 5 years, NVR gained 19.2% compared to an 83.0% return for SPY.

NVR key metrics →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage consists of 2 Strong Buy, 3 Hold, and 2 Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $6395.33, implying an 8.0% upside from the last close of $5919.82. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $9.13B and EPS of $358.78, representing a 17.8% EPS decline. For the next fiscal year, 7 analysts project revenue growth of 4.7% to $9.56B and EPS of $392.74. The company has beaten EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for October 28, 2026.

NVR forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • A deceleration in housing demand has compressed quarterly revenue growth to -10.9% and quarterly earnings growth to -22.6%.
  • Operating margin narrowed from 20.6% in FY2022 to 16.2% in FY2025 and 13.9% over the trailing twelve months, reflecting persistent margin pressure.
  • Short interest represents 8.2% of float, indicating lingering market skepticism around the company's near-term recovery.
  • The stock remains volatile and trades 10.5% below its 200-day moving average and well off its 52-week high of $8200.00.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this NVR AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of NVR, Inc. (NVR). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: NVR income statement, NVR balance sheet, NVR key metrics, NVR analyst forecast, NVR chart. See the NVR stock overview for the latest quote and news.

NVR AI stock analysis FAQ

Does NVR pay a dividend?

NVR does not pay a regular dividend, choosing instead to return capital to shareholders through share repurchases, including $1.83B spent on buybacks in FY2025.

What are NVR's primary homebuilding brands?

NVR builds and sells residential properties under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brand names. Ryan Homes focuses on entry-level and first-time move-up buyers, whereas NVHomes and Heartland Homes target luxury and move-up customers.

How does NVR's valuation compare to its peers?

NVR trades at a trailing P/E of 15.4x and an EV/EBITDA of 10.8x, both below the S&P 500 Consumer Cyclical peer medians of 20.1x and 13.8x, respectively.

What are analysts expecting for NVR's upcoming earnings?

Analysts forecast full-year FY2026 revenue of $9.13B and EPS of $358.78, followed by a projected 9.5% EPS recovery to $392.74 in the next fiscal year. The company's next earnings report is scheduled for October 28, 2026.

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