MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) AI Stock Analysis
MDA AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchMDA Space Ltd. provides space technology solutions, including satellite communications, robotics, and Earth observation systems. Over the 5-year period from FY2020 to FY2025, revenue achieved a compound annual growth rate of 38.7%, reaching $1.19B in FY2025. In the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue reached $1.87B with a net profit margin of 5.7%.
- Market cap
- $4.58B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.87B
- P/E
- 49.5x fwd 24.6x
- 1Y return
- — S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $46.38 64.3% vs last close
Bull case
- Revenue grew at a 5-year CAGR of 38.7% from FY2020 through FY2025, reaching $1.19B.
- Analysts forecast significant forward expansion, projecting next fiscal year EPS to rise 63.4% to $2.16 on revenue of $2.84B.
- The company maintained a positive net cash position of $13.7M as of June 30, 2026, alongside FY2025 free cash flow of $169.1M.
Bear case
- MDA trades at a trailing P/E of 49.5x and an EV-to-EBITDA of 24.3x, above the median of its US-listed Industrials peers of 24.8x and 13.9x.
- For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly earnings fell 4.8% year-over-year despite a 33.6% rise in revenue.
- The company's current ratio stands at 0.75 as of June 30, 2026, indicating short-term obligations exceed current assets.
What MDA Space does
MDA Space Ltd. delivers space technology solutions and services across Canada, the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally. Its offerings include space-based broadband Internet, direct-to-device satellite communication, IoT connectivity, and the MDA AURORA software-defined digital satellite product line. The company develops autonomous robotics systems such as Canadarm3 and MDA SKYMAKER for space, lunar, and Martian operations, alongside planetary rover locomotion and sensors. Furthermore, MDA provides satellite-generated Earth imagery, command and control defense systems, uncrewed aerial vehicle surveillance services, and operations for the RADARSAT-2 satellite.
Growth and profitability
Annual revenue grew from $377.0M in FY2021 to $473.0M in FY2022, $609.3M in FY2023, and $750.6M in FY2024. In FY2025, revenue increased 58.5% to $1.19B, while net income rose to $79.0M with diluted EPS of $0.61. Operating margin improved from -1.5% in FY2021 to 6.9% in FY2025, while gross margin compressed from 23.4% to 19.9%. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $1.87B with an operating margin of 6.1% and net profit margin of 5.7%. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 33.6% year-over-year, whereas earnings fell 4.8%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, MDA held $280.1M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $266.3M, resulting in net cash of $13.7M. Total assets stood at $2.65B against shareholders' equity of $1.33B. The company recorded a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.20 and a current ratio of 0.75. In FY2025, operating cash flow was $296.7M, funding capital expenditures of $127.7M to generate free cash flow of $169.1M. Over the past five years, the share count expanded by 20.1%.
Valuation and performance
At a last close of $28.22 on October 16, 2026, MDA has a market capitalization of $4.58B and an enterprise value of $5.13B. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 49.5x and a forward P/E of 24.6x, compared to the median of its US-listed Industrials peers of 24.8x and 17.2x, respectively. Its price-to-sales of 2.4x and EV-to-EBITDA of 24.3x also exceed peer medians of 1.5x and 13.9x. Shares have traded between $23.23 and $49.37 over the past 52 weeks with a beta of 0.19, while the S&P 500 recorded a 1-year return of 16.8%.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage consists of 2 Strong Buy ratings and 1 Buy rating, with no Hold or Sell recommendations. The mean price target is $46.38, representing an upside of 64.3% from the last close of $28.22. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $1.32 on revenue of $1.88B. For the subsequent fiscal year, 2 analysts project EPS to increase 63.4% to $2.16 and revenue to grow 51.2% to $2.84B. The next earnings date is November 5, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Gross margin compressed from 27.4% in FY2022 to 19.9% in FY2025, indicating potential long-term cost pressures.
- The company's total share count increased by 20.1% over five years, creating dilution for existing equity holders.
- Capital expenditures reached $127.7M in FY2025, highlighting the substantial capital requirements of space hardware development.
- The stock traded at $28.22 on October 16, 2026, remaining well below its 52-week high of $49.37.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this MDA AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of MDA Space Ltd. (MDA). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: MDA income statement, MDA balance sheet, MDA key metrics, MDA analyst forecast, MDA chart. See the MDA stock overview for the latest quote and news.
MDA AI stock analysis FAQ
Does MDA Space Ltd. pay a dividend?
No, MDA does not pay a dividend. The company directs cash flow, including $296.7M in FY2025 operating cash flow, toward operations and capital investments.
What is MDA's valuation relative to its peer group?
MDA trades at a trailing P/E of 49.5x and an EV-to-EBITDA of 24.3x. Both metrics trade above the median of its US-listed Industrials peers of 24.8x and 13.9x, respectively.
What are analysts forecasting for MDA's earnings?
Analysts estimate EPS of $1.32 for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. For the next fiscal year, 2 analysts project EPS to increase 63.4% to $2.16.
What is MDA's net cash position?
As of June 30, 2026, MDA held $280.1M in cash and short-term investments and $266.3M in total debt, leaving net cash of $13.7M.