Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: MCRIAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

MCRI AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) operates two premier hotel and casino destinations located in Reno, Nevada, and Black Hawk, Colorado. In FY2025, the company generated $545.1M in revenue and $101.4M in net income. As of June 30, 2026, Monarch holds $125.5M in net cash with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02.

Market cap
$2.04B
Revenue (TTM)
$562.0M
P/E
18.2x
fwd 16.9x
1Y return
21.3%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$126.50
11.4% vs last close

Bull case

  • Trailing twelve-month operating margin reached 27.4%, well above the US-listed Consumer Cyclical peer median of 8.8%.
  • The company maintains a strong liquidity profile with $125.5M in net cash and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02 as of June 30, 2026.
  • Free cash flow reached $128.4M in FY2025, enabling $72.7M in share repurchases and $21.9M in dividends.

Bear case

  • Revenue growth moderated to 4.4% in FY2025, and analysts project next fiscal year revenue growth of just 1.8%.
  • Monarch's price-to-sales multiple of 3.6x trades at a substantial premium to the US-listed Consumer Cyclical peer median of 0.7x.
  • The stock has a beta of 1.41, showing greater price volatility than the broader equity market.

What Monarch Casino & Resort does

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. operates two hotel and casino destinations through its subsidiaries. In Reno, Nevada, the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa features approximately 61,000 square feet of casino space, 818 guest rooms and suites, eight dining options, a health spa, and an 8,000 square-foot family entertainment center. In Black Hawk, Colorado, the Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk offers roughly 60,000 square feet of casino space, over 1,100 slot machines, and 40 table games. The Black Hawk property also includes 516 guest rooms and suites, four dining venues, banquet rooms, and a nine-story parking structure accommodating approximately 1,500 vehicles.

Growth and profitability

Annual revenue grew from $395.4M in FY2021 to $477.9M in FY2022, $501.5M in FY2023, $522.2M in FY2024, and $545.1M in FY2025, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 24.2% from FY2020 to FY2025. Net income increased to $101.4M in FY2025 from $72.8M in FY2024, while operating margin rose to 25.1%. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue totaled $562.0M with an operating margin of 27.4% and a profit margin of 20.4%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 4.2% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings increased 23.6%.

MCRI income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Monarch held $138.3M in cash and short-term investments against $12.8M in total debt, creating a net cash position of $125.5M. The current ratio stood at 1.21, with total assets of $741.2M and shareholders' equity of $576.8M. For FY2025, operating cash flow reached $164.7M and free cash flow was $128.4M. Capital expenditures in FY2025 were $36.3M, while cash returned to shareholders included $72.7M in share buybacks and $21.9M in dividends paid.

MCRI balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At the last close of $113.59 on October 16, 2026, Monarch trades at a trailing P/E of 18.2x and a forward P/E of 16.9x, compared to medians of 18.0x and 14.1x for its US-listed Consumer Cyclical peers. The enterprise value of $1.98B implies an EV/EBITDA of 10.5x, which is below the peer median of 11.1x. Its price-to-sales ratio is 3.6x versus the peer median of 0.7x. Over the past year, MCRI gained 21.3% compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500, and over five years it gained 87.4% versus 83.0% for the index.

MCRI key metrics →

MCRI dividend

Monarch pays a quarterly dividend with a forward annual dividend of $1.20, representing a dividend yield of 1.06% as of October 16, 2026. The payout ratio is 19.0%, and the company has paid dividends for 4 consecutive years. Its most recent ex-dividend date was September 1, 2026.

MCRI dividend history →

What analysts expect

Analyst coverage consists of 1 Strong Buy and 5 Hold ratings. The mean price target is $126.50, which is 11.4% above the last close of $113.59. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $6.64 on revenue of $571.0M. For the next fiscal year, 2 analysts expect EPS of $6.89 and revenue of $581.5M. Monarch beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is October 27, 2026.

MCRI forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Gross margin contracted from 53.8% in FY2024 to 45.1% in FY2025.
  • Projected revenue growth of 1.8% for next fiscal year reflects slowing top-line expansion.
  • A beta of 1.41 and short interest at 5.8% of float present potential share price volatility.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this MCRI AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: MCRI income statement, MCRI balance sheet, MCRI key metrics, MCRI analyst forecast, MCRI chart. See the MCRI stock overview for the latest quote and news.

MCRI AI stock analysis FAQ

What properties does Monarch Casino & Resort operate?

Monarch operates the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa in Reno, Nevada, and the Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk in Black Hawk, Colorado.

Does Monarch Casino & Resort pay a dividend?

Yes, Monarch pays a quarterly dividend of $1.20 annualized, which represents a dividend yield of 1.06% as of October 16, 2026.

What is Monarch Casino & Resort's net cash position?

As of June 30, 2026, the company held $138.3M in cash and short-term investments against $12.8M in total debt, resulting in net cash of $125.5M.

What are analysts forecasting for MCRI's earnings and revenue?

For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $6.64 on revenue of $571.0M, followed by an EPS estimate of $6.89 on revenue of $581.5M for the next fiscal year.

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