National CineMedia, Inc (NCMI) AI Stock Analysis
NCMI AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchNational CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI) operates cinema advertising networks across North America, including its on-screen pre-show Noovie. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, the company generated $249.0M in revenue with an operating margin of -21.9%. While its stock dropped 48.3% over the past year, NCMI maintains a net cash position of $21.2M with a current ratio of 1.84.
- Market cap
- $193.8M
- Revenue (TTM)
- $249.0M
- P/E
- — fwd 73.0x
- 1Y return
- -48.3% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $4.75 130.6% vs last close
Bull case
- Analysts project FY2026 EPS to surge 288.9% to $0.17 alongside expected revenue growth to $264.1M.
- The company maintains a healthy liquidity cushion with $21.2M in net cash and a current ratio of 1.84 as of June 30, 2026.
- Second-quarter results showed operational momentum, with quarterly revenue growing 12.7% and quarterly earnings up 20.8% year-over-year.
Bear case
- The stock experienced severe underperformance, dropping 48.3% over the past year while the S&P 500 gained 16.8%.
- Operating profitability remains pressured, as demonstrated by a trailing twelve-month operating margin of -21.9%.
- The company's five-year share count increased by 1063.7%, reflecting substantial long-term equity dilution.
What National CineMedia does
National CineMedia, Inc., operating via its subsidiary National CineMedia, LLC, manages a cinema advertising network across North America. The company provides targeted advertising solutions to national, regional, and local businesses through its flagship platform, Noovie, which delivers cinema advertising and entertainment pre-shows on movie screens to captive theater audiences. National CineMedia also sells advertising on its Lobby Entertainment Network screens placed in theater lobbies. Beyond cinema screens, it offers digital and mobile advertising through its Noovie Audience Accelerator product and digital properties such as Noovie Shuffle, Noovie Trivia, Name That Movie, and Noovie Arcade.
Growth and profitability
Revenue increased from $114.6M in FY2021 to $249.2M in FY2022, declined to $165.2M in FY2023, and rebounded to $240.8M in FY2024 and $243.2M in FY2025, yielding a five-year revenue CAGR of 21.9%. Operating margins shifted from -59.9% in FY2021 to 2.8% in FY2022, before registering -16.5% in FY2023, -8.1% in FY2024, and -5.7% in FY2025. Net income stood at -$10.6M in FY2025, compared to -$22.3M in FY2024 and $705.2M in FY2023. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 12.7% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings grew 20.8%, bringing trailing twelve-month revenue to $249.0M.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, National CineMedia held $43.1M in cash and short-term investments against $21.9M in total debt, resulting in net cash of $21.2M. The company reported a current ratio of 1.84 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07 against $334.3M in shareholders' equity. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $8.4M and free cash flow was $2.8M. Capital deployment in FY2025 included $5.6M in capital expenditures, $22.0M allocated to share buybacks, and $11.4M paid in dividends.
Valuation and performance
National CineMedia trades at a forward P/E of 73.0x, above the 14.1x median of its US-listed Communication Services peers. Its EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.1x sits below the peer median of 10.0x, while its price-to-sales ratio of 0.8x matches the peer median of 0.8x. With a market capitalization of $193.8M, the stock trades at a price-to-book ratio of 0.6x. Over the past year, the shares dropped 48.3%, underperforming the S&P 500 return of 16.8%. Over five years, the stock dropped 93.5% compared to an 83.0% gain for the benchmark.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage consists of 2 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, and 1 Hold ratings. The mean price target is $4.75, representing a 130.6% upside compared to the last close of $2.06. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $264.1M and EPS of $0.17, reflecting 288.9% EPS growth. Over the last four quarters, National CineMedia has beaten EPS estimates 2 times. The company's next earnings date is scheduled for October 29, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- With a beta of 1.63 and a short interest of 11.7% of float, the stock remains vulnerable to heightened market volatility.
- Persistently negative annual net income, including -$10.6M in FY2025 and -$22.3M in FY2024, poses ongoing profitability risks.
- Analyst projections point to a 29.4% decline in EPS for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2027, falling from $0.17 to $0.12.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this NCMI AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of National CineMedia, Inc (NCMI). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: NCMI income statement, NCMI balance sheet, NCMI key metrics, NCMI analyst forecast, NCMI chart. See the NCMI stock overview for the latest quote and news.
NCMI AI stock analysis FAQ
What does National CineMedia do?
National CineMedia, Inc. operates cinema advertising networks across North America, displaying advertising and entertainment pre-shows like Noovie on movie screens and lobby displays. It also markets digital and mobile campaigns via its Noovie Audience Accelerator platform.
What is National CineMedia's balance sheet position?
As of June 30, 2026, the company held $43.1M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $21.9M, resulting in net cash of $21.2M. Its current ratio stood at 1.84 with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07.
How does NCMI's valuation compare to industry peers?
NCMI trades at a forward P/E of 73.0x compared to the median of 14.1x for its US-listed Communication Services peers. However, its EV/EBITDA of 6.1x is lower than the peer median of 10.0x, and its price-to-sales ratio of 0.8x equals the peer median.
What are analysts expecting for NCMI's earnings?
Analysts have set an average price target of $4.75, which sits 130.6% above the last closing price of $2.06. For FY2026, consensus expectations anticipate EPS of $0.17 on revenue of $264.1M.